jaxjagman Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 Plus the models still seem to showing a risk towards Alabama/Tn line vicinity later on IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 17 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Not sure about that,storm mode looks like it should last until we start to lose diurnal heating ,severe should last until then at least..IMO Yeah, I see what you're seeing upon further review (hence, the post edit). Looking at the latest HRRR, I think western middle TN needs to definitely keep their guard up through 4/5 pm CT as there may be a few cells that pull a repeat of what was happening near Sharon earlier. I’m hoping things start to improve tonight, especially the further east you go from metro, but the window is probably longer than I initially suspected. A few hours ago, I was still thinking the storm mode was too messy but it sure seems we're seeing greater instability. I’m not liking these latest trends… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Paducah KY 158 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 KYC219-092015- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0060.000000T0000Z-231209T2015Z/ Todd KY- 158 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN TODD COUNTY... At 158 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located just west of Guthrie, or 8 miles northeast of Clarksville, moving northeast at 45 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Guthrie around 205 PM CST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3665 8710 3664 8710 3664 8734 3669 8733 3682 8706 TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 247DEG 39KT 3665 8725 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Paducah KY 159 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southern Todd County in south central Kentucky... * Until 230 PM CST. * At 159 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 4 miles west of Guthrie, or 8 miles northeast of Clarksville, moving northeast at 40 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Guthrie around 205 PM CST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3675 8706 3664 8706 3664 8731 3670 8732 3682 8706 3677 8705 TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 245DEG 36KT 3666 8725 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 Mesoscale Discussion 2305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Western/central KY...Western/middle TN...Northwest MS...Eastern AR...Northwest AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 714... Valid 091959Z - 092130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 714 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes and isolated severe wind/hail will continue through the afternoon, with storm coverage expected to increase with time. DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells is ongoing early this afternoon from western TN into eastern AR, with occasional rotating cells noted within a larger storm cluster across western KY. A supercell cluster currently approaching the TN/KY border produced an earlier apparent tornado in northwest TN, with another tornado recently noted just southwest of the KHPX radar. The other cells along the broken line will continue to pose a threat of all severe hazards as they move east-northeastward. These cells are ongoing along and just ahead of a composite outflow boundary/cold front that will continue to move eastward this afternoon. Deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary may encourage an increase in storm coverage and a transition to more of a mixed mode with time, though embedded supercells will likely continue to be possible through the afternoon, with all severe hazards possible. The greatest short-term tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) will likely continue to be focused from far northwest MS into western/middle TN, southern KY, and eventually extreme northwest AL, where the most favorable overlap of low-level/deep-layer shear (including 0-1 km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2 noted on regional VWPs and objective mesoanalyses) and instability (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will persist this afternoon, prior to the arrival of the front. This area is being upgraded to an Enhanced Risk (driven by 10% tornado probabilities) in the upcoming 20Z outlook. Also, downstream watch issuance will likely be needed later this afternoon, as storms approach a larger portion of middle TN into northwest AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. Should have been issued hours ago....just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 https://x.com/NC5_LelanStatom/status/1733584838408425710?s=20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 16 hours ago, Windspeed said: Solid tweet. Certainly, didn't foresee lapse rates being so steep at the critical layers/instability values being as high as they are when the day started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 https://x.com/clarksvilleclay/status/1733578669933666550?s=46&t=KMZWtmm9xSWkLJtvZXn39g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Unbelievable what is unfolding here in mid TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 New confirmed tornado in northern Dickson with a healthy CC drop east of Slayden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Supercell west of Nashville is looking prime to produce a strong tornado. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Supercell west of Nashville is looking prime to produce a strong tornado.Strong tornado may be in progress now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Nashville TN 409 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Davidson County in Middle Tennessee... East central Dickson County in Middle Tennessee... Central Cheatham County in Middle Tennessee... South central Robertson County in Middle Tennessee... * Until 445 PM CST. * At 409 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near White Bluff, or 8 miles southwest of Ashland City, moving east at 40 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Ashland City around 415 PM CST. Joelton around 430 PM CST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Beaman Park, Whites Creek, and Bells Bend. This includes the following highways... Interstate 40 between mile markers 201 and 211. Interstate 65 between mile markers 85 and 97. Interstate 24 between mile markers 30 and 49. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3638 8673 3634 8672 3633 8670 3632 8670 3632 8668 3617 8662 3608 8724 3621 8727 3644 8678 TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 249DEG 35KT 3619 8716 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Another now confirmed south of Springfield, TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 2nd Tornado Emergency..north of the 1st one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 2nd Tornado Emergency..north of the 1st one There isn't one in effect. RadarScope is having some weird problem on cell phone apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Calderon said: There isn't one in effect. RadarScope is having some weird problem on cell phone apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Exactly, it's nowhere in the warning text. It has this pulsing polygon with it when you click on it but warning text says otherwise. No issues on the MacBook app like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Horrible to see this happening. This has turned into a min outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 39 minutes ago, andyhb said: Supercell west of Nashville is looking prime to produce a strong tornado. Ch 2 news here are showing live vid of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 It's going to hit the DuPont Plant, if not within a half mile. And less than 2 miles north of the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Quote ..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR GALLATIN AND HENDERSONVILLE... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...SOUTHERN SUMNER AND NORTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTIES... At 452 PM CST, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over Hendersonville, or 10 miles southwest of Gallatin, moving east at 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 I’m sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Some of the exact same areas hit by the F3 in 2006 are hit again in Gallatin, just now including the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 https://x.com/TikovonlaberWX/status/1733624586376233148?s=20 In Gallatin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Something just exploded in Madison/Hendersonville when hit by the tornado. I'd guess a small storage tank, tanker truck, or railroad tank car. Google Traffic suggests the tornado crossed the railroad junction in Madison. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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