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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

The historic +13.3 departure in December 2015 marked the shift to much warmer winters. This January is only the 5th winter month out of the last 20 with below normal temperatures. The coldest departure month was this January at -3.2

 

NYC


Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

Feb 21….-1.1

Jan 21….+2.2

Dec 20…+1.7

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

Pretty nuts in a Niña winter too.  How many of us cold- and snow-lovers were banking on a cold January back in December when the hostile PAC seemed to have us doomed?  Post Dec. '15's been a pretty wacky period of extreme patterns and events.  Is there anything else like it on record?

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A cold January is concluding. The mean temperature at New York City's Central Park was 30.3°, which was 3.4° below normal. January 2022 was the coldest January since 2015 when the temperature averaged 29.9° and the coldest month since February 2015 (mean: 23.9°).

In terms of snowfall, Atlantic City's 33.2" set a new January mark. The old record was 20.3" in 1987). It was also tied with February 2003 for the 4th snowiest month on record. 5 of the 10 snowiest months have occurred since 2000, including 3 of the 4 months with 30" or more snowfall. Records go back to 1945.

Islip's 31.8" made 2022 the 2nd snowiest January on record and 3rd snowiest month of all-time. 5 of the 10 snowiest months have occurred since 2000, including all 5 months with 30" or more snowfall. Records go back to 1963.

February will likely finish somewhat warmer than normal, but it won't likely join some of the recent years with 40° or above monthly mean temperatures.

Generally colder than normal readings will continue through midweek. Afterward, it will turn briefly milder before another cold front pushes across the region. That front could bring some rain or rain changing to snow late in the week. On the north of the frontal boundary, the potential exists for an extended period of freezing rain and sleet.

There are some hints on the long range guidance that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings. Much can still change given the timeframe involved.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +27.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.065.

On January 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.536 (RMM). The January 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.614 (RMM).

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Final Smithtown stats for the weekend blizzard:

Snowfall: 16.4"

Water equivalent: 1.62"

Temperature range during the blizzard from 29 at the start down to 12 late Saturday morning.

So much for high ratios.

I think there's some local effect here that exacerbates the shredding of dendrites.  Might be proximity to LI Sound on a bit of an ENE facing hill above the Nisseqogue "fjord".  At the surface, it was rather windy but we've had plenty worse.  The biggest winds were when we spent an hour or so in subsidence between two nice bands.  Other than that, we were on the plus side of banding for much of the storm.  Trying to wrap my head around why we're just about always a local min during these windy snowstorms.

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Newark NJ had 28 days with a minimum 32 or lower...tied for 9th most since 1957...
31 in 1977
30 in 1970...
30 in 2009...
29 in 2003...
29 in 1985...
29 in 1981...
29 in 1976...
29 in 1957...
28 in 2022...2011...1996...1994...1982...1978...1971...1965...1961...

Thank you for this. It made me screenshot this to text my dad and then have a follow-up call to reminisce over the good years.


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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A cold January is concluding. The mean temperature at New York City's Central Park was 30.3°, which was 3.4° below normal. January 2022 was the coldest January since 2015 when the temperature averaged 29.9° and the coldest month since February 2015 (mean: 23.9°).

In terms of snowfall, Atlantic City's 33.2" set a new January mark. The old record was 20.3" in 1987). It was also tied with February 2003 for the 4th snowiest month on record. 5 of the 10 snowiest months have occurred since 2000, including 3 of the 4 months with 30" or more snowfall. Records go back to 1945.

Islip's 31.8" made 2022 the 2nd snowiest January on record and 3rd snowiest month of all-time. 5 of the 10 snowiest months have occurred since 2000, including all 5 months with 30" or more snowfall. Records go back to 1963.

February will likely finish somewhat warmer than normal, but it won't likely join some of the recent years with 40° or above monthly mean temperatures.

Generally colder than normal readings will continue through midweek. Afterward, it will turn briefly milder before another cold front pushes across the region. That front could bring some rain or rain changing to snow late in the week. On the north of the frontal boundary, the potential exists for an extended period of freezing rain and sleet.

There are some hints on the long range guidance that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings. Much can still change given the timeframe involved.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +27.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.065.

On January 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.536 (RMM). The January 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.614 (RMM).

Surprising that ACY has 3 months with more snow than this.  Were they all February Don and did any reach 40" of snow?

 

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13 hours ago, Shades said:

Single digits and below depicted on Long wavelength infrared LWIR this morning via GOES 16 on Long Island, those localized sweet spots where radiational effects are most pronounced. This screen cap image was from 11UTC/6am

1.31.2022.11utc.png

Can we use this to figure out what the exact temp was in a given location? Looks like there's an area NW of FOK that radiates even better than they do.

 

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13 hours ago, bluewave said:

The remarkable thing is that even our least snowy winters since 09-10 still had record snows. The 11-12 winter had the record snowiest October in NYC. 19-20 tied for the snowiest May with the trace of snow. So every year since 09-10 had a top 10 snowiest month at one of the sites in the OKX forecast zones. 

Didn't NYC once have 0.8" of snow in May? 

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14 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

The historic +13.3 departure in December 2015 marked the shift to much warmer winters. This January is only the 5th winter month out of the last 20 with below normal temperatures. The coldest departure month was this January at -3.2

 

NYC


Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

Feb 21….-1.1

Jan 21….+2.2

Dec 20…+1.7

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

Coldest since Feb 2015

 

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9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Coldest since Feb 2015

 

The first 30° month in NYC since 15-16.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Jan
Feb
Season
2021-2022 43.8 30.3 M 37.1
2020-2021 39.2 34.8 34.2 36.1
2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.1 39.2
2018-2019 40.1 32.5 36.2 36.3
2017-2018 35.0 31.7 42.0 36.2
2016-2017 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.3
2015-2016 50.8 34.5 37.7 41.0
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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Haha. Poor snowman. Last year February did him in and this year was January lol

Sooner or later when he keeps saying mild and snowless he'll end up right. 

The torch February that Snowman and I also believed would happen doesn't look to be playing out based on ensembles. 

The 2nd half of Feb would have to be really warm for it to work out.

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Sooner or later when he keeps saying mild and snowless he'll end up right. 

The torch February that Snowman and I also believed would happen doesn't look to be playing out based on ensembles. 

The 2nd half of Feb would have to be really warm for it to work out.

the problem with you guys is you keep believing in enso, when it has very little to do with our weather and you guys never learn your lesson

 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Sooner or later when he keeps saying mild and snowless he'll end up right. 

The torch February that Snowman and I also believed would happen doesn't look to be playing out based on ensembles. 

The 2nd half of Feb would have to be really warm for it to work out.

a bad clock is still right twice a day as they say

 

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