January 2022

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ensembles back on the warm Feb train. Meaning if we don't get any snow next 7-8 days we're shut out for a long time possibly till late Feb. 

A fluke snow event is possible 

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ensembles back on the warm Feb train. Meaning if we don't get any snow next 7-8 days we're shut out for a long time possibly till late Feb. 

The ensembles look very warm right after 2/1. The SE ridge is coming back with a vengeance next month and this time, there will be no -NAO/-AO to tame it like there was during the last RNA period we had in December. Also, the models have doubled down on a very strong SPV in February  

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The ensembles look very warm right after 2/1. The SE ridge is coming back with a vengeance next month and this time, there will be no -NAO/-AO to tame it like there was during the last RNA period we had in December. Also, the models have doubled down on a very strong SPV in February  

We know this is your wet dream 

[bluewave]

You can bet if one of these long range SSW forecasts actually verifies, then it will be just in time for March.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can bet if one of these long range SSW forecasts actually verifies, then it will be just in time for March.

It's going to happen

Warm February and them we get screwed just in time for spring.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can bet if one of these long range SSW forecasts actually verifies, then it will be just in time for March.

Yep. This is 100% the type of winter that will go ice cold mid - late March and all of April and make early spring miserable 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. This is 100% the type of winter that will go ice cold mid - late March and all of April and make early spring miserable 

It has that feel

[EasternLI]

Looking out towards the end of the ensemble runs at 00z. Strictly in the sense of tropical convection forecasts. Here's what I see on the GEFS and the EPS. Note, there are select few situations in February in La Niña where the SE ridge is not a factor. Hence the background state alone favors that as a likely feature in some form or another. That being said, the GEFS and EPS don't quite agree yet on the evolution. How things ultimately verify will probably hold more clues to how the rest of the month would evolve. Just wanted to put something quick together regarding this. Let's see what ultimately happens. 

EPS is suggesting something similar to this:

GEFS is suggesting something similar to this:

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be variably cloudy and somewhat milder today. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 35°

Newark: 36°

Philadelphia: 37°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.2°; 15-Year: 39.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 39.7°; 15-Year: 40.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.0°; 15-Year: 41.5°

A generally cold and dry week lies ahead. A strong cold shot is likely at midweek. Meanwhile, 30-year normal temperatures have now begun to increase at New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia.

[MJO812]

In CFS we trust 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

We know this is your wet dream 

March will be the nightmare

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It's going to happen

Warm February and them we get screwed just in time for spring.

Yeah I love hot weather and Snow. Best to get clobbered in Feb. Then flip to an early spring. 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. This is 100% the type of winter that will go ice cold mid - late March and all of April and make early spring miserable 

Good morning S19. No one can/should fault you for promoting/predicting seasonal consistency. As always … 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It's going to happen

Warm February and them we get screwed just in time for spring.

One of my gripes around these parts is not the snow and cold ( which we don't get a ton of ) but the persistent cloudy, cool, wet weather that seems to hang around from Nov to mid May. This makes even mild winters seem way too long; and then, we go right to hot and humid. So we really only see nice weather in Sept and Oct, but in recent years these months have been plagued with tropical systems that make things like ocean fishing impossible. Each year now I have to delay my garden because we get cold snaps right up til June, something I never remembered as a kid. I waited til very late this year and still had to deal with a late cold snap; things like eggplants and peppers don't recover from that. At least the season lasts a little longer in the fall these days.

[North and West]

One of my gripes around these parts is not the snow and cold ( which we don't get a ton of ) but the persistent cloudy, cool, wet weather that seems to hang around from Nov to mid May. This makes even mild winters seem way too long; and then, we go right to hot and humid. So we really only see nice weather in Sept and Oct, but in recent years these months have been plagued with tropical systems that make things like ocean fishing impossible. Each year now I have to delay my garden because we get cold snaps right up til June, something I never remembered as a kid. I waited til very late this year and still had to deal with a late cold snap; things like eggplants and peppers don't recover from that. At least the season lasts a little longer in the fall these days.

I’m growing peppers on my windowsill right now! A plant from last year has regenerated, so it’ll be cool to see how it goes.


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[weatherpruf]

37 minutes ago, North and West said:

I’m growing peppers on my windowsill right now! A plant from last year has regenerated, so it’ll be cool to see how it goes.


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You know when we are starting to talk about gardening the winter is shot......though friends in the south are starting their plants indoors already ( despite the wintry weather there ). I'm probably sticking to nursery plants this year. Too much work to grow from seed.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I still don’t get everyone wishing for warm weather in March. It’s just another winter month especially north and west of NYC. To wish for sustained warmth in March is like wishing for sustained cold in September.
 

Off the top of my head I forget the exact figure but something like 5 of the last 8 winters in NYC March has been the snowiest month and north and west a few of those have been epic and I’ve enjoyed every minute. 
 

Now if we could somehow flip flop the great Marchs for the lousy December’s we’ve been having snow wise I’d be all on board. 
 

Just a pet peeve. 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I still don’t get everyone wishing for warm weather in March. It’s just another winter month especially north and west of NYC. To wish for sustained warmth in March is like wishing for sustained cold in September.
 

Off the top of my head I forget the exact figure but something like 5 of the last 8 winters in NYC March has been the snowiest month and north and west a few of those have been epic and I’ve enjoyed every minute. 
 

Now if we could somehow flip flop the great Marchs for the lousy December’s we’ve been having snow wise I’d be all on board. 
 

Just a pet peeve. 

Because a bit south of you it usually is slop to nothing; the big March of 2018 delivered very little down my way, except for one storm, and a nice April surprise. But these are so fleeting and are gone in days; I remember in March 2019 having a couple small events back to back and they were gone in days. Kinda not worth the bother of cleaning up, and I've noticed many of my neighbors don't even bother to clean their snow anymore; if it's less than 6 inches, they leave it sit. It's usually gone soon. So what we have here is mainly a cold soggy March with some wet snow thrown in for extra misery. I don't expect warmth, but there was a time in the 80's when March weather was tamer and we would have a full month of fishing in by April, back when there used to be winter flounder around ( and you could keep more than 2 ). I mean it rarely snowed IIRC. But things change, and sometime in the early 90's we started seeing March snows again for awhile, then they retreated and we started to see them again in the aughts. With the climate changing, who knows how much longer we'll see March snows; research indicates that NJ in particular has seen its temps rise more than some other states in recent years.

[North and West]

I still don’t get everyone wishing for warm weather in March. It’s just another winter month especially north and west of NYC. To wish for sustained warmth in March is like wishing for sustained cold in September.
 
Off the top of my head I forget the exact figure but something like 5 of the last 8 winters in NYC March has been the snowiest month and north and west a few of those have been epic and I’ve enjoyed every minute. 
 
Now if we could somehow flip flop the great Marchs for the lousy December’s we’ve been having snow wise I’d be all on board. 
 
Just a pet peeve. 

2017 and 2018 dropped a ton of snow in Morris County, FWIW. I can’t recall the past few years. I think everything last year fell in February.


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[weatherpruf]

21 minutes ago, North and West said:

2017 and 2018 dropped a ton of snow in Morris County, FWIW. I can’t recall the past few years. I think everything last year fell in February.


.

Yup. Not so much in Middlesex County though. Dry air killed one storm, another was largely south of us. Sleet did in the 2017 event. Things have to be just right for us to jackpot here; and sometimes they are, just not in recent years.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I like the ECMWF of our potential storm (28th-30th) being east of North Carolina at 144 hours rather than the UKMET east of Montauk. When an ocean storm is going to shift towards the coast you would typically see it gain latitude more slowly. So slower is better. The trough has more time to sharpen up and go negative. If the storm shoots out too quickly you lose it. So even though this ECMWF still has it way out to sea, there's time to hook this in close enough for a big east coast snowstorm. Let's see what happens in the next 48-72 hours. 

WX/PT

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I still don’t get everyone wishing for warm weather in March. It’s just another winter month especially north and west of NYC. To wish for sustained warmth in March is like wishing for sustained cold in September.
 

Off the top of my head I forget the exact figure but something like 5 of the last 8 winters in NYC March has been the snowiest month and north and west a few of those have been epic and I’ve enjoyed every minute. 
 

Now if we could somehow flip flop the great Marchs for the lousy December’s we’ve been having snow wise I’d be all on board. 
 

Just a pet peeve. 

Because warm and sunny is a hell of a lot better than cloudy and rain.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I still don’t get everyone wishing for warm weather in March. It’s just another winter month especially north and west of NYC. To wish for sustained warmth in March is like wishing for sustained cold in September.
 

Off the top of my head I forget the exact figure but something like 5 of the last 8 winters in NYC March has been the snowiest month and north and west a few of those have been epic and I’ve enjoyed every minute. 
 

Now if we could somehow flip flop the great Marchs for the lousy December’s we’ve been having snow wise I’d be all on board. 
 

Just a pet peeve. 

Something I've noticed that was also true in the 50s....when March is your snowiest month it means the winter wasn't all that good.  My specific definition of a good snowfall season is to have at least two months with a foot or more of snowfall each.  Doesn't have to be a specific duo, it could be any two months.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

2017 and 2018 dropped a ton of snow in Morris County, FWIW. I can’t recall the past few years. I think everything last year fell in February.


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December and February.  It fits my qualifications for a good season -- we need at least two months of snow.

 

[nyrangers1022]

3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I still don’t get everyone wishing for warm weather in March. It’s just another winter month especially north and west of NYC. To wish for sustained warmth in March is like wishing for sustained cold in September.
 

Off the top of my head I forget the exact figure but something like 5 of the last 8 winters in NYC March has been the snowiest month and north and west a few of those have been epic and I’ve enjoyed every minute. 
 

Now if we could somehow flip flop the great Marchs for the lousy December’s we’ve been having snow wise I’d be all on board. 
 

Just a pet peeve. 

Because snow in March sucks.  Well snow in general sucks.  Bring on the warm and sunny days.  More fun things to do

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Because snow in March sucks.  Well snow in general sucks.  Bring on the warm and sunny days.  More fun things to do

[rclab]

10 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Because snow in March sucks.  Well snow in general sucks.  Bring on the warm and sunny days.  More fun things to do

Good afternoon nyr. If that’s the case, ref snow, and combined with my almost always snowless postage stamp …. No wonder I’m frustrated. As always ……

[sussexcountyobs]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Something I've noticed that was also true in the 50s....when March is your snowiest month it means the winter wasn't all that good.  My specific definition of a good snowfall season is to have at least two months with a foot or more of snowfall each.  Doesn't have to be a specific duo, it could be any two months.

 

 

I gauge winter on cold. How deep ice is on lake for ice fishing and hockey. It's been cold here. My 20 something year old son is out on lake playing hockey. Ice is around a foot thick. Theres a a good 4-5" of snow on the ground. Still ice in the driveway I can't get rid of. There has been at least some snow on the ground since early January. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

12 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I gauge winter on cold. How deep ice is on lake for ice fishing and hockey. It's been cold here. My 20 something year old son is out on lake playing hockey. Ice is around a foot thick. Theres a a good 4-5" of snow on the ground. Still ice in the driveway I can't get rid of. There has been at least some snow on the ground since early January. 

I have family up in Sussex.  The difference in the winter weather between there and where I am on LI is like night and day, which we all know.  In the 80s as a kid, I experienced one or two gut punches per season as they got socked up there with snow while we got rain.  We got a little revenge with some of grazers of the last decade, but the score is about 100-2 in your favor.    I've got no frozen lakes, and no snowcover - just a few measly parking lot snowpiles, and that's about it.

Ah, it all pays off in early to mid April, though, when you'll occasionally get up to 72 under bright blue skies, while I'm backdoored with 49, low clouds, fog and drizzle.

 

 

[weatherpruf]

11 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I gauge winter on cold. How deep ice is on lake for ice fishing and hockey. It's been cold here. My 20 something year old son is out on lake playing hockey. Ice is around a foot thick. Theres a a good 4-5" of snow on the ground. Still ice in the driveway I can't get rid of. There has been at least some snow on the ground since early January. 

Different world an hour southeast of you....nothing on the ground, big ice patch in front of my sump pump outlet that the town has to spread salt on lest it cover the whole roadway, and not enough ice on the water even if there were a few pathetic fish left under it ( my one local hole was bulldozed after the hurricane to stop bank erosion and cut down on flooding; no attempt was made to save any of the fish or turtles ). We had about two days of snow cover. And so we move on, waiting for the dry cold to lift and hope for an oddball snow event.