January 2022

[MJO812]

Gefs mjo barely gets into 4 before going back into the cod

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Flurries here now, dusting of new snow from overnight. 

It was snowing and sticking here with the sun out this morning

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be briefly milder. Many areas will see the thermometer rise into the lower 40s. However, the warmth will be short-lived. A strong cold shot will bring much colder weather for Wednesday. Parts of the Northeast have the potential to experience their coldest temperatures of the winter. Afterward, the cold will likely begin ease, but the risk of a potentially significant storm in parts of the East could increase.

A pattern change toward persistent milder conditions could begin to evolve during the first week of February. The extended range of the EPS already shows the start of a warming trend in the closing days of January, so the timing remains somewhat uncertain. Such large-scale pattern changes have sometimes been preceded by or coincided with storms.

The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 27th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative, especially in such cities as Washington and Philadelphia. Some individual ensemble members hint at the AO's going negative for a time in the closing days of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +13.15 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.947.

On January 21 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.888 (RMM). The January 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.757 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.4° (3.3° below normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be briefly milder. Many areas will see the thermometer rise into the lower 40s. However, the warmth will be short-lived. A strong cold shot will bring much colder weather for Wednesday. Parts of the Northeast have the potential to experience their coldest temperatures of the winter. Afterward, the cold will likely begin ease, but the risk of a potentially significant storm in parts of the East could increase.

A pattern change toward persistent milder conditions could begin to evolve during the first week of February. The extended range of the EPS already shows the start of a warming trend in the closing days of January, so the timing remains somewhat uncertain. Such large-scale pattern changes have sometimes been preceded by or coincided with storms.

The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 27th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative, especially in such cities as Washington and Philadelphia. Some individual ensemble members hint at the AO's going negative for a time in the closing days of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +13.15 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.947.

On January 21 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.888 (RMM). The January 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.757 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.4° (3.3° below normal).

 

So Don, the AO could be going negative just in time for this storm starting Friday night?  What about the NAO?

 

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So Don, the AO could be going negative just in time for this storm starting Friday night?  What about the NAO?

 

The NAO stays positive.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The NAO stays positive.

we've seen that disconnect more and more lately...so the AO will be negative and the NAO will be positive on Friday and over the weekend?  Will they be weakly such or significantly departing from 0?

 

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of January are averaging  27degs.(22/32) or -6.

Month to date is  31.7[-2.1].       January should end at  30.6[-3.1].

Reached 38 at 11:59pm yesterday---most of PM was near 35.

Today: 40-42 falling late, 23 by tomorrow AM., wind w. to nw., cloudy then clearing.

Today its the EURO[968mb, BM Low] that has  picked up the fumble---as it has the 20" and 40mph winds.      The other two clumbzies have 2".      This combination changes every day.

37*(71%RH) here at 6am.       38* at 9am.       44* at 2pm.       35* at 8pm.      30* at 11pm.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be variably cloudy and milder. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 40s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include:

New York City (Central Park): 41°
Newark: 41°
Philadelphia: 44°

Tomorrow will be much colder. A significant storm could impact the region this weekend.

Normals:
New York City: 30-Year: 39.3°; 15-Year: 39.7°
Newark: 30-Year: 39.8°; 15-Year: 40.4°
Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.1°; 15-Year: 41.5°

 

[LoboLeader1]

30* here this AM

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

we've seen that disconnect more and more lately...so the AO will be negative and the NAO will be positive on Friday and over the weekend?  Will they be weakly such or significantly departing from 0?

 

It looks like the NAO will be around +0.500. During 1950-99, the January NAO was negative on 64.7% days when the AO was negative. Since 2000, that percentage has fallen to 53.0%.

[dWave]

Faint smoke in the bx to now heavy irrating smoke and smell in lower Manhattan from the Newark fire

[BxEngine]

6 minutes ago, dWave said:

Faint smoke in the bx to now heavy irrating smoke and smell in lower Manhattan from the Newark fire

Was pretty heavy smoke in the bronx earlier this morning too. Now just a haze in the southwest bronx

[dWave]

39 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Was pretty heavy smoke in the bronx earlier this morning too. Now just a haze in the southwest bronx

That make sense..I started further NE at Pelham Pkwy and it was increasingly hazy going SW to 149th/3rd Ave. Coming up the stairs near WTC white smoke in the air look like snow for a sec. You can feel and taste it down here. I think wind is more due west now instead of SW earlier helping to push it uptown more

[North and West]

It’s been cold this month. Just a nice steady chill. Wonder when it’ll flip, because that’s what it does.


.

[snowman19]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ensembles have our first 50° potential next week since the beginning of January.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 50 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Dates
Period of record: 2022-01-01 to 2022-01-24
1	22	2022-01-03 through 2022-01-24

The GEFS got even more aggressive with the -PNA in early February, dropping it to below -4 

 

[psv88]

Some flurries earlier today

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It looks like the NAO will be around +0.500. During 1950-99, the January NAO was negative on 64.7% days when the AO was negative. Since 2000, that percentage has fallen to 53.0%.

Thanks Don, +0.5 sounds pretty close to neutral, will the AO be around -0.5?  Maybe they will neutralize each other lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The ensembles have our first 50° potential next week since the beginning of January.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 50 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Dates
Period of record: 2022-01-01 to 2022-01-24
1	22	2022-01-03 through 2022-01-24

Good nice to see a warm up after our huge snowstorm.

 

[donsutherland1]

Today's warmth will be short-lived. A strong cold shot will bring much colder weather for tomorrow. Afterward, the cold will likely begin ease, but the risk of a potentially significant storm in parts of the East continues to increase. Already, Boston, Islip, and Providence appear likely to see 10" or more of snow.

A pattern change toward persistent milder conditions could begin to evolve during the first week of February.

The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 30th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative, especially in such cities as Washington and Philadelphia. Some individual ensemble members hint at the AO's going negative for a time in the closing days of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +16.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.843.

On January 22 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.095 (RMM). The January 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.891 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.4° (3.3° below normal).

 

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of January are averaging 26degs.(20/31) or -7.

Month to date is  31.8[-2.0].      January should end at  30.6[-3.1].

Reached 44 here yesterday.

Today: 27-30, wind nw. and breezy at times, few clouds, 18 by tomorrow AM.

EURO still the champ with weekend storm, but is somewhat further ne. of yesterday's runs.    18" for me, but quickly down to 12" for Newark.     The chimps are CMC 10", GFS 4".

23*(50%RH) here at 6am.    22* at 7am.      25* at Noon.      28* at 3pm.

[the_other_guy]

23 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The last 6 days of January are averaging 26degs.(20/31) or -7.

Month to date is  31.8[-2.0].      January should end at  30.6[-3.1].

Reached 44 here yesterday.

Today: 27-30, wind nw. and breezy at times, few clouds, 18 by tomorrow AM.

EURO still the champ with weekend storm, but is somewhat further ne. of yesterday's runs.    18" for me, but quickly down to 12" for Newark.     The chimps are CMC 10", GFS 4".

23*(50%RH) here at 6am.    22* at 7am.

18F at 8 am

 

If it’s going to be 50 next week doesn’t really matter how much snow you get on Saturday, right?

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will mostly sunny but cold. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 20s and lower 30s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include:

New York City (Central Park): 28°
Newark: 30°
Philadelphia: 31°

A significant storm could impact the region this weekend. At present, it seems that New York City and Newark are in line for a 4"-8" snowfall, while cities such as Boston, Islip, and Providence will likely see 10" or more. There remains considerable uncertainty, which could result in large changes in snowfall amounts.

 

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

18F at 8 am

 

If it’s going to be 50 next week doesn’t really matter how much snow you get on Saturday, right?

Depends on how much you enjoy mud and slush.

[LoboLeader1]

24* here as of 4:30PM

[donsutherland1]

The cold will begin to slowly ease tomorrow. However, the risk of a potentially significant storm in parts of the East continues to increase. Already, Boston, Islip, and Providence appear likely to see 10" or more of snow, but the probability of such an outcome has decreased. Guidance has continued to push the event farther to the east throughout the day. Snowfall amounts for New York City and Newark are unusually uncertain, as phasing situations are complex and small details can make for large changes in outcomes. There still remains some potential for a 4"-8" snowfall in both cities.

The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 30th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative, especially in such cities as Washington and Philadelphia. Prospects of a negative AO have faded. During the January 15-February 15, 1950-2021 period, 37% of Boston's 10" or greater snowstorms have occurred during an AO+/PNA+ pattern. In contrast, just 12% of New York City's and 10% of Philadelphia's 10" or greater snowstorms have occurred with such a pattern. Hence, confidence in a 10" or more snowfall in Boston and eastern New England remains solid. Synoptic details, which remain fluid, will be crucial to the outcomes from Philadelphia to New York City.

In the wake of the storm, a pattern change toward persistent milder conditions will likely begin to evolve.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +16.73 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.422.

On January 24 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.954 (RMM). The January 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.097 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.4° (3.3° below normal).

 

[MJO812]

Gfs looks good after the brief mild spell 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs looks good after the brief mild spell 

Gotta love that historic ice storm at day 10

[LoboLeader1]

8* here as of 5AM, yesterday high temp here was 25.

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Staying in the COD in phase 3 now which is good for February. Sudden twist