Tn Valley Severe Weather

[Windspeed]

[Windspeed]

10 hours into this crazy outbreak, three well-defined couplets are ongoing simultaneously in West Tennessee. Hope folks there took the watches and warnings seriously.

[yoda]

TOG in Springville

[Windspeed]

Yikes...

[Windspeed]

[Calderon]

Tornado still going, now near Hohenwald in Lewis County. 

Also, spin-up trying near Hendersonville.

[Witness Protection Program]

Hazel Green, AL rated EF-3.  1 killed.  7 dead in the McNairy County, TN (Adamsville, near Selmer) tornado, at least 20 killed so far in the outbreak that began yesterday.

[PowellVolz]

@Holston_River_Rambler did you get any damage this morning? Seen several reports on social media that Morgan Co had some significant damage.


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[PowellVolz]

Holy smokes

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[WxSynopsisDavid]

6 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Holy smokes
 

 

 

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Perfect, instructive video to show the public that when the NWS or us forecasters warn of a tornado, there is a reason we say "seek shelter". That means away from windows, doors, exterior walls, etc. and in an interior room like a closest, in a basement, or a storm shelter. Your life is not worth the picture and video, going viral and gaining "5 minutes of fame".

[PowellVolz]

Perfect, instructive video to show the public that when the NWS or us forecasters warn of a tornado, there is a reason we say "seek shelter". That means away from windows, doors, exterior walls, etc. and in an interior room like a closest, in a basement, or a storm shelter. Your life is not worth the picture and video, going viral and gaining "5 minutes of fame".

There’s so many videos from LR that just blow my mind. People just out enjoying their day, riding around while there’s a 1/2 mile wide tornado right behind them. An hour before that meso ever started to produce, I texted several of my friends and told them if they know anyone in LR, tell them there’s a tornado going to hit somewhere in that town and it could be significant. A friend of mine said…. Let me text my cousin who lives there. 10 min later I get a reply saying, “my cousin said there isn’t any warnings out”. I texted him back and told him to tell his cousin to find shelter and stay there. 2 hours later I get a text back saying his cousin is fine. “I made him go home where he has a basement. His home was about two miles away from the storm so it’s fine but he’s a little shaken up because he was headed to his gym to workout and now it’s gone. He would have been there. I’m not going to lie… it bothered me a little that I helped someone I didn’t know who was about to be at the wrong place at the wrong time.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

On 4/1/2023 at 6:50 PM, PowellVolz said:

@Holston_River_Rambler did you get any damage this morning? Seen several reports on social media that Morgan Co had some significant damage.


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Luckily we were spared. It was mostly north of me. But man the wind Saturday afternoon was probably the worst I've seen even with all the "mixing down" wind events we've had. Power was out most of the afternoon and evening. 

[PowellVolz]

A friend of mine doing some insurance surveying in WTn is sending me some pictures. From everything I know these are site built homes. The first picture had one house there, the second picture had several homes that are now gone. I found it odd that the homes were wiped clean but the tree damage wasn’t what you would expect in at least EF3 damage.








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[PowellVolz]

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[jaxjagman]

Looks like maybe a pretty potent system around next weekend

[jaxjagman]

Miss living in Jacksonville

 

 

https://www.icwr.ca/

 

[*Flash*]

On 4/14/2023 at 11:28 PM, jaxjagman said:

Miss living in Jacksonville

 

 

https://www.icwr.ca/

 

That's an awesome pic! Probably the most majestic spout I've ever seen.

Also, I'm in Port Saint Joe this week taking the fam on vaca. Just curious...what do you miss about Jacksonville? I've only been once. I assume the climatology isn't the answer...

[jaxjagman]

9 hours ago, *Flash* said:

That's an awesome pic! Probably the most majestic spout I've ever seen.

Also, I'm in Port Saint Joe this week taking the fam on vaca. Just curious...what do you miss about Jacksonville? I've only been once. I assume the climatology isn't the answer...

They have the best afternoon storms when they kick off the StJohns River in between the Inter Coastal during the summer time.When i was younger me and a friend were at St Augustine beach when you could drive on it and was drinking some beer.We seen a storm coming behind us but we figured it was just a typical afternoon storm.All the sudden we heard all this banging and the winds cranked up,we turned and looked must have been a EF-O went right by us it cleaned someones upper deck,surf board lawn chairs whatever else,we watched it go right by us then it went into a water spout we watched the surfboard go out about 500 yards into the ocean,i tried to go get it after but it was to far out

.Usually when you are at Jax beach or around that area you see the storm headed towards you but it rarley gets past the Inter Coastal,sea breeze

[PowellVolz]

SPC for 5/16




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[PowellVolz]

Today




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[PowellVolz]

I’ve talked about this before in my thoughts about ETn severe weather…. Storm movement today will be west to east or maybe even a little NW to SE. shear isn’t all that great but it’s just enough. The biggest thing with storm motion is the low and mid level winds will intersect the cells at a better angle because of the storm moving SE.


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[1234snow]

Some things you don’t see in a SPC enhanced outlook too much: “Some larger population centers in the risk area includes: Johnson City, TN...Kingsport, TN...Bristol, TN...Morristown, TN...Bristol, VA...”

Also a 5% tornado area

[nrgjeff]

Part of me wants to be on the stretch of I-75 north of Knoxville, close to Kentucky, that's up on a high ridge. One can see forever. Pretty sure neat things could be photographed up there, even if just clouds and lightning. 

Otherwise most of the terrain up there is unfavorable. I would like the intersection of the East KY outflow with the synoptic front, but I have to pass. Though not common, severe wx can and does happen in the mountains. 

[jaxjagman]

Lets see those shelfie pics in the mountains

[1234snow]

A few tornado warnings in Kentucky. One in Richmond, KY is a small cell but has a nice hook already.

[nrgjeff]

Outflow boundary and backed winds there gives those storms just enough to rotate. Most of the tornado warnings today are riding that outflow boundary to the ESE. 

[1234snow]

Tornado warning now for Bland and Tazewell counties in Virginia.

[1234snow]

Tornado warning for Lee, Wise and Scott with some rotation over Pennington Gap.

[PowellVolz]

Lets see those shelfie pics in the mountains

From my house…..










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[Runman292]

Enhanced risk for most of TN including the western half of East TN this evening.

...Mid-South/TN Valley region through tonight...
   Around the southern periphery of a closed midlevel low over the
   upper Great Lakes, embedded shortwave troughs will move eastward
   over the lower OH and TN Valleys through early tonight.  An
   associated surface cyclone will likewise develop eastward along and
   just north of the OH River, as a trailing pre-frontal trough and
   cold front move southeastward across the Mid-South and southern
   Plains through tonight.  Clouds are fairly widespread as of late
   morning from the southern Appalachians northward into the OH Valley
   and westward into the mid MS Valley.  A little south of the thicker
   clouds and surface cyclone track, there is a corridor of stronger
   surface heating from south central KY into the Mid-South, where
   temperatures will warm into the 80s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints. 
   These surface conditions beneath midlevel lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km
   will drive MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg with minimal convective
   inhibition.

   Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid
   afternoon in the zone of weak low-level confluence/convergence
   associated with an embedded midlevel speed max, along the edge of
   the thicker clouds from central KY into western TN and AR.  The
   moderate-strong buoyancy and midlevel flow near 40 kt will support a
   mix of multicell clusters/line segments capable of producing
   damaging winds and large hail.  There will be somewhat stronger
   deep-layer flow/shear and a little greater potential for supercells
   across the Mid-South later this afternoon/evening.  The convection
   will continue to spread eastward and southeastward across the TN
   Valley early tonight, with some continued damaging-wind threat.

   Other scattered thunderstorms could form this afternoon/evening to
   the west of the thicker clouds across the southern Appalachians. 
   The stronger wind profiles/vertical shear will be west and north of
   this area through the afternoon, so the primary severe threats will
   be damaging downburst winds and marginally severe hail this
   afternoon/evening.  Uncertainty increases with eastward extent due
   to the widespread clouds/rain from northeast GA into western NC and
   vicinity, and the primary increase in flow/shear will tend to occur
   after the muted diurnal cycle.