John1122 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Not sure how they didn't issue a tornado watch here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 A lot of thunder and lightning and rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 Maybe starting to recycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Possible multiple vortices per WBIR . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: Not sure how they didn't issue a tornado watch here. This was posted 25 minutes ago. Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed across eastern Tennessee and potentially into far western North Carolina. DISCUSSION...A supercell has moved east of watch 79 across eastern Tennessee. Additional storm development is questionable as widespread thunderstorms have developed to the west with anvil debris across much of eastern Tennessee. However, at least scattered supercell development remains possible through early evening. The MRX VWP currently shows less than 100 m2/s2 0-1km SRH with the stronger low-level jet to the west. This wind profile is expected to increase after 00Z as this low-level jet slowly moves east. A tornado watch will eventually be needed this evening, as low-level shear and storm coverage increases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 17 minutes ago, John1122 said: Not sure how they didn't issue a tornado watch here. Finally got that Tornado watch until 2 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Found a Facebook video with the Sunbright tornado https://www.facebook.com/justan.spurling/videos/1654843611997812 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Found a Facebook video with the Sunbright tornadohttps://www.facebook.com/justan.spurling/videos/1654843611997812 . 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 In the past hour the low level winds have really picked up. Feels like it’s directly out of the south. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Looks like a line is forming west of Nashville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Thankfully all the ingredients were not there & this system was more hype than bite. Always good to be prepared. Wx will never be fully predictable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Sadly Taiwan has been hit by 2 back to back major earthquakes. 7.5 & 7.4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 hour ago, Matthew70 said: Sadly Taiwan has been hit by 2 back to back major earthquakes. 7.5 & 7.4 More end times events ramping up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Monday morning got out of the gate quickly, but the afternoon / evening underperformed forecasts in our region. On 4/1/2024 at 1:20 PM, nrgjeff said: I suppose April climo they gotta drop the 10% tor for Tuesday. NAM suite is quite linear and positive tilt. LLJ never restrengthens or backs late Tuesday. Now the Globals do so, and I figure CAMs like RRFS and HRRR do too; because, they go line of pearls. My gut says the NAM but it has a cool bias. That said the NAM can sniff out LLJ failures. So if you get anxious about severe, don't fret just yet. If you chase, it's conditional. I'll be tied down with work so no chase plans. NAM sniffed out the issue Monday afternoon and evening. LLJ didn't ever recover here. It did Ohio Valley, enough for them to overcome our cutting off moisture. Then the Deep South had some classic late evening. Severe is often a headache to forecast outside the Plains. Couple tor reports North Alabama. Of course the Tennessee Cumberland Plateau got its obligatory tor. I believe the elevation, while staying relatively flat, gets greater low level flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 The Midwest these last 2 days have been hit hard by tornadoes. Then yesterday China was hit by a strong tornado. 5 dead & 33 injured. Video of it is really crazy. Its was like a the whole storm was the tornado itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 12 hours ago, Matthew70 said: Pretty fascinating that coastal CA has had more warnings than OHX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Forget trade wars and tariffs. USA and China want a tornado war. Well, it's better than a military war! Indeed severe season has made the shift out to the Plains. If you are weather anxious here in the South, you can start to relax. Yeah, we have more of the season to go, but the wedge outbreak season is pretty much over in the South. Now we can still get plenty of mesoscale setups, and I intend to find them. I might have used up my kitchen capital on the eclipse, so a Plains trip is questionable this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 I expect parts of the Mid-South and Midwest to join the SPC Day 4-8 day outlook in the next day or two; so, look Friday or Saturday. It's wild how the Great Plains could get whacked Monday, then get quiet. Then the trough slows down to gradually work through the Mid-South and Midwest (IL/IN/OH). Each day a wave slides around the base and ejects out. LLJ responds. Kentucky could get clipped next week. Feels late in the season but it's not. Early May is still the heart of the season. Most of those states peak in May too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 2 Author Share Posted May 2 Pretty active April,not much of anything in Tn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 On 5/2/2024 at 5:42 PM, jaxjagman said: Pretty active April,not much of anything in Tn Looks like multi days of all modes of severe wx this week. SPC has pretty strong wording. Spreading into middle TN late Tuesday into Wednesday. Flooding rains looks very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 5 Author Share Posted May 5 Geeze !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 5 Author Share Posted May 5 On 5/2/2024 at 2:08 PM, nrgjeff said: I expect parts of the Mid-South and Midwest to join the SPC Day 4-8 day outlook in the next day or two; so, look Friday or Saturday. It's wild how the Great Plains could get whacked Monday, then get quiet. Then the trough slows down to gradually work through the Mid-South and Midwest (IL/IN/OH). Each day a wave slides around the base and ejects out. LLJ responds. Kentucky could get clipped next week. Feels late in the season but it's not. Early May is still the heart of the season. Most of those states peak in May too. Like freaking bombs...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 5 Author Share Posted May 5 On 5/4/2024 at 4:56 PM, Matthew70 said: Looks like multi days of all modes of severe wx this week. SPC has pretty strong wording. Spreading into middle TN late Tuesday into Wednesday. Flooding rains looks very likely. Best day of severe right now seems to be Tues/Wed like you said,low level shear picks up Tuesday into Wed,other wise looks more wind and possibly severe hail.But i agree flooding could be a issue with training cells.Pollen has been pretty brutal here,its good to get some rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 I'm gonna need that crap to stay north of the Ohio River. Mid-South will probably invade Tennessee Wednesday evening with straight line winds though. So long as the WF or rain enhanced outflow boundary does not get into Tennessee - stays Ohio River Valley - (most of) the tornadoes should stay up there too. No reason to hype the Tennessee Valley. It's actually still peak season, early May is just more late April; however, the synoptics situation favors the Ohio River Valley. Mid-South is kind of on the borderline. Again augmented boundaries could still play a role, but the synoptic situation overall is north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 Perhaps it is just me, but it feels like a lot of severe weather doesn't impact East TN until sunset or later when instability is lower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 7 Author Share Posted May 7 National Weather Service Nashville TN 210 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Radar is clear at forecast time. Same goes for the satellite. With small to almost zero dew point depressions, fog has already started to develop in many areas across Middle TN. Right now, only a couple of spots are showing anything dense, but this may change over the next couple of hours. Winds at about 1kft are 20 kts off the OHX VAD profiler and this may be enough to keep us from getting widespread dense stuff, but an advisory may become necessary in the next couple of hours. Well, I`m glad I bumped PoPs from what the NBM gave me yesterday morning. However, storms WAY overperformed yesterday afternoon from what I was seeing in the models at this time yesterday morning. CAPE was near 2000 J/Kg as expected, but even with meager shear, storms were able to produce large hail, damaging wind and from the look of it, possibly a couple tornadoes. That does not bode well for the next couple of days because forecast soundings over the next 72 hours look much more severe than yesterday. Let`s start with today. Remnants of yesterday`s High Risk area over the Plains merged into a QLCS last night, which is now wreaking havoc over western Missouri. This QLCS feature will continue pushing eastward through the morning hours and while latest CAMs have it falling apart upstream from us late this morning, the residual outflows from this system may very well provide us with the lift I thought we may be missing today. Forecast soundings are healthy. 2500+ CAPE values, lapse rates similar to yesterday and much better shear values than I was seeing for yesterday`s storms. For these reasons, while I think damaging wind gusts (60+ mph) and large hail will be the main threats, any storms that develop will likely be rotating, so while lower on the totem pole, I can`t rule out a tornado threat. In addition, with the amount of rain we`ve received over the last couple of days and PWs in the 90th percentile this afternoon, localized flash flooding is also possible. Please don`t sleep on the flash flood threat and heed any warnings that may be issued. Ok. That`s just the afternoon. Almost across the board, CAMs are showing additional development tonight as another wave passes through the region. While we lose some of the heating of the day, CAPE values only fall into the 1000-1500 J/Kg range. This means we`ll hold onto plenty of instability during the overnight hours. Deep layer shear holds steady around 40 kts and helicities are such to sustain updrafts. This means we`ll hold an overnight severe threat, as well, with any additional storms that develop. It also means that we`re going to be dealing with overnight severe potential two nights in a row. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 While today and tonight`s severe threat is healthy, that might make Wednesday`s severe potential super human. In fact, with the forecast soundings I`m seeing I am becoming a little worried. As tonight`s storms wane towards daybreak, the boundary created by them is actually being picked up in some of our models. This is unusual and may serve as a quasi-warm front that is expected to slowly lift back to the north during the late morning and early afternoon hours on Wednesday. As it lifts, there is some signal of convection developing along this boundary. With forecast soundings showing 3000+ CAPE south of the boundary, plenty of shear and mid-level lapse rates closing in on 7.0 deg/km, there is some concern of discrete supercell development Wednesday afternoon. Supercell composites closing in on 10.0 and STP values nearing 2.0 suggest a fairly decent chance of tornado development. In addition, lapse rates only get worse through the afternoon. This means large hail (1.5 inches or larger) is going to be possible. While the afternoon potential for severe weather is more on the isolated to scattered level, yet another round of much more widespread storms is still expected Wednesday night. Again, this is an all-mode severe weather threat overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning, with damaging wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes and flash flooding all possible. The next 48-60 hours is going to be VERY active across Middle TN. This is not a time to fret, however. Take this morning and review your safety plan for you and your family. Know where you need to go for shelter if you go under a warning. Wherever that shelter may be, have essential items in there waiting for you. Phone chargers, NOAA Weather Radios, helmets for the kiddos, just to name a few. If you need additional support for making a plan, please visit ready.gov/plan to help you put one together. Don`t wait until you go under a warning. Be prepared. Especially with overnight severe threats for the next two nights. Don`t go to bed without having your phone fully charged and the volume turned up so you can wake up and get to shelter. Once we get through early Thursday morning, I think the severe threat is over. There is an outlier signal from the NAM that the front may not get all the way through Middle TN on Thursday and we could see additional storms Thursday night across our south, but let`s deal with that once we get through the next two days. By Friday, temperatures relax back into the 70s and while the GFS is suggesting some showers and storms on Saturday, most models do not, so hopefully we can remain dry for several days after Thursday morning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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