January 2022

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Not a torch but some above normal days the next 10 for sure though. The new 0Z guidance (Euro, GFS, CMC) are very ugly for snow right through day 10+. Ditto for the UKMET and ICON through the ends of their respective runs. If we get to mid-January without a big change or one imminent, it will be really troubling to say the least. A warmer than normal December with well below average snow during a La Niña is typically a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter…..

I dont know why you got a weenie for this statement. Its true. Almost like we are now dealing with emotions over weather…

[wdrag]

No thread on Jan 2-3, 8-10;  at this time. Would like to see some consistency and other modeling join hands.  

[EasternLI]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think I asked this before, how do you have a la nina background state with the oceans warming so much?  Shouldnt all the oceans be steaming hot within the next few years?

I cant wait until steam is rising from the Pacific.

Well, all of the ocean warming that we've been, and continue, to see is on the surface. You still have water at great depth that is very cold. So ocean currents acting together with the atmosphere will still provide La Niña. Studies actually suggest the possibility for more intense events as the world gets warmer. That goes for both El Niño and La Niña. However, the currents are also mixing the warming water into the depths. If we ever did get to the point where the ocean is not capable of La Niña, we'd have real serious problems.

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

so it's basically a transition period

 

For the most part, yes that's right. It's just not as easy as looking at the COD as another phase of the chart. In and of itself, it's not revealing much.

[bluewave]

The long range EPS has been showing this for a while. While the mid -January -PNA tries to relax for a time, we lose the +AO. and +NAO. So the change in the Pacific is making the Atlantic less favorable. 
 

 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The long range EPS has been showing this for a while. While the mid -January -PNA tries to relax for a time, we lose the +AO. and +NAO. So the change in the Pacific is making the Atlantic less favorable. 
 

 

I rather have a favorable PNA than a favorable  NAO

 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I rather have a favorable PNA than a favorable  NAO

 

Yup. And that Pv if positioned in Greenland can act as a block. I’m all for changing it up even if that means loosing the -nao. What’s the worst that can happen? We currently have no chance with the -nao and -pna. 

[Allsnow]

And since when do we need a perfect pac/Atlantic to snow in nyc? If that’s the case then we might need to drop the avg snowfall 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. And that Pv if positioned in Greenland can act as a block. I’m all for changing it up even if that means loosing the -nao. What’s the worst that can happen? We currently have no chance with the -nao and -pna. 

Agree

Need to shake up this pattern

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

And since when do we need a perfect pac/Atlantic to snow in nyc? If that’s the case then we might need to drop the avg snowfall 

We have seen many times a favorable pac and an unfavorable NAO. A favorable pac and a favorable nao can lead to suppression.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I rather have a favorable PNA than a favorable  NAO

 

With the way this winter has been going, we would want both the AO and PNA in our favor at the same time. Getting both would maximize any potential window of opportunity while it lasts. But if things can tilt  in our favor for a time, a relaxed Pacific could work for us.

[qg_omega]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With the way this winter has been going, we would want both the AO and PNA in our favor at the same time. Getting both would maximize any potential window of opportunity while it lasts. But if things can tilt  in our favor for a time, a relaxed Pacific could work for us.

Could but probably not, especially if the PV heads toward Europe.  We would still be flooded with PAC air

[EasternLI]

Keep in mind also, Matt is in the UK. Where the NAO is a far more important factor for winter. Otherwise, they can often be blasted with atlantic air. We can work with the Alaska ridge here. They don't like it over there. 

[EasternLI]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Could but probably not, especially if the PV heads toward Europe.  We would still be flooded with PAC air

The west is in the deep freeze and nothing is currently showing what you're saying. What on earth are you talking about? 

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

The west is in the deep freeze and nothing is currently showing what you're saying. What on earth are you talking about? 

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Ok, the PV is very clearly sitting north of Hudson Bay on that. It's a +NAO look. So you're wishcasting it to go to Europe with your post. No different than saying it could drop into the east...

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I never post those tweets for the local commentary on what it means for a specific geographic location. It’s more to illustrate that the models are showing. For our area, things work best for us when we get the Pacific to relax with help form the Atlantic at the same time. To have a great winter like 14-15 without any Atlantic help, the Pacific must be able to overpower the Atlantic. But none of the guidance is showing a Pacific nearly that favorable. Sometimes we can get snow in these  quick PNA change patterns like the overperforming SWFE on 2-22-08. But at other times, a SWFE can still kick up the SE Ridge too much with a +AO pattern. So I would like the Atlantic and Pacific to line up at the same time to maximize any potential. Plus we may not get the Pacific to remain favorable for that long with such a strong La Niña background and -PDO. But we’ll take any snow we can get in a season like this. Maybe we can out something together if we get a window of opportunity.

Oh no, my comment wasn't directed towards you at all. Just wanted to clarify for those who might not be familiar with Matt. I very much value your takes and the conversations we often have here.

[StormchaserChuck!]

^looks suspicious. I doubt the +NAO-region holds. 

[EastonSN+]

34 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

That's a better look for us than what we have now. The negative NAO RNA combo has been shredding everything.

Like I have been saying bigger cutter risk but higher chance of snow from follow up waves since the cutters can now pull cooler air east.

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

I dont know why you got a weenie for this statement. Its true. Almost like we are now dealing with emotions over weather…

I think he is getting weenies for ALWAYS pointing out warmer/less snow scenarios, not cause a specific statement is false.

If he mixed in a few cold/snow statements once in a while he would be followed.

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That's a better look for us than what we have now. The negative NAO RNA combo has been shredding everything.

+PNA/-NAO or -EPO/+NAO does best for snow. 

[EasternLI]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No problem. The long range GEFS and EPS finally agree for a change. The -PNA vortex which has been over Western Canada pulls back to near Greenland in mid-January. 
 

 

Yeah, nice to see a little agreement finally. We haven't had that recently. Not surprised to see a +NAO with the Alaska ridging. As it's uncommon to have ridging in both locations simultaneously. 

[EasternLI]

Very much dependant upon how this pattern actually shakes out. But I'm pretty sure this isn't a horrible prospect for keeping pressure on the PV. Just wanted to illustrate since this is a decent enough example. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Imo land vs water right now is why we won't see snow for a little while 

[SnoSki14]

Looks like 55-60F for the rest of the week, a brief cool down and more 50s. 

Won't be long till flowers start blooming. 

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like 55-60F for the rest of the week, a brief cool down and more 50s. 

Won't be long till flowers start blooming. 

Some flowers are already blooming. Forsythia are in bloom in many areas. Some violets and lilac are also in bloom.

[rclab]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like 55-60F for the rest of the week, a brief cool down and more 50s. 

Won't be long till flowers start blooming. 

Good morning SS 14. I just took this photo. Some have never stopped blooming. As always ….

[EasternLI]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The super long range EPS and GEFS both have the next MJO wave getting started in the IO by mid or late January. It will be interesting to see how well they can do. They have been showing it for several runs now.

 

Yeah, thanks for posting that. It will be quite interesting to follow what happens with this. Maybe the trends moving forward could help, hopefully. The interesting thing to me is how the warmest water in the IO is in the southern hemisphere. You can see how the GEFS seems to be picking up on that there. Which seems related to persistent trades in that area near the equator. That looks to continue for a while. At least until the end of the 00z EPS. However we still have the Pacific warm pool relatively unchanged perhaps nudging east very slightly with the westerly wind anomaly that's been associated with this MJO being stuck there. I'm wondering how/if the QBO plays into this as well. Only because it seems to support increased suppression in the IO when in the easterly phase. So do we fire up a wave in the IO, but it's mostly SH focused? Or does the Pacific warm pool stay in the driver's seat? Or is there an unforeseen curveball somewhere?It's fascinating to think about this. 

[EasternLI]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the current standing wave originated in the IO during late October. It slowly propagated east . But stalled once it hit the record SSTs near Australia.

 

It does look as though there's a bit more subsidence pushing east towards that area currently. So maybe we can actually move it along this time, finally, once the jet extension hits that ridge. At least get us out of this feedback loop we've been stuck in. 

[lee59]

Latest GFS seems to show some good snows toward the coast early Monday morning.

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Oh no, my comment wasn't directed towards you at all. Just wanted to clarify for those who might not be familiar with Matt. I very much value your takes and the conversations we often have here.

We don’t need a perfect Atlantic/pac to snow. Yes, for a blizzard it’s what we need. We can certainly get 3-6/4-8 type events with a decent pac/+nao. I’m not sure why he thinks the stars need to align to get snow in nyc 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some flowers are already blooming. Forsythia are in bloom in many areas. Some violets and lilac are also in bloom.

Yes they are. I live in the suburbs so the cold has been enough to kill most blooms but many urban places barely dropped below freezing.

The current warmth will only help.