Jt17 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 43 minutes ago, MJO812 said: LoL at the big snowstorm at the end of the month on the gfs Lol one storm like that would easily save the entire winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Lol one storm like that would easily save the entire winter yep, just like January 2016 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Gefs has a signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 51 minutes ago, MJO812 said: LoL at the big snowstorm at the end of the month on the gfs 958 mb low. Good Lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, wdrag said: MOS guidance is warm...16F so I don't spend a lot of timing deciding what it will be. But to have MOS off by more than 6F on the cold side of a CAA situation seems a little much so that is why I decline to be confidence of below 10. You need a snow cover in CP... unsure if more than 1/2"??? There's little if anything at CP (maybe a trace fell this morning) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs has a signal Why don't you provide something else to prove it........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs has a signal Models have the tendency to sniff out the big ones. I believe it was the Euro that had the superstorm of March ‘93 ten days out. It never wavered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Why don't you provide something else to prove it........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 958 mb low. Good Lord.Going on absolutely nothing other than recent past experience, this will not pan out.Of course, I hope I’m wrong, but it just has that feel of meh, it’s not gonna happen.That’s my peer-reviewed scientific analysis.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, North and West said: Going on absolutely nothing other than recent past experience, this will not pan out. Of course, I hope I’m wrong, but it just has that feel of meh, it’s not gonna happen. That’s my peer-reviewed scientific analysis. . Your probably right. I can dream can’t I? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: Was a very sulphur-poor eruption, likely a lot of sulphur leached out into the ocean. It was an exceptional blast however, quite likely the single biggest explosion on earth since Krakatau. Novarupta and Santa Maria, while both larger than Tonga in terms of volume, were at a lower minute by minute intensity. I've seen calculations that its peak energy release was even ahead of Pinatubo's climactic peak on June 15th (though again, lesser in volume).Insane. Thanks for your reply... helpful. Walt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, North and West said: Going on absolutely nothing other than recent past experience, this will not pan out. Of course, I hope I’m wrong, but it just has that feel of meh, it’s not gonna happen. That’s my peer-reviewed scientific analysis. . Reverse psychology; nice! Might just work lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 THE BIG KISSOFF ----- BEFORE THE BIG WARMUP ----- in February??? 20" and 35mph winds+any gusts. Never gonna hold up till the 29th/30th. Gone Already? We hardly knew you. Above derived from 12Z but already useless.................. 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Who wants warm temps few more months than we are supposed to get ? Like 95% of the population does. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 CMC has the day 9 threat albeit offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: This happens alot I may be mistaken but I think the PNA was falling or already negative for Feb 2003. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Looks like the next threat would be around Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. At least theres a lot of different waves and some cold air around so chances are something may work out even if it's not a KU event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: 12z Euro is how it’s been all winter trash I cant tell if you mean the model or the winter lol. The model sure hasn't been too great this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I cant tell if you mean the model or the winter lol. The model sure hasn't been too great this winter. I think he means the model run, though if he's referring to the storm 9/10 days away, it doesn't dig moisture from the gulf like the gfs, but it does have a low off the coast at the same time as the gfs and Canadian. Maybe in 3-4 days we can start the emotional roller coaster all over again in a new storm thread 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: I think he means the model run, though if he's referring to the storm 9/10 days away, it doesn't dig moisture from the gulf like the gfs, but it does have a low off the coast at the same time as the gfs and Canadian. Maybe in 3-4 days we can start the emotional roller coaster all over again in a new storm thread Yea I'm sure that storm will come back and forth as usual on the long range models but atm I'm more interested in the mid week potential even though its more likely a minor event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 38 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: 12z Euro is how it’s been all winter trash But I wouldn't be surprised if this is close to what verifies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: But I wouldn't be surprised if this is close to what verifies The only places this winter that are really doing well snow wise are parts of the mid-Atlantic/South and out west where the Pacific vomited all over in Dec. At least we’re not suffering alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The only places this winter that are really doing well snow wise are parts of the mid-Atlantic/South and out west where the Pacific vomited all over in Dec. At least we’re not suffering alone. It's climo though, places to our NW are not having a great winter but still have some snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Cold and dry for the next week. Yay! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I don't care what the EURO shows anymore. Giving it the cold shoulder for being a complete disaster for the entire year. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 40 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The only places this winter that are really doing well snow wise are parts of the mid-Atlantic/South and out west where the Pacific vomited all over in Dec. At least we’re not suffering alone. Although I only have 12.5 inches on the season which is disappointingly below average for this point in time, I've had a solid snow cover since January 7th which weighs as much into my enjoying winter as the actual snowfall. One blockbuster snowstorm, ala Jan2016, in the middle of a horrendous winter and that melted in most places that it hit within a week is not my idea of winter. To each his own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Although I only have 12.5 inches on the season which is disappointingly below average for this point in time, I've had a solid snow cover since January 7th which weighs as much into my enjoying winter as the actual snowfall. One blockbuster snowstorm, ala Jan2016, in the middle of a horrendous winter and that melted in most places that it hit within a week is not my idea of winter. To each his own. Yea thats the difference when you live somewhere that doesn't get much rain in January lol. The coast can't hold onto a snowpack without a big storm because of how frequently it rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Nice ensemble signal from the gefs and eps this far out . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The latest EPS weeklies coming in even warmer than previous runs for February. Next week looks like our last cold week for a while. The Pacific ridge retrogrades back to the Aleutians and allows the -PNA to pump the SE Ridge during the first week of February. It pulls the Aleutian Ridge back even further during the 2nd week of February. So this allows an even warmer +EPO pattern to develop. Plus we have a strong PV and +AO +NAO on the Atlantic side. Jan 24-31 Jan 31 -Feb 7 Feb 7- Feb 14 Warm in late Jan/Early Feb isn't necessarily bad but def relies on threading the needle to get anything. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The latest EPS weeklies coming in even warmer than previous runs for February. Next week looks like our last cold week for a while. The Pacific ridge retrogrades back to the Aleutians and allows the -PNA to pump the SE Ridge during the first week of February. It pulls the Aleutian Ridge back even further during the 2nd week of February. So this allows an even warmer +EPO pattern to develop. Plus we have a strong PV and +AO +NAO on the Atlantic side. Jan 24-31 Jan 31 -Feb 7 Feb 7- Feb 14 Yeah a warm 2 weeks for sure. Then hopefully the shorter wavelengths kick in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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