MJO812 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Warm in late Jan/Early Feb isn't necessarily bad but def relies on threading the needle to get anything. That's why the end of the month storm has some merritt. Pattern changing storm. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Winter cancel? Get the garden prepped early this year. (Some sarc as it’s mid-January). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: The latest EPS weeklies coming in even warmer than previous runs for February. Next week looks like our last cold week for a while. The Pacific ridge retrogrades back to the Aleutians and allows the -PNA to pump the SE Ridge during the first week of February. It pulls the Aleutian Ridge back even further during the 2nd week of February. So this allows an even warmer +EPO pattern to develop. Plus we have a strong PV and +AO +NAO on the Atlantic side. Jan 24-31 Jan 31 -Feb 7 Feb 7- Feb 14 Looks like we're back to our cool Nov, blowtorch Dec & Feb and likely cool March pattern. Jan has been a mixed bag with this year leaning cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice ensemble signal from the gefs and eps this far out . I wouldn't trust anything the eps shows lol. Especially day 8-9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 53 minutes ago, bluewave said: The latest EPS weeklies coming in even warmer than previous runs for February. Next week looks like our last cold week for a while. The Pacific ridge retrogrades back to the Aleutians and allows the -PNA to pump the SE Ridge during the first week of February. It pulls the Aleutian Ridge back even further during the 2nd week of February. So this allows an even warmer +EPO pattern to develop. Plus we have a strong PV and +AO +NAO on the Atlantic side. Jan 24-31 Jan 31 -Feb 7 Feb 7- Feb 14 I’m fine with it warming up if it won’t snow regardless. I hate cold and dry. And now we get to watch the VA Tidewater maybe be the next area down south to overtake us in annual snow. Yay! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's why the end of the month storm has some merritt. Pattern changing storm. Theres def some merit to this. Euro op has been performing terribly this year. It really would be amazing if we got through this period with nothing. Talk about incredibly bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 28 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Winter ends in 10 days, we are in the epic pattern right now No it doesn't. It was also supposed to be over in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 7 hours ago, EasternLI said: If nothing happens before February. I'm with you. I've aways said something needed to come together in January. Watch, now we'll see a SSW in mid February and well have lousy weather until June. I'd prefer we fire up a snowman19 ridge and rip the bandaid off. I want it to hit 100 every day in July because he only likes boring nonextreme weather and hates heat as much as he hates snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 hours ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if we can end the pattern with a nice snowstorm like we had at the beginning of it on January 7th. Sometimes we get bookend snows at the beginning and end of new patterns. Since the start of November, it has been a steady 30 day pattern followed by a shift at the beginning of each new month. Good so that means a snowy March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Although I only have 12.5 inches on the season which is disappointingly below average for this point in time, I've had a solid snow cover since January 7th which weighs as much into my enjoying winter as the actual snowfall. One blockbuster snowstorm, ala Jan2016, in the middle of a horrendous winter and that melted in most places that it hit within a week is not my idea of winter. To each his own. 30 inches though dude and memories for a life time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea thats the difference when you live somewhere that doesn't get much rain in January lol. The coast can't hold onto a snowpack without a big storm because of how frequently it rains. also lower elevation and higher humidity and urbanization all means snowpack goes bye bye quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Cold and dry for the next week. Yay! i rather have cold and dry then cold and wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 As much as I would not mind a torch February at this point, I can't put any faith at all in an extended mjo forecast. From any model. The euro weeklies are nothing more than an extended 00z eps run. Well looking through the individual eps members mjo forecast from today's 12z, which is newer, they are quite literally all over the map. That's a huge grain of salt for me. Huge. Even just two weeks out. Maybe it's right, but I can't put any trust in that when regular 15 day ensembles struggle mightily on the regular. For me, I have to take it two weeks at a time, max. Right now, probably even less seeing very little agreement between individual members currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: i rather have cold and dry then cold and wet... warm and dry is better than either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 To me, the upcoming jet retraction in conjunction with the upcoming tropical convective layout supports a western trough as we're beginning February. Beyond that, is a huge question mark from what I see right now. No confidence until future runs can provide more clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: To me, the upcoming jet retraction in conjunction with the upcoming tropical convective layout supports a western trough as we're beginning February. Beyond that, is a huge question mark from what I see right now. No confidence until future runs can provide more clarity. Yeah I have a hard time believing it will last longer than the December drop did. March is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, EasternLI said: As much as I would not mind a torch February at this point, I can't put any faith at all in an extended mjo forecast. From any model. The euro weeklies are nothing more than an extended 00z eps run. Well looking through the individual eps members mjo forecast from today's 12z, which is newer, they are quite literally all over the map. That's a huge grain of salt for me. Huge. Even just two weeks out. Maybe it's right, but I can't put any trust in that when regular 15 day ensembles struggle mightily on the regular. For me, I have to take it two weeks at a time, max. Right now, probably even less seeing very little agreement between individual members currently. To be honest looking at the Indian Ocean, I would say that an MJO of phase 2 or 3 is very possible. In turn, this would mute the Feb torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: also lower elevation and higher humidity and urbanization all means snowpack goes bye bye quickly Yes urbanization is a big factor too which is why North Shore of LI seems to hold onto snow longer than the rest of the metro area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah I have a hard time believing it will last longer than the December drop did. March is still on the table. I'm not sold on all of February totally torched yet. Even though I would not mind some warmer weather at this point at all. It's questionable. 29 minutes ago, USCG RS said: To be honest looking at the Indian Ocean, I would say that an MJO of phase 2 or 3 is very possible. In turn, this would mute the Feb torch. I agree. It's going to need to be monitored. The IO has warmed back up over the last several weeks. It's not as cut and dry as it might seem from where I'm sitting. Looking at it, I'm not really sure how much early February even torches. It's a phase 6 look to me to start. Which offers a western trough look, but also troughing in eastern Canada in La Niña February's. That would be a compression situation with any se ridging. That would not allow the ridging to be as effective as it otherwise could be in our area. There's some question marks here. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The latest EPS weeklies coming in even warmer than previous runs for February. Next week looks like our last cold week for a while. The Pacific ridge retrogrades back to the Aleutians and allows the -PNA to pump the SE Ridge during the first week of February. It pulls the Aleutian Ridge back even further during the 2nd week of February. So this allows an even warmer +EPO pattern to develop. Plus we have a strong PV and +AO +NAO on the Atlantic side. Jan 24-31 Jan 31 -Feb 7 Feb 7- Feb 14 Yea, the wheels are already in motion right now to initiate another RNA regime by the beginning of February. The -PNA should start the last few days of this month. Unlike December, where we had -NAO/-AO blocking which tamed the SE ridge and a strong SPV that never coupled, it’s going to couple this time, get stronger and lead to ++AO/++NAO which allows the SE ridge to really pump. The weeklies also show a +EPO developing, it probably gets well above normal here for awhile: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah a warm 2 weeks for sure. Then hopefully the shorter wavelengths kick in. Shorter wavelengths aren’t going to matter with what the weeklies show if they are correct. If what they are showing actually happens, it will be a torch, there’s no way to sugar coat it, +EPO, -PNA, +NAO, +AO and a raging strong SPV, SE ridge on roids, is a torch here no matter what the wavelengths are in February 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Shorter wavelengths aren’t going to matter with what the weeklies show if they are correct. If what they are showing actually happens, it will be a torch, there’s no way to sugar coat it, +EPO, -PNA, +NAO, +AO and a raging strong SPV, SE ridge on roids, is a torch here no matter what the wavelengths are in February If it's 60+ (my definition of a torch, anything less is merely mild), it's great because I'm going to shut my heating off. I'm sure most would be ecstatic to save on heating costs. And if we get one big snowstorm to end January I'm sure most would be happy and have no further use of any cold weather. We must look at all the positives of warm weather after such a bitterly cold month. Just need that one big snowstorm and winter would've served its purpose and can go away. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: We have had trouble sustaining these Pacific blocking patterns since the 13-14 and 14-15 winters. So it’s no surprise all the guidance is changing the pattern near the end of the month. Hopefully, we can get a nice snow event before we lose the Pacific blocking. Just three years ago at this time we had a similar shift from Arctic cold in late Janaury to 60s in early February. That one was only able to deliver the whiteout snow squall at the end of January before the PNA reversed. Since you said that these changes occur in 30 day increments are you thinking we'll have a colder and possibly snowy March after a mild February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Currently 28* here under a clear sky. Reached a high of 43* shortly before 1 this AM, then temps slowy began to drop off. About an inch snow fell earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 CFSv2 not getting enough attention with its February forecast? WARMUP? What, Me Worry? but yes, the end of month blizzard is already OTS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 18 hours ago, LibertyBell said: actually this pattern was rather common in the 80s. The pattern of results may have been common. But the weather patterns are unique. We've had a wound up southern stream blasting into a wall of confluence, another wound up northern stream wave phasing with a follow-up wave and slamming Toronto, and then a few positively to neutrally tilted, progressive northern stream trofs that fringed us or missed south. All of those could have been hits or misses depending on subtleties in the features. Our lack of snow has nothing to do with any pattern similarities to the 1980s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, CIK62 said: CFSv2 not getting enough attention with its February forecast? WARMUP? What, Me Worry? but yes, the end of month blizzard is already OTS maybe the OP... but that GEFS spread MJO812 just posted is pretty wild with lots of strong solutions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 So we're back to posing 200+ hour GEFS and talking about March. Point of lowest morale of the winter so far... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 The same song is played every year.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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