Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

 5 currently. This January has had more single digit low temps for my house than I can remember; lasting cold spell. Past winters I have dipped sub-zero, but quickly bounced back with the temps.

I was just thinking this last night.  Lot of single digit lows, and also a lot of highs sub 25, some of which failed to hit 20. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

The bottom absolutely fell out up here. Low of -13F. 

Not sure why folks are laughing, lol. I was being serious. :(

3zSdM67.png

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Seriously? So where you lack for snow the past several storms you make up for in bitter cold.

That's generally how it goes here. I downslope on just about any wind direction and my south-facing hill is very poor for pack retention, but I radiate extremely well as a rule.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

in my lifetime only two winters had a cold January and February after a warm December...1957-58 and 2014-15...both el nino years...1993-94 and 1967-68 had a cold Jan/Feb after a mild Dec...both neutral years...1984-85 was cold January and the first half of February but the second half of Feb was warm...

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Not sure why folks are laughing, lol. I was being serious. :(

3zSdM67.png

That's generally how it goes here. I downslope on just about any wind direction and my south-facing hill is very poor for pack retention, but I radiate extremely well as a rule.

Not gonna lie, I was surprised too when I read it but then checked out the WeatherLink map and saw just how cold it was in that neck of the woods. Impressive. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Not gonna lie, I was surprised too when I read it but then checked out the WeatherLink map and saw just how cold it was in that neck of the woods. Impressive. 

I was pretty shocked to see it when I got up. By the time I got to 84 on my way to Cold Spring for sunrise, my truck thermo was already up to +10. Pretty localized decoupling. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Generally colder than normal readings will continue through midweek. Afterward, it will turn briefly milder before another cold front pushes across the region. That front could bring some rain or rain changing to snow late in the week.

There are some hints on the long range guidance that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings. Much can still change given the timeframe involved.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +24.03 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.713.

On January 28 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.614 (RMM). The January 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.507 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.2° (3.5° below normal).

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny but cold. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 20s and lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 30°

Newark: 30°

Philadelphia: 32°

It will turn milder at midweek, but more cold air is likely to return for the weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The last day of January is averaging  25degs.(24/30) or -8.      It was suppose to start at single digits this AM according to EURO,CMC---what happened?

Storm total from Saturday storm was 8.5"(NYC) with 0.90" liquid equivalent---what happened to the predicted 15:1 ratios?

First 10 days of February are averaging  30(24/35)or -4 and little snow.

Month to date is  30.5[-3.2].      January will end at  30.3[-3.4].

Reached 27 yesterday.

Today: 28-32, wind e., p. cloudy.

24*(54%RH) here at 6am.      28* at 9am.         30* at 10am.       32 at 11am.       33* at Noon.      Reached 38* at 4:30pm.       30* at 8pm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Checking the Davis Weatherlink map, the difference in temperatures at both the immediate south and north shore and the middle of the island is about 10-15 degrees. Both shores are about 15-20 degrees while away from the water is generally 0-10 degrees. No wind and snow pack and you have some variety in temperatures.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The historic +13.3 departure in December 2015 marked the shift to much warmer winters. This January is only the 5th winter month out of the last 20 with below normal temperatures. The coldest departure month was this January at -3.2

 

NYC


Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

Feb 21….-1.1

Jan 21….+2.2

Dec 20…+1.7

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The historic +13.3 departure in December 2015 marked the shift to much warmer winters. This January is only the 5th winter month out of the last 20 with below normal temperatures. The coldest departure month was this January at -3.2

 

NYC


Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

Feb 21….-1.1

Jan 21….+2.2

Dec 20…+1.7

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

Yes winters have definitely changed. Milder and wetter and more snow thanks mostly to large snowfalls in single storms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yes winters have definitely changed. Milder and wetter and more snow thanks mostly to large snowfalls in single storms.

The remarkable thing is that even our least snowy winters since 09-10 still had record snows. The 11-12 winter had the record snowiest October in NYC. 19-20 tied for the snowiest May with the trace of snow. So every year since 09-10 had a top 10 snowiest month at one of the sites in the OKX forecast zones. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...