HVSnowLover Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 It looks similar to 12z up through about hour 168 and then gets hooked north. I guess this is the capture people are referencing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 At this point in time, no matter what run to run solution comes up, as it would be with any signal a week or more away, we just wait, watch, and track. Let's see how the upper air shapes up to support a solution one way or the other. I love Forky's suggestion to treat every OP run solution this far out as an ensemble member. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Thats an amazing look frankly. 968 at the benchmark. Take the solution all day long.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 This is not the first time a model or models show a 970 low off our shores a week or 10 days out. So far none have materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, lee59 said: This is not the first time a model or models show a 970 low off our shores a week or 10 days out. So far none have materialized. Agree. Also would like to see two models actually show a hit during the same cycle to feel this thing has more of a chance. I will say both of the last two storms the majority of models did not look favorable by inside 5 days I think by Monday we may have a better sense of where this is going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: At this point in time, no matter what run to run solution comes up, as it would be with any signal a week or more away, we just wait, watch, and track. Let's see how the upper air shapes up to support a solution one way or the other. I love Forky's suggestion to treat every OP run solution this far out as an ensemble member. Agree. This is the smart approach. Until we get much closer. It's still an eternity out there right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, Nibor said: We’d all mourn snowman19 but I wouldn’t call it “mass” Good evening Nibor. Just like the snowball always trying for a frozen chance in hell …. S19 will most certainly be back, to lend his warmth to the forums cold season. As always …. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 https://psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/prec_f192_us.html lets see the guidance tighten up....and not spread false hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 23 minutes ago, lee59 said: This is not the first time a model or models show a 970 low off our shores a week or 10 days out. So far none have materialized. Well now it's 6.5 days out so we should be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 hour ago, snywx said: Mass suicide in this sub forum if the 18z GFS became reality 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 29 minutes ago, rclab said: Good evening Nibor. Just like the snowball always trying for a frozen chance in hell …. S19 will most certainly be back, to lend his warmth to the forums cold season. As always …. Actual footage of our favorite warm-monger lending the warmth. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 A quiet weekend will conclude with another fair but cool day tomorrow. Next week will feature a continuation of the generally colder than normal temperatures. A strong cold shot is likely around midweek. Afterward, the cold will likely begin ease. A pattern change toward persistent milder conditions could begin to evolve during the first week of February. The extended range of the EPS already shows the start of a warming trend in the closing days of January, so the timing remains somewhat uncertain. Such large-scale pattern changes have sometimes been preceded by or coincided with storms. The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 27th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +11.26 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.549. On January 20 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.665 (RMM). The January 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.402 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.4° (3.3° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 17 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Well now it's 6.5 days out so we should be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 25 minutes ago, Torch said: Sitting on dynamite? Could always be more like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 The GEFS wasn't that impressive. If it captures it'll be well offshore. The trough is too far east and there's no Greenland blocking to hold it in place. At best it'll be a brush-by. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 this is pretty impressive 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: this is pretty impressive Pretty wild at this lead time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 But to me it's pretty indicative of how underdispersed the gefs are in general. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 EPS is much improved out west. less of a kicker, which leads to a deeper, farther W trough as a result 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 If I'm not literally blockaded into my home by a five foot snow drift from this storm, I'll be disappointed. Like, force me to excavate a tunnel to get to my car, 1888 style. ... No? Alright, fine. Give me 3-5 that hangs around at least 48 hours and I'll be good, I promise. Really. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 No 3-5s...go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: expected this Yep back and forth Boston gets crushed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep back and forth Boston gets crushed Plenty of time. Strong signal still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 We really need to separate this threat from the January discussion thread. I don't want to see quality posts buried by model analysis of one possible storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: how do we do that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 6 hours ago, Doorman said: The big take away ....wiggle room I've never seen such a large area of 12-24 in my entire life. I don't even think Jan 1996 had this large of an area of such heavy snowfall....which makes this output look suspect, expect there to be sharp cut offs with this. Very difficult to get this kind of expansive super large area of heavy snowfall without Atlantic side blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 26degs.(20/32) or -7. Month to date is 31.8[-2.1]. Should be 31.2[-3.4] by the 31st. Reached 34 here yesterday. Today: 33-36, wind w. to n., variable skies to overcast late. End of month storm gone? All models with the snow into New England and Maine now. 25*(48%RH) here at 6am. 30* at 10am. 32* at Noon. 38* at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 25 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 17 currently. Nice string of sub freezing weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Ensembles back on the warm Feb train. Meaning if we don't get any snow next 7-8 days we're shut out for a long time possibly till late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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