Tn Valley Severe Weather

[Runman292]

According to MRX, the high in Oak Ridge was supposed to be 76 degrees. It's 80 degrees with the sun out.

[Wintersnow888]

Thinking the gust front just came through, but it wasn't very strong, dogs are freaking out though

[nrgjeff]

Wow, I love the enthusiasm in here! Relative to past years this is actually hype. Might yet get some severe wx enthusiasts on the board, haha.

Temps have over achieve; so, CAPE is higher than forecast. Dews are as forecast, with the higher temps, which means the LCLs are not particularly low and grungy. MRX may be right that LCLs are favorable.. for chasing.

Deep layer shear is there, and the upper levels are stout along I-40. However the LLJ did not report for duty. Probably not a big tornado day.

[Dsty2001]

Temp got to 82 here, hoping to see some good lightning at least!

[Wintersnow888]

Rain coming down hard and we have gotten some pretty strong cracks of lightning and thunder, should be heading everyone else's way east of me

[VOLtage]

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop with storms that initiate
   along a cold front, posing a threat for damaging gusts. A couple
   instances of severe hail/tornadoes are also possible.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have struggled to develop within the warm sector
   environment 50-150 nautical miles ahead of the cold front despite
   ample diurnal heating and the presence of adequate buoyancy.
   However, storms have been developing along and immediately behind
   the cold front over the past hour. An uptick in storm coverage and
   intensity is possible over the next few hours as the cold front
   continues to progress eastward. The 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, driven by
   60-65 F surface dewpoints and steep low-level lapse rates, along
   with 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that damaging gusts may
   be the main threat with the more organized multicells/transient
   supercells that can develop. However, a few surface observations
   along a CHA to CPF line show some backing of the surface winds. Any
   storms that can mature amid these back winds may exhibit at least
   brief bouts of strong low-level rotation, with severe hail and a
   couple of tornadoes possible.

 

[MattPetrulli]

1 minute ago, VOLtage said:

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop with storms that initiate
   along a cold front, posing a threat for damaging gusts. A couple
   instances of severe hail/tornadoes are also possible.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have struggled to develop within the warm sector
   environment 50-150 nautical miles ahead of the cold front despite
   ample diurnal heating and the presence of adequate buoyancy.
   However, storms have been developing along and immediately behind
   the cold front over the past hour. An uptick in storm coverage and
   intensity is possible over the next few hours as the cold front
   continues to progress eastward. The 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, driven by
   60-65 F surface dewpoints and steep low-level lapse rates, along
   with 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that damaging gusts may
   be the main threat with the more organized multicells/transient
   supercells that can develop. However, a few surface observations
   along a CHA to CPF line show some backing of the surface winds. Any
   storms that can mature amid these back winds may exhibit at least
   brief bouts of strong low-level rotation, with severe hail and a
   couple of tornadoes possible.

 

Curious if thats a tornado watch or not, the mature cells NW of Knoxville are showing at least mid-level rotation

[MattPetrulli]

Also am curious if this is a boundary or not, will be interesting to see any interaction with that cell entering NW suburbs of Knoxville or any cell that nears us later

[VOLtage]

 

[VOLtage]

Keeping a close eye on this cluster of cells near the TN/AL border. They'll be moving into a pretty favorable kinematic environment.

 

[8283 El Nino Baby]

Temp was 79 3:49 and it is now it is 57 at 4:16 and still dropping.

[John1122]

Lots of lightning and thunder, along with heavy rain. Not much wind or any hail or anything here. 

[dwagner88]

Lost power for a few minutes and had several bouts of dime sized hail. Didn’t look too bad on radar, but it really blew up right over the house. 

[PowellVolz]

Lots of kinks in the line




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[Runman292]

Had a good downpour and a few rumbles of thunder in Oak Ridge. Not a lot of wind was at my house.

[PowellVolz]

Had a good downpour and a few rumbles of thunder in Oak Ridge. Not a lot of wind was at my house.

Yeah that was a lot of nothing


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[Greyhound]

Yeah that was a lot of nothing


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My wife said the same thing.

Is that it for the night???? Looking at radar to the west doesn’t look that impressive.

[VOLtage]

Well that was a bust, in a good way.

[Runman292]

6 minutes ago, Greyhound said:

My wife said the same thing.

Is that it for the night???? Looking at radar to the west doesn’t look that impressive.

That was the front, so that's it for the severe weather.

[PowellVolz]

My wife said the same thing.

Is that it for the night???? Looking at radar to the west doesn’t look that impressive.

My wife says that but it has nothing to do with the weather


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[Dsty2001]

Heavy rain and lightning, not a lot of wind but the light show was super impressive!  With the way 2022 has went so far, stood outside for 10 minutes and decided not to press my luck lol

[Dsty2001]

Looks like more storms popping off to the west

[jaxjagman]

Either they were caught off guard or they are just plain stupid

[PowellVolz]

Wednesday is looking like a possible high end threat for west Tennessee


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[Matthew70]

Thinking more ARK & north.  

[jaxjagman]

Mis South looks pretty juicy Wed afternoon.TT'S 57-58.Already a 30% hatch for tornadoes

 

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely across a
   large portion of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest,
   Ohio Valley, and Southeast on Wednesday. Large to very large hail,
   damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible. Strong tornadoes
   may occur.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough/low will continue to eject eastward from the Plains
   across much of the MS Valley, Midwest and Great Lakes regions on
   Wednesday. A surface low is likewise expected to advance generally
   eastward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the period. A
   trailing cold front will sweep eastward Wednesday across much of the
   MS/OH Valleys and Southeast as well.

   ...Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Southeast...
   A substantial severe threat is evident for a large part of these
   regions ahead of the cold front. Pronounced large-scale ascent
   associated with the negatively tilted upper trough will likely
   overspread the warm sector through the day. 60s surface dewpoints
   will be present ahead of the front, with greater low-level moisture
   likely in place from the lower OH Valley/Mid-South into the lower MS
   Valley and Southeast. Diurnal heating of this airmass and the
   continued presence of steepened lapse rates aloft should allow for
   moderate to strong instability to develop by Wednesday afternoon.
   Deep-layer shear generally in excess of 45-50 kt will support
   organized severe thunderstorms, and low-level shear is also forecast
   to be quite strong. Pre-frontal convection appears possible across
   parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley vicinity through the day.
   If this occurs, then supercells posing a threat for all severe
   hazards, including strong tornadoes, would be likely. Linear
   convection is also expected to develop along much of the length of
   the front, and this activity will pose a threat for both damaging
   winds and QLCS tornadoes as it spreads eastward Wednesday afternoon
   and evening.

   Have opted to include a broad Enhanced Risk to account for numerous
   to potentially widespread damaging winds, and several tornadoes. The
   main uncertainty precluding greater severe probabilities at this
   time is the possible effect of early-day convection across the lower
   MS Valley/Mid-South on prospects for substantial destabilization
   later in the afternoon. Given the strong flow and sufficient
   instability forecast, at least an isolated severe threat should
   continue with eastward extent across the OH Valley, TN Valley, and
   Southeast Wednesday night.

   ..Gleason.. 04/11/2022

[nrgjeff]

Wednesday April 6 follow up. Yes @PowellVolz that's my intended message back on Wed. At any rate the northern boundary intersection passed over Chattanooga. As expected, we just got some wind. However it was a little more interesting than I'd expected.

First of all, going with a Kansas flag is the only way to go last week! Found my little perch in Chattanooga at US Express, a high spot with a good view. Also where I 1st saw Comet NEOWISE with binoculars. In town, but just doing recon before the dark skies. US Express is a sweet spot, both literally and figuratively in my heart. OK back to Wed. April 6.

Then this gets going to my southwest over Lookout Mtn. Thankfully it dissipated without incident, because that's Downtown and other densely populated areas. Look back at radar archive and it had weak rotation.

Then to my north a horseshoe cloud forms, sometimes an indicator of rear-flank and possible rotation, but I ignored it for a few minutes. Alas the check of radar archive and it was the better rotation. Not pictured. Think common bow horse shoe.

Finally this happens! I gave chase to the horseshoe a little late for proper (aggressive) viewing position. I'm SAFE position with it to my north, but I can't see anything. Wind damage is later reported with the feature between Colledgedale and Ooltewah. I can confirm strong wind from west and small hail. Wed. April 6.

[nrgjeff]

Now for today Monday April 11, I have to post this. (See my April 6 follow-up previous page.) Little outside of our Region, but today so classic. Mon. April 11 boundaries for the win!

First the black X is probably not severe though near boundaries, where they kind of merge in with a synoptic front. Not a classic intersection though. See MD 446. However some strong storms.

Red X is classic outflow intersection with front, aligned right for severe. HRRR goes bonkers with supercells in Arkansas. We'll see. Probably something more in between like ARW / NSSL. NAM seemed underdone. FV3 looks good, more bullish than ARW but not HRRR fest. Despite rising heights, it's gonna go. Very much looks late spring like. Setup is May Plains. Terrain is.. Virtual chase from home, haha!

[PowellVolz]

Now for today Monday April 11, I have to post this. (See my April 6 follow-up previous page.) Little outside of our Region, but today so classic. Mon. April 11 boundaries for the win!
First the black X is probably not severe though near boundaries, where they kind of merge in with a synoptic front. Not a classic intersection though. See MD 446. However some strong storms.
Red X is classic outflow intersection with front, aligned right for severe. HRRR goes bonkers with supercells in Arkansas. We'll see. Probably something more in between like ARW / NSSL. NAM seemed underdone. FV3 looks good, more bullish than ARW but not HRRR fest. Despite rising heights, it's gonna go. Very much looks late spring like. Setup is May Plains. Terrain is.. Virtual chase from home, haha!

Very nice. Love your breakdowns of severe events


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[PowellVolz]

Very nice. Love your breakdowns of severe events


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And @jaxjagman also


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