January 2022

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We don’t need a perfect Atlantic/pac to snow. Yes, for a blizzard it’s what we need. We can certainly get 3-6/4-8 type events with a decent pac/+nao. I’m not sure why he thinks the stars need to align to get snow in nyc 

Why do you keep arguing against points that were never made? You were called out in the December thread for the same issues. Nobody has mentioned specific snowfall amounts in a forecast period beyond one week. We have been discussing which pattern combinations maximize our snowfall potential. So it’s great if we finally get some cooperation from the Pacific side. But it would be nice if it occurred while we still have some Atlantic blocking for a bigger potential. So nobody has said that all the stars need to align to get snow in NYC.

[eduggs]

33 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Latest GFS seems to show some good snows toward the coast early Monday morning.

Yes. The 500mb vorticity charts would support a light to moderate snow event right along the coast. A few individual ensemble members sharpen the trof in the SE like the 6z GFS did, but the other global models mostly keep the trof positively tilted and slide a harmless front through the area. We need to see more model support to believe it.

[SnoSki14]

Gfs op really replicates the Jan MJO 7 pattern to a tee through day 10. 

More ridging out west, cold in the middle and ridge resistance off the east coast. 

Also wants to do a flash freeze Sunday night but we know how that usually plays out. 

[Eduardo]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

No problem. The long range GEFS and EPS finally agree for a change. The -PNA vortex which has been over Western Canada pulls back to near Greenland in mid-January. 
 

 

I would gladly take my chances with that look versus the one we have right now.  I like me some -EPO!

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like my call for p8 (along with others here) will workout. I do agree, that the +pna won’t last long given the current state of things. We will just need to make the most of it during a short window 

 

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The post you deleted heavily implied that….

The posts that you were referencing are still there. So I am not sure what you are talking about. You even posted yesterday that we may only have a short  window to make something work. So if this  is the case, wouldn’t you want to maximize our potential like I mentioned?

[eduggs]

The CMC is not close for the Monday coastal. And it trended in the wrong direction.

[Allsnow]

4 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Oh no, my comment wasn't directed towards you at all. Just wanted to clarify for those who might not be familiar with Matt. I very much value your takes and the conversations we often have here.

 

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The posts that you were referencing are still there. So I am not sure what you are talking about. You even posted yesterday that we may only have a short  window to make something work. So if this  is the case, wouldn’t you want to maximize our potential like I mentioned?

 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

 

The tweet from Matt that you weenied  is still there.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The tweet from Matt that you weenied  is still there.

But not the post easternLi quoted from you 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

But not the post easternLi quoted from you 

That’s not what we were talking about. 

[NEG NAO]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s not what we were talking about. 

you know its a bad winter around here when Bluewave gets into a pissing contest with Allsnow - anyways the 12Z GFS will probably be on its own with any hope of the front slowing down and allowing cold enough air to filter in before the precip shuts off to give some coastal folks a cheap thrill, After that the GFS show high and dry with seasonable cold for a few days then has a few east to west LP movers and depending where the cold enough boundary and if LP passes south of us there is some potential for light to moderate events .......

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you know its a bad winter around here when Bluewave gets into a pissing contest with Allsnow

I wouldn’t call it that.  But their have been a number of posts getting weenied over the last month for just posting model data. Now I can understand if the charts were long range GFS OP snowfall maps. But most of the posts were just 500 mb height anomaly maps discussing teleconnections. We need to take emotions out of long range model discussions. 

[KEITH L.I]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I wouldn’t call it that.  But their have been a number of posts getting weenied over the last month for just posting model data. Now I can understand if the charts were long range GFS OP snowfall maps. But most of the posts were just 500 mb height anomaly maps discussing teleconnections. We need to take emotions out of long range model discussions. 

Most people here love snow. If it's not going to snow they get upset and depressed. You love all types of weather and post here even in the Spring and Summer.You just state facts.People might not like it because of their biases, but it is what it is.

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

No problem. The long range GEFS and EPS finally agree for a change. The -PNA vortex which has been over Western Canada pulls back to near Greenland in mid-January. 
 

 

The thing is, you are not going to sustain a +PNA for any length of time, not with a well coupled moderate La Niña (Region 3.4 still at -1.1C this week) and an extremely strong -PDO/-PMM. Like you said, the models are firing IO convection mid-late January, that supports continued +AO/+NAO. Without something to force a change in the tropical convection/standing wave, i.e. major SSW, any mid month change is not going to last and Niña climo will most likely take over 

Allan’s thoughts:

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Even near normal weather in Jan will feel frigid. It's amazing how warm things have been. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Even near normal weather in Jan will feel frigid. It's amazing how warm things have been. 

Might need a coat next Monday and Tuesday 

[MJO812]

Pna looks way better by next weekend on the Euro with an interior threat 

[NEG NAO]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Pna looks way better by next weekend on the Euro with an interior threat 

This looks like it has the potential to start frozen in most of the metro - (if this system  is even real) and because of the blocking high to the north once it gets too western PA it will redevelop off the coast which might help keep precip frozen here

[White Gorilla]

52 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

Most people here love snow. If it's not going to snow they get upset and depressed. You love all types of weather and post here even in the Spring and Summer.You just state facts.People might not like it because of their biases, but it is what it is.

I am definitely a weenie, but when it doesn't snow, I just look at the bright side of that (don't have to clean up, no driving issues, no disruptions, lower risk for accidents, injuries etc).  

Chins up weenies.  Winter is like a box of chocolates.  You never know what you're going to get! 

Love, Forrest. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

We don’t need a perfect Atlantic/pac to snow. Yes, for a blizzard it’s what we need. We can certainly get 3-6/4-8 type events with a decent pac/+nao. I’m not sure why he thinks the stars need to align to get snow in nyc 

the 80s showed we can get 4" of snow in just about ANY pattern even a day after it's been in the 60s.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some flowers are already blooming. Forsythia are in bloom in many areas. Some violets and lilac are also in bloom.

Good thing is my allergies are completely gone because of that mid 20s arctic outbreak we had last week.  My nose is in winter mode now lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, thanks for posting that. It will be quite interesting to follow what happens with this. Maybe the trends moving forward could help, hopefully. The interesting thing to me is how the warmest water in the IO is in the southern hemisphere. You can see how the GEFS seems to be picking up on that there. Which seems related to persistent trades in that area near the equator. That looks to continue for a while. At least until the end of the 00z EPS. However we still have the Pacific warm pool relatively unchanged perhaps nudging east very slightly with the westerly wind anomaly that's been associated with this MJO being stuck there. I'm wondering how/if the QBO plays into this as well. Only because it seems to support increased suppression in the IO when in the easterly phase. So do we fire up a wave in the IO, but it's mostly SH focused? Or does the Pacific warm pool stay in the driver's seat? Or is there an unforeseen curveball somewhere?It's fascinating to think about this. 

I hate this term-- it's just part of SE Asia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maritime_Continent

 It's a complete misnomer, it's not a continent it's just a collection of islands.  I wondered why people on here use this term.....there are only 7 continents and nothing smaller than Australia should be considered a continent.  I even have problems with Australia being considered a continent, it's basically a giant island.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, rclab said:

Good morning SS 14. I just took this photo. Some have never stopped blooming. As always ….

Purple and Orange are my favorite colors!

 

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, nice to see a little agreement finally. We haven't had that recently. Not surprised to see a +NAO with the Alaska ridging. As it's uncommon to have ridging in both locations simultaneously. 

And the new EPS is back to a garbage looking PAC/+EPO in the long range. There is no consistency 

[EasternLI]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And the new EPS is back to a garbage looking PAC/+EPO in the long range. There is no consistency 

Not sure if I'd call that a total garbage look. However, it's completely different from its 00z and back at odds with the GEFS again. So much for agreement. I think the models are struggling with what to do with the Pacific Ridge after the jet extension hits it. I've been noticing that. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said:

Most people here love snow. If it's not going to snow they get upset and depressed. You love all types of weather and post here even in the Spring and Summer.You just state facts.People might not like it because of their biases, but it is what it is.

I completely understand the motivation. I don’t think most posters that leave weenies are being malicious. But it’s important to weigh the potential strengths and weaknesses of any long range projected patterns.  I post some of those tweets and maps in the interest of sharing weather information. The tweets that I post contain model charts that some people don’t have access to. There are some +AAM and hi res VP anomalies charts only available with commercial subscription packages. 

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Not sure if I'd call that a total garbage look. However, it's completely different from its 00z and back at odds with the GEFS again. So much for agreement. I think the models are struggling with what to do with the Pacific Ridge after the jet extension hits it. I've been noticing that. 

Yea, not total garbage but close. I think the tropical convective forcing is wreaking havoc. Just pray a vortex doesn’t set up shop in AK, that happens, it’s game over and game over for awhile

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, not total garbage but close. I think the tropical convective forcing is wreaking havoc. Just pray a vortex doesn’t set up shop in AK, that happens, it’s game over and game over for awhile

The tropical stuff is another area with question marks. There's a good amount of spread amongst the members in that regard. Still a lot of questions and doesn't inspire much confidence in anything currently. Uncertainty reigns for now. 

[EasternLI]

The mean is still going for a move east with the MJO though. So there's that. 

[eduggs]

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And the new EPS is back to a garbage looking PAC/+EPO in the long range. There is no consistency 

We know individual model runs are not accurate in the long range. Ensembles are better but still not very good beyond 7 days. We look mostly for hope, but I don't think we should expect consistency.