snowman19 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Something is def going to happen end of January given strong and consistent signals from ensembles. Way too early to say what exactly though. That's a strong signal from 06z GEFS. The problem is whether the trough axis will end up too far east leading to another close call. I'd like to see a sharper ridge out west moving forward. There are big questions with next weekend that will limit what happens. The good is that the pattern change on the PAC side will be underway, we usually see storms at the end of established patterns. The other good is the cold that will be in place although it will be starting to relax some at that point but still cold. The issues….still fast flow, no -NAO block, no 50/50 low. The big question is the +PNA ridge….is the GFS actually correct 7 days out with its position and strength? That will greatly affect the downstream trough in the east. If the trough is positively tilted we have issues. If the GFS is wrong about the ridge in the west and the trough doesn’t go negative at the right time it all falls apart like the Euro. Is the GFS handling the northern and southern stream waves correctly? We have a lot to watch over the next week and a lot can change, people need to realize that 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 After a winter filled with nothing but fail. I'm pretty sure folks recognize that fail is a possibility. It's all everyone in here has been harping about constantly. At the same time, folks need to realize that a storm happening, is also a legit possibility. It's not only the gfs op showing that possibility FWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 You all have it covered: Not threading yet til I see GGEM-GFS-EC give us some agreement. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 4 degrees. Tied my lowest got this winter. Sub zero are not too far north based on wunderground. I wonder if I can make a run at it next cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 32 minutes ago, snowman19 said: There are big questions with next weekend that will limit what happens. The good is that the pattern change on the PAC side will be underway, we usually see storms at the end of established patterns. The other good is the cold that will be in place although it will be starting to relax some at that point but still cold. The issues….still fast flow, no -NAO block, no 50/50 low. The big question is the +PNA ridge….is the GFS actually correct 7 days out with its position and strength? That will greatly affect the downstream trough in the east. If the trough is positively tilted we have issues. If the GFS is wrong about the ridge in the west and the trough doesn’t go negative at the right time it all falls apart like the Euro. Is the GFS handling the northern and southern stream waves correctly? We have a lot to watch over the next week and a lot can change, people need to realize that Snowman even though we have different biases with cold/snow vs warm/sunny, I couldn’t agree more with your statement. This winter from my point of view has been incredibly frustrating with progressive patterns, wave spacing and what not. Is the potential there for a whopper snowstorm? Of course there is. With this being a week away it could also just as easily with a ridge break down end up as a fish storm or not even develop altogether. I refuse to get pulled in to another “potential blockbuster storm” only to get the rug get pulled out from me. If this threat still holds up and we’re 72 hours from the event then I’ll bite. One last thing, I’m very sorry for your recent loss. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 -2° At home in Dutchess — it was 15 degrees in Northern Manhattan when I left at 7 am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 -11 for a low currently -9.8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 H5 Monster for next weekend. I’ll say this, I’d rather have the op GFS in my camp than the Euro, though Euro shows a storm too at least, crazy times we’re living in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 30 day patterns have been the norm for us since the start of November. There have been regime shifts near the beginning of each new month . Our last change occurred in early January and was accompanied by the best snowstorm of the season. Let’s hope we can put together a nice snowstorm near the end of January as we move to the next winter pattern in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 -6* up here in the Berkshires this AM, 8* back home in HPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 21 minutes ago, Torch said: Forever? Or trend? Nothing lasts forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 It will be interesting to follow developments over the next seven days. Meanwhile, our low here in Sparta was -5, the coldest I've seen since moving here a year a half ago. I'm content with the current snow/ice pack for now (~3-4 inches), given how cold it's been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Three weekends in a row we've had big storm potential Last weekend- Fail- Too far inland This weekend- Fail- Wide Right Next Weekend? Will it be the charm or another dissapointment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 -2° for the morning low. Parts of Northern Orange County -10° to -15° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 40 minutes ago, bluewave said: 30 day patterns have been the norm for us since the start of November. There have been regime shifts near the beginning of each new month . Our last change occurred in early January and was accompanied by the best snowstorm of the season. Let’s hope we can put together a nice snowstorm near the end of January as we move to the next winter pattern in February. Thanks! What are your thoughts of the end of the GEFS run below? What's good - colder than normal temps above us and minimal SE ridge. What's bad - no Arctic help at all. Given shorter wavelengths, I think this is a potentially snowy look. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks! What are your thoughts of the end of the GEFS run below? What's good - colder than normal temps above us and minimal SE ridge. What's bad - no Arctic help at all. Given shorter wavelengths, I think this is a potentially snowy look. Thoughts? The next 10 days or so will probably determine whether we make it to normal snowfall on the season. Winter is a bit like a football game. We can’t keep missing opportunities and hope to make it all up near the end of the game. We would need a nice snowstorm next week plus any snow we can pick up in February and March in order to reach near to above normal snowfall with the new higher 30 year averages. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Nothing lasts forever. Except the cold January rain.. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The next 10 days or so will probably determine whether we make it to normal snowfall on the season. Winter is a bit like a football game. We can’t keep missing opportunities an hope to make it all up near the end of the game. We would need a nice snowstorm next week plus any snow we can pick up in February and March. To reach near to above normal with the new higher 30 year averages. Thanks. I guess one good thing about having a low a average annual snowfall total (30 to 35) is that we are almost always in the game for a hail Mary (Feb 2006, March 2013, March 1993, heck I think I read that 1887/1888 was a mild snowless winter with early flower growth before the biggest blizzard of all time in March). I desperately want to each average this year to continue saying "only 6 below average snowfall seasons this century"). Heard that the EPS has a more negative EPO than GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 While our hunt for snow continues, parts of SC/NC/VA had a nice event last night. So far this year has had something for everyone. Places to our south really cleaned up already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 7F in Hastings this morning. Pipe froze despite my dripping the faucet. Nice photo of the Delaware River with some ice. Reminded me of George Washington 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: 7F in Hastings this morning. Pipe froze despite my dripping the faucet. Nice photo of the Delaware River with some ice. Reminded me of George Washington Which part of the Delaware is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Lots of question marks in the long range still from what I can tell. Even some hints of another possible Pacific Jet extension way out there on some things I've seen. Beyond the Pacific retrograde early on. February is being tricky to call right now IMO one way or another. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Which part of the Delaware is that? Just north of philly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 Added RMOP: This can be helpful. Use the legend. Reds are high probability of being correct heights, blues indicate lots of uncertainty with respect to predictability. Added the 00z/22 GEFS trough for next weekend... big trough se USA but questionable ne USA heights (is it deeper, or splits east?) And the 360 hour which show confidence of the overall GEFS look at the pattern 16 day in advance. Use carefully but I don't see a big 2+ day torch yet...coming I'm sure since all of our long rangers are confident, but is it Feb week one (i dont think that is likely but may be a bad read on part--others chime the science on response to retrograde)? Week two: better chance of significant warming. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. I guess one good thing about having a low a average annual snowfall total (30 to 35) is that we are almost always in the game for a hail Mary (Feb 2006, March 2013, March 1993, heck I think I read that 1887/1888 was a mild snowless winter with early flower growth before the biggest blizzard of all time in March). I desperately want to each average this year to continue saying "only 6 below average snowfall seasons this century"). Heard that the EPS has a more negative EPO than GEFS. NYC came into February 2006 with 11.7” but had a SSW event which produced the KU. We had Dec and Feb -AO patterns that year with record warmth in January. 2013 was another SSW winter which had the KU in February. Last February was great due to the SSW and record -AO. Since we won’t have a SSW and a great -AO going forward, we need a nice snow event next weekend before we lose the +PNA block. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC came into February 2006 with 11.7” but had a SSW event which produced the KU. We had Dec and Feb -AO patterns that year with record warmth in January. 2013 was another SSW winter which had the KU in February. Last February was great due to the SSW and record -AO. Since we won’t have a SSW and a great -AO going forward, we need a nice snow event next weekend before we lose the +PNA block. Thanks. Given the 30 day pattern intervals we have seen it's looking like Feb will be warm and March the PNA will go positive again and be cold. Was there an SSWE in fall which led to the Neg NAO? I feel like the NAO being negative caused us to lose snow events which may have been similar to Jan 2012 and Feb 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. Given the 30 day pattern intervals we have seen it's looking like Feb will be warm and March the PNA will go positive again and be cold. Was there an SSWE in fall which led to the Neg NAO? I feel like the NAO being negative caused us to lose snow events which may have been similar to Jan 2012 and Feb 2018. Simon Lee has a great tweet illustrating the differences so far between this year and last. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: Simon Lee has a great tweet illustrating the differences so far between this year and last. Thanks for this! It seems that Feb will be a battle between shorter wavelengths, negative EPO and RNA ++AO NAO. Probably warmer to much warmer than average with more snow opportunities than Dec since we will not have the Negative NAO causing the meat grinder (trailing wave). Just a hunch that March with be back to a + PNA similar to now with no blocking giving the 30 day pattern window we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 I know its been a horrible winter but this place is dead with a strong storm signal at the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Gonna be OTS for our area this run but at this point all that matters is strong storm signal still there. Would be wild and also painful if NC/Virgina coast get another snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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