EasternLI Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 That Pacific ridge looks to get cut off next week. Models are definitely handling what happens beyond that differently from each other. I suspect that's being reflected in the ensemble runs lately. That's what I'm thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 20 hours ago, EasternLI said: The tropical stuff is another area with question marks. There's a good amount of spread amongst the members in that regard. Still a lot of questions and doesn't inspire much confidence in anything currently. Uncertainty reigns for now. I think that you put your finger on it. The 360 hr EPS below is a La Niña phase 6 for January on the Pacific side. So it may be really struggling in where to place the convection from run to run. We probably need to see what it does in the next few runs. Image below courtesy of the New England forum 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I think that you put your finger on it. The 360 hr EPS below is a La Niña phase 6 for January on the Pacific side. So it may be really struggling in where to place the convection from run to run. We probably need to see what it does in the next few runs. Me posting the below images below is not an endorsement of what the model is showing since this was a big continuity jump in one run. This is for informational purposes only. Wait a few more runs to see how the tropical forcing shakes out. Image below courtesy of the New England forum Yeah, I mean there's a combination of factors happening in the upcoming period. Just a challenging set of circumstances right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, I mean there's a combination of factors happening in the upcoming period. Just a challenging set of circumstances right now. Most pattern changes are challenging and difficult to predict...........but I think we will have opportunities down the road in the not too distant future...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Most pattern changes are challenging and difficult to predict...........but I think we will have opportunities down the road in the not too distant future...... Something is going to happen to that Pacific Ridge. So we'll roll the dice with that for now. I don't have anything against the uncertainty other than it's kind of frustrating. At the same time, it keeps us alert. We're just trying to read the tea leaves here. But someone keeps rearranging them!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Eps looks like garbage ? We finally get a positive pna. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 We will never in this area have a sustained perfect or near perfect pattern for snow and cold. Never have, never will. Arguing that any good patterns may be transitory is literally arguing against nothing, that no one has claimed. Discuss the pattern, sure. Discussing that it wont last? Ok, say it once. There, convo over. Doesnt need to be repeated (or tweet pasted). now back to discussing the weather. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, I mean there's a combination of factors happening in the upcoming period. Just a challenging set of circumstances right now. The convection on the 12 EPS 360 forecast is strung out across the phase 6 and 7 regions. 12z 360 hr EPS forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 This is interesting. From someone who is well respected. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: The convection on the 12 EPS 360 forecast is strung out across the phase 6 and 7 regions. 12z 360 hr EPS forecast Yeah, I was flipping through the individual members. They were all over the place later in the run. The general consensus still appears to be a jog east on the mean via VP200. But it's not a huge confidence booster seeing that the individuals are doing that afterwards. 850 winds take a jog east too on the mean so that helps. Still fairly strong easterlies in the IO throughout that run. Which are being shown to expand east a bit more into the Indonesia area at the same time. So this will be interesting to keep track of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, I was flipping through the individual members. They were all over the place later in the run. The general consensus still appears to be a jog east on the mean via VP200. But it's not a huge confidence booster seeing that the individuals are doing that afterwards. 850 winds take a jog east too on the mean so that helps. Still fairly strong easterlies in the IO throughout that run. Which are being shown to expand east a bit more into the Indonesia area at the same time. So this will be interesting to keep track of. Yeah, the 12z GEPS was the same as the 12 EPS at 360 hrs. Looks like a blend of phase 6 and phase 7 forcing. That’s where the standing wave has been stuck for a while now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the 12z GEPS was the same as the 12 EPS at 360 hrs. Looks like a blend of phase 6 and phase 7 forcing. That’s where the standing wave has been stuck for a while now. That is certainly a plausible possibility with that warm pool in mind. The ironic thing about your example there is that if that was shifted east by about 20 degrees or so. It would set up a pretty stunning pattern on the Pacific side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 29 minutes ago, EasternLI said: That is certainly a plausible possibility with that warm pool in mind. The ironic thing about your example there is that if that was shifted east by about 20 degrees or so. It would set up a pretty stunning pattern on the Pacific side. Geps look great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Geps look great Yeah, that works. What I meant with the tropical comment, was that ridge would be parked right on the PNA domain if we had that. It would be even better than that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 GFS still persistent with that snow early Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Beautiful 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 That looks like a deep winter look. American guidance seems intent on rolling that ridge forward. Instead of retrograding it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Hopefully the American guidance has a clue here. It seems to help facilitate more damage to the strat with the Ural ridge building in. Interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Gfs ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: what's scary is its only about 5 days away - what a bust if we get nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: what's scary is its only about 5 days away - what a bust if we get nothing Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Cmc took a huge step towards the gfs tonight. Sometimes we find a way to snow on these frontal waves in years like this….we shall see what happens 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 yeah... this system is pretty intriguing if that southern stream energy can separate enough. if so, it would be able to amplify and become something like the 00z GFS, which is a gorgeous solution at 500mb. cold air would not be a problem given a good source region in Canada and a rapidly developing SLP the ECMWF made a step towards holding the SS energy back, which is the main thing to look for here imo the GEFS is also more in favor of greater stream separation as well as a more amplified southern stream... these both bode well for this event more amplified ridging out west as well, this likely helps the SS gain amplitude 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 I wouldn't get my hopes up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Ukie at 96hr looking gfsish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Ukie at 96hr looking gfsish Looks like the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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