January 2022

[Snowlover11]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 you sir get a triple bun’er. lets get thru this one first.

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of January are averaging  26degs.(20/32)or -7.

Month to date is  31.5[-2.3].       January should end at  30.6[-3.1]

Reached 28 here yesterday.

Today: 29-31, wind s. to w., m. clear then cloudy overnight, 28 tomorrow AM.

Storm:   CMC is champ today at 15".    GFS develops too late.    The NAM is like a bad girlfriend.      The EURO has a piece of cold dead meat over a black eye.    These other models are really  threatening to go out of the picture.     It's been an insult to the intelligence and pocketbook to follow this system---but educational.   By pocketbook, I mean your tax dollars that went to the Commerce Dept. for model improvements etc.   The C.D. wiped its ass with those dollars.     AUDITS Please.  Lol!

21*(43%RH) here at 6am.      26* at 9am.       29* at Noon.      32* at 2pm.       34* at 4pm.

[EasternLI]

Welp, I have not looked at this in a while. This isn't the winter canceled look anymore. 

[the_other_guy]

7F Hastings on Hudson

Coldest night yet

Whatever happens this winter… This has been a cold January…

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will mostly sunny but cold. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 30s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include:

New York City (Central Park): 33°
Newark: 33°
Philadelphia: 35°

Clouds will increase tomorrow and snow will arrive.

Initial snowfall estimates:

Boston: 12"-18"
Bridgeport: 6"-12"
Islip: 7"-14"
New York City: 4"-8"
Newark: 4"-8"
Philadelphia: 3"-6"
Poughkeepsie: 2"-4"

 

[Cfa]

Low of 12 here. I can’t wait for this to be over.

[Volcanic Winter]

Got down to 9 here in western inland Toms River. Good bit colder than official forecasted low. 

[bluewave]

The -PNA warm up next week matches La Niña climo for February. But the quick +PNA return goes off script. This winter continues to do its own thing. A +PNA La Niña February is very rare. But so was such an extreme record -PNA December. So who knows anymore with this more extreme climate.

 

[HVSnowLover]

I have to say looking at next week is taking my excitement away from the potential weekend storm a bit, if it was going to be something historic it's still exciting but if it's run of the mill storm that will be gone by next Wed it's not that exciting.    

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The -PNA warm up next week matches La Niña climo for February. But the quick +PNA return goes off script. This winter continues to do its own thing. A +PNA La Niña February is very rare. But so was such an extreme record -PNA December. So who knows anymore with this more extreme climate.

 

What a chaotic pattern. GFS op run is nuts. Who knows what to expect at this point.

Snowman's torch Feb is going down in flames

[EasternLI]

May want to reconsider the shorts and short sleeves for all of February.

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What a chaotic pattern. GFS op run is nuts. Who knows what to expect at this point.

Snowman's torch Feb is going down in flames

Gfs has 3 snow events

Cmc also has a snow event at 240

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

8 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

May want to reconsider the shorts and short sleeves for all of February.

No couldn’t be snowman19 swore torch I don’t believe it!!!!!

[donsutherland1]

Clouds will increase tomorrow as a bomb cyclone takes shape off the southeastern U.S. That storm will move northward and bring blizzard conditions to parts of Long Island and eastern New England. During the height of the storm, winds could gust past 60 mph in that region with temperatures falling into the teens. Visibilities will decrease to 1/8 mile or less. Moderate to heavy snow will reach Newark and New York City for at least a time, but the heaviest amounts will fall east of those areas.

Snowfall estimates:
Boston: 12"-24"
Bridgeport: 6"-12"
Islip: 8"-16"
New York City: 4"-8"
Newark: 4"-8"
Philadelphia: 3"-6"
Poughkeepsie: 2"-4"

During the January 15-February 15, 1950-2021 period, 37% of Boston's 10" or greater snowstorms have occurred during an AO+/PNA+ pattern. In contrast, just 12% of New York City's and 10% of Philadelphia's 10" or greater snowstorms have occurred with such a pattern. Not surprisingly, for New York City and Newark to reach 10" or more, one will need the storm to phase somewhat farther to the west than is currently modeled.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +13.67 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.704.

On January 25 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.910 (RMM). The January 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.953 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.3° (3.4° below normal).

 

[North and West]

Clouds will increase tomorrow as a bomb cyclone takes shape off the southeastern U.S. That storm will move northward and bring blizzard conditions to parts of Long Island and eastern New England. During the height of the storm, winds could gust past 60 mph in that region with temperatures falling into the teens. Visibilities will decrease to 1/8 mile or less. Moderate to heavy snow will reach Newark and New York City for at least a time, but the heaviest amounts will fall east of those areas.
Snowfall estimates:
Boston: 12"-24"
Bridgeport: 6"-12"
Islip: 8"-16"
New York City: 4"-8"
Newark: 4"-8"
Philadelphia: 3"-6"
Poughkeepsie: 2"-4"
During the January 15-February 15, 1950-2021 period, 37% of Boston's 10" or greater snowstorms have occurred during an AO+/PNA+ pattern. In contrast, just 12% of New York City's and 10% of Philadelphia's 10" or greater snowstorms have occurred with such a pattern. Not surprisingly, for New York City and Newark to reach 10" or more, one will need the storm to phase somewhat farther to the west than is currently modeled.
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.
The SOI was +13.67 today.
The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.704.
On January 25 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.910 (RMM). The January 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.953 (RMM).
Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.3° (3.4° below normal).
 

I love your write ups. Always interesting.


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[donsutherland1]

Just now, North and West said:

I love your write ups. Always interesting.


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Thanks, North and West.

[NorthShoreWx]

On a slightly different topic, is any of the precip showing on the radar now hitting the ground?  It looks fairly impressive, but I can't find any surface confirmation from ASOS sites or mping. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy with some snow flurries and snow showers. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 33°

Newark: 33°

Philadelphia: 36°

A rapidly intensifying storm will bring heavy snow with blizzard conditions to parts of the region late tonight and tomorrow. The worst of the storm will occur on Long Island and in eastern New England where blizzard conditions are likely to occur. The 6z NAM likely illustrates the top-end case that is possible from the storm, not the most likely scenario right now. The situation remains complex and modest adjustments can still lead to large changes in snowfall amounts.

Snowfall estimates:

Boston: 16”-24”

Bridgeport: 7”-14”

Islip: 14”-20”

New York City: 6”-12”

Newark: 5”-10”

Philadelphia: 4”-8”

Poughkeepsie: 2”-4”

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.5°; 15-Year: 39.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 40.0°; 15-Year: 40.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.3°; 15-Year: 41.6°

[LoboLeader1]

Temp here has been stuck at 28* since midnite, 19 degrees warmer than yesterday AM at this time.

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of January are averaging  24degs.(18/30), or -9.

Month to date is  31.3[-2.4].       January should end at  30.4[-3.3].

Reached 34 here yesterday.

Today: 32-34, wind w. to n. to ne., cloudy, some early snow starting at 2pm.     Gusty winds after midnight tonight.

WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect.

Latest Snow Totals:   NYC

NAM 20", EURO 10", CMC 9", GFS 7"

Cobb Snow Method:   JFK,LGA.........

NAM  23", 18"   GFS 9", 7"

32*(53%RH) here at 6am.     Snow already at 8am, 32*.      33* at 10am.      34* at Noon.      36* at 1pm.      37* at 2pm.       31* at 11pm and decent snow going, ground white, 1".      30* at 11:30pm.

Not directly part of storm:

 

 

[HVSnowLover]

The storm late next week seems to be trending colder and looks like cold after it so I am not seeing this giant pattern change I've been hearing about. 

[bluewave]

The blizzard is occurring around the heaviest snowfall dates of the season since the 09-10.
 

ISP snowiest dates since 09-10

12-14…6.3

12-16…5.8

12-19…9.6

12-20…14.3

12-26….11.3

1-2……..7.8

1-3……..8.6

1-4…….16.0

1-7…….16.8

1-12…..14.0

1-21…..18.6

1-23….23.4

1-26….11.6

1-27…..27.0

1-30….5.9

2-1……11.1

2-2….5.9

2-3….11.6

2-5….12.9

2.7…..6.5

2-8….19.6

2-9….26.8

2-10….9.2

2-13….8.3

2-18….6.0

2-21…5.8

2-26…9.5

3-1…..9.6

3-2….11.5

3-5….6.4

3-7…..8.5

3-13….6.4

3-20….5.9

3-21….18.5

 

[donsutherland1]

A rapidly intensifying storm will move northward off the Atlantic coast bringing blizzard conditions to parts of Long Island and eastern New England. During the height of the storm, winds could gust past 60 mph in that region with temperatures falling into the teens. Visibilities will decrease to 1/8 mile or less. Moderate to heavy snow will reach Newark and New York City for a time, but the heaviest amounts will fall east of those areas.

Snowfall estimates:
Boston: 16"-24"
Bridgeport: 7"-14"
Islip: 14"-20"
New York City: 6"-12"
Newark: 5"-10"
Philadelphia: 4"-8"
Poughkeepsie: 2"-4"

During the January 15-February 15, 1950-2021 period, 37% of Boston's 10" or greater snowstorms have occurred during an AO+/PNA+ pattern. In contrast, just 12% of New York City's and 10% of Philadelphia's 10" or greater snowstorms have occurred with such a pattern. Not surprisingly, for New York City and Newark to reach 10" or more, one will need the storm to phase somewhat farther to the west than is currently modeled.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +23.65 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.603.

On January 26 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.847 (RMM). The January 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.910 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.2° (3.5° below normal).

 

[bkviking]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A rapidly intensifying storm will move northward off the Atlantic coast bringing blizzard conditions to parts of Long Island and eastern New England. During the height of the storm, winds could gust past 60 mph in that region with temperatures falling into the teens. Visibilities will decrease to 1/8 mile or less. Moderate to heavy snow will reach Newark and New York City for a time, but the heaviest amounts will fall east of those areas.

Snowfall estimates:
Boston: 16"-24"
Bridgeport: 7"-14"
Islip: 14"-20"
New York City: 6"-12"
Newark: 5"-10"
Philadelphia: 4"-8"
Poughkeepsie: 2"-4"

During the January 15-February 15, 1950-2021 period, 37% of Boston's 10" or greater snowstorms have occurred during an AO+/PNA+ pattern. In contrast, just 12% of New York City's and 10% of Philadelphia's 10" or greater snowstorms have occurred with such a pattern. Not surprisingly, for New York City and Newark to reach 10" or more, one will need the storm to phase somewhat farther to the west than is currently modeled.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +23.65 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.603.

On January 26 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.847 (RMM). The January 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.910 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.2° (3.5° below normal).

 

Don thank you for keeping the board aware of the statistical odds for each combo of blocking for biggest snowstorms NYC and southwards. 
Like any good long term weatherboard follower (weenie) , I understand the role each type of blocking (EPO, PNA, AO, NAO)  plays in our weather. I’m curious about the current storm bc I certainly believe the predicted lack of Mid  and upper Mid Atlantic projected severe/historic  totals makes sense without blocking. My question is , the AO in a negative phase suppresses the overall jet stream more south. Both you and Uncle W have shown the AO to be highly critical . But isn’t it the role of the NAO to block progression of storms and force them to consolidate and slow down ? Does the AO provide that - I know both indexes often correlate with one another but not always. My thought is we have the PNA to sharpen the trough and dump the cold but wouldn’t a -NAO be the best index to have ensured more of the Atlantic coastline saw historic totals? 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, bkviking said:

Don thank you for keeping the board aware of the statistical odds for each combo of blocking for biggest snowstorms NYC and southwards. 
Like any good long term weatherboard follower (weenie) , I understand the role each type of blocking (EPO, PNA, AO, NAO)  plays in our weather. I’m curious about the current storm bc I certainly believe the predicted lack of Mid  and upper Mid Atlantic projected severe/historic  totals makes sense without blocking. My question is , the AO in a negative phase suppresses the overall jet stream more south. Both you and Uncle W have shown the AO to be highly critical . But isn’t it the role of the NAO to block progression of storms and force them to consolidate and slow down ? Does the AO provide that - I know both indexes often correlate with one another but not always. My thought is we have the PNA to sharpen the trough and dump the cold but wouldn’t a -NAO be the best index to have ensured more of the Atlantic coastline saw historic totals? 

A negative AO often translates into a wavier, more meridional jet stream. This allows storms to track more northward rather than eastward during zonal situations. The upcoming storm has some upper air similarities to the January 2015 storm. 

[MJO812]

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of January are averaging  19degs.(13/25) or -14.  

Month to date is  31.2[-2.3].     January should end at  30.0[-3.7].

Reached 37 here yesterday.

Today: 21-23, down to 14 tomorrow AM., SNOW till 4pm., wind n. to nw. and gusty till tomorrow AM.

23*(99%RH) SNOW, WIND here at 6am.-----1005mb. {was 30* at midnite}     22* at 7am.    19* at 8am.      18* at 9am----1006mb.     17* at 10am.      17* at Noon---1005mb.        16* at 9pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Snow from a powerful offshore storm will gradually end from west to east today. It will be windy and unseasonably cold. High temperatures will likely reach the upper teens and lower 20s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 20°

Newark: 22°

Philadelphia: 24°

Tomorrow will be fair but cold.

[lee59]

Everyone of course is focused on the storm but how about these temperatures. Could we have the coldest temperatures of the year tonight or tomorrow night. We have a good snow pack to enhance those low temps. 14 degrees here and falling all morning

[North and West]

Everyone of course is focused on the storm but how about these temperatures. Could we have the coldest temperatures of the year tonight or tomorrow night. We have a good snow pack to enhance those low temps. 14 degrees here and falling all morning

.