Rjay Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Well yeah, never claimed it would be easy. Personally, I feel like there's absolutely no situation where these things are easy. Even in a perfect setup. There's always something to worry about. It's either no blocking, or a kicker, or something else. Is it a needle threader, sure I guess. But I hate that term because I think they all are anyway. I know you didnt. My post wasn't aimed at anything you said. I disagree. When there's high latitude blocking there's many more ways to get something to work out in our favor. Without blocking most events are thread the needle due to kicker, timing issues, etc. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 euro hi res 12Z storm signal with capture one more take 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Watch us get a bowling ball right in the middle of an epic warm stretch in mid/late Feb. Bad luck in good pattern good luck in bad pattern (yeah yeah I know I know multiple waves interference spacing fast flow on and on w/r/t this month).Bingo. I’ve lived through a lot of snowless, meh winters and a lot of fun, snowy winters. A few years back, I took my son to basketball practice and it was warm and muggy and over 70° in mid-February. We got a decent snowstorm a day or two later (2018). It’s too bad the snow hasn’t worked out now when it’s cold, but everyone seems to think February is just not going to snow at all - which it may not. December was warm and all of us nerds and dweebs here were still surprised by snow on the morning before Christmas. I just wouldn’t go nuts knowing exactly what’s going to happen because we just do not know.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 24 minutes ago, Doorman said: euro hi res 12Z storm signal with capture one more take I wonder if the Euro is focusing on the wrong wave. I guess we’ll see in future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: I know you didnt. My post wasn't aimed at anything you said. I disagree. When there's high latitude blocking there's many more ways to get something to work out in our favor. Without blocking most events are thread the needle due to kicker, timing issues, etc. Yeah I hear ya. No worries at all. I can certainly get on board with easier. No doubt. High latitude blocking would be great. But there's still concerns even in that situation. Let's say there's blocking, but it's positioned poorly. Or overpowering, so suppression is a concern. I just feel like timing is the most important factor most of the time regardless. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 WPC from the long range disco Based on latest guidance comparisons, the updated forecast reflected a blend of 12Z/18Z operational models early in the period and then transitioned toward greater weight of the GEFS/ECens/CMCens due to the uncertainty of upper details over the West toward the end of the period and to yield the highest probability track for western Atlantic low pressure by Saturday. Manual depiction of this low will likely trend deeper as confidence in strength and track improves. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: If this works out we are looking at 2-4” across the area Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tatamy said: If this works out we are looking at 2-4” across the area Tuesday night. Except there's zero support for it happening. This one's a dud imo. Late month is probably going to be OTS. Just not seeing anything positive in terms of snow atm. Fast flow ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 Am not threading 18z NAM for late 25th-26th at this time. One at time...Sun/Mon whatever it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 The D7 from WPC i forgot to add 2 hours... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 17 minutes ago, Tatamy said: If this works out we are looking at 2-4” across the area Tuesday night. Saskatchewan Screamer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Here comes the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Trough is sharper thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Perfect winter evening at a local lake in Bloomingdale nj 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Mass suicide in this sub forum if the 18z GFS became reality 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Trough is sharper thus far Wow 500mb closes off and snows for 24+ hours in many areas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, snywx said: Mass suicide in this sub forum if the 18z GFS became reality What's wrong with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Capture..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, snywx said: Mass suicide in this sub forum if the 18z GFS became reality We’d all mourn snowman19 but I wouldn’t call it “mass” 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Doorman said: Capture..... Storm just crawls Onto the 0z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 GFS is a funny model but honestly has probably been the most accurate one this winter so who knows... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The big take away ....wiggle room 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Thats an amazing look frankly. 968 at the benchmark. Take the solution all day long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, Doorman said: The big take away ....wiggle room My only problem with it...it wiggled 200 miles since 12 z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: My only problem with it...it wiggled 200 miles since 12 z. understood....CL but the capture idea at 500mb is not over the top atm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: My only problem with it...it wiggled 200 miles since 12 z. Sure, but it looks a lot like some runs yesterday and last night. Which is why when this inevitably looks worse on some future runs, people shouldn't get all out of sorts that the storm is dead like they did at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 That'll do for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now