Matthew70 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Just now, jaxjagman said: meh,oretty boring,seems like the cap was strong enough here Well that line developing coming out of KY that is likely to hit Nashville East means business. Going to be some wind damage from that line almost certain. Multiple broad rotation signatures along it now showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Well that line developing coming out of KY that is likely to hit Nashville East means business. Going to be some wind damage from that line almost certain. Multiple broad rotation signatures along it now showing up. More east of Nashville it seems like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 by the looks that MCS is headed towards East Tn/VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 31 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: by the looks that MCS is headed towards East Tn/VA Yep. Back part is going poof. Guess have to wait till Saturday for more chances of rain. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Yep. Back part is going poof. Guess have to wait till Saturday for more chances of rain. Ugh. Yeah i think the cap was stronger,models have been showing it.You could watch the radar and nothing grew upscale,jmho 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Yeah i think the cap was stronger,models have been showing it.You could watch the radar and nothing grew upscale,jmho I was hoping for a good lighting show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: I was hoping for a good lighting show. me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Windy and extremely heavy rain with this warned storm crossing my area. Still have power so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Lots of limbs, branches down across Knox Co but it doesn’t seem like there’s any significant damage. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Regrettably I could not get on here over the weekend. Looks like the Memphis area got slammed on Sunday. Chattanooga had a good line of storms, but no major wind. Yes those MCSs are notoriously hard to predict. High-res CAMs were garbage until the night before. That's actually not bad for summer MCSs. Models just can't get a handle 36-48 hours out like synoptic winter/spring. 00Z so about 18 hours ahead, models got the East Tennessee MCS blowing on outflow out of Kentucky. Models did a little better with West Tennessee a full day and a half ahead because the focal point was a little closer to the synoptic system. In contrast East Tennessee was mesoscale driven by that outflow from previous convection. Fun forecasting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 30, 2023 Author Share Posted June 30, 2023 Trying to think what was worse from that MCS,the MCS or the winds that came from the OFB,that was some impressive winds when the OFB strolled through about a half hr ago,just about hit my BMW,should have taken a pic but my son dragged the huge brach into the woods in my back yard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 30, 2023 Author Share Posted June 30, 2023 This was a branch that came off our tree in the front yard.It definite took a lightning bolt 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 30, 2023 Author Share Posted June 30, 2023 Sorry about the typo above,i never seen something like this before,..lol.Pretty sure now when the MCS came by the tree got struck by lightning and when the OFB came trough the winds were even more impressive from the OFB than the the MCS and took it down,Pretty cool still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse from KY Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse from KY Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 Question: What is the likelihood, based on what you've seen in the models and trends, of an upgrade for SE KY? For Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 30, 2023 Author Share Posted June 30, 2023 41 minutes ago, Jesse from KY said: Question: What is the likelihood, based on what you've seen in the models and trends, of an upgrade for SE KY? For Friday and Saturday. Looks nothing but wind and maybe hail,the lower levels look meh.Typical summer time storms ,be a long shot to get a upgrade..IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 We had another round of storms last evening.Had my lawn people clean up my yard yesterday and now it dont even look like they touched it this morning again.Had some stronger winds last night.Short range models have been nothing but bad the last few days,so who knows about today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 Short range models are whiffing again URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 427 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southern Illinois Far southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Western Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Several areas of storm clusters are expected to persist and regenerate this afternoon. A couple of these should develop bowing structures capable of producing damaging winds and a brief tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 125 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles west northwest of Salem IL to 5 miles south of Jonesboro AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 428 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northwest Georgia Far southwest North Carolina Middle to southeast Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Slow-moving multicell clusters should spread east-southeast this afternoon with a primary threat of scattered damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY...WEST VIRGINIA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND AND DELAWARE...PARTS OF SOUTHERN OHIO... PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...AND EASTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, and a couple of evolving clusters of storms, will pose a risk for severe wind and hail in a corridor from the Mid South and lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley east-northeastward into the Mid Atlantic region Sunday through Sunday night ...Synopsis... Models indicate that split flow across the eastern Pacific into western North America may become more amplified into and through this period. Within this regime, significant cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed later today through Sunday across the Canadian Prairies, with a trailing cold front advancing southeast of the international border, across much of the Northwest and northern Rockies into the northern Great Plains by 12Z Monday. While mid-level ridging builds downstream of the cyclone, across northwestern Ontario, southern Hudson and James Bays into adjacent portions of Quebec, positively tilted mid-level troughing in a branch to the south is forecast to shift slowly east-northeastward across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. It appears that this will be accompanied by a broad weak surface low, migrating along a diffuse surface frontal zone (initially extending from the northern Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley into the southern Great Plains), and developing surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. ...Mid Atlantic/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into Ark-La-Tex... Along and just south of the weak frontal zone, the boundary-layer may be initially impacted by a considerable amount of remnant convective outflow. How the associated outflow boundaries evolve through midday Sunday remains unclear, but insolation along and to their south likely will contribute to steepening low-level lapse and moderate to large CAPE in the presence of seasonably high moisture content. This appears likely to occur beneath a belt of 30-40+ kt (perhaps stronger where augmented by prior convection) west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, which may prove conducive to renewed strong and organizing convective development Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated supercell structures are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, before potentially damaging wind gusts with evolving clusters becomes the more prominent hazard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 Lots of convection into Mid Tn right now,thought it might die out but seem to have gotten better,with clearing to the west this could rejuvenate storms later on,certainly should be for West Tn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 The tornado in Alberta Canada today left me speechless. It was massive & violent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 We got rocked up on the Plateau(hwy111), had a cell pop up right over us in front of the main line. I'm not sure if we were hit with a microburst or what but it was the worst wind and hail I have experienced since the 2011 outbreak (lived in South knox then). So many old growth trees came down in the area, this event will leave a scar https://streamable.com/3ap17d 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 We have the answers. @Jesse from KY Enhanced both Saturday and Sunday. SPC was likely waiting for boundary placement before forecasting corridors of more straight line wind. This is my first time on the board in a while. Work was a whip last week. I was kind of expecting a small 5% Tor Sunday since they did Saturday. Sunday has greater flow aloft, though Saturday did have the more obvious outflow boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Been at the beach this week and missed all the fun back home. Hopefully we can continue riding the storm wave. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 You didn't miss much. Beach >> non-rotating storms. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1622.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 That MCS last night was super disappointing. Light breezes and 0.04" of rain. And this morning's rain appears to be on a trajectory to mostly miss as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 Potential severe in the eastern Valley tomorrow. Slight tornado potential prior to MCS formation.https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.htmlExcerpt:...TN Valley to the Carolinas/Southeast vicinity... Thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop from Middle/eastern TN into northern AL/GA by early afternoon. Strong instability with MLCAPE values generally from 2000-4000 J/kg and effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support vigorous updrafts. Further south from the surface low, deep-layer flow (above 1 km) will generally be unidirectional from the west. Some modest backed low-level flow is forecast, which could support a tornado or two, but convection is expected to grow upscale into a bowing MCS fairly quickly as storms spread east across eastern TN/northern GA and the Carolinas during the afternoon/evening. Convection should gradually weaken as it approaches the coastal Carolinas after dark. Some uncertainty exists with regards to severe potential with southward extent. Deep-layer flow weakens with southward extent, but if southward propagating cluster develops, some wind risk can be expected into southern AL/GA given degree of instability and a very moist airmass/water-loaded downdrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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