Physicsteve Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Vorts all over We will get something There’s a vort that breaks off from the northern stream over the weekend that closes off and spins over Baja Peninsula and AZ for a day and a half or so before finally moving East into the flow with everything else. I think how that split goes and actual duration of that vacation in the SW determines how next week goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 We got the colder Pacific Ridge pattern this month. But record Pacific Jet from December never fully relaxed. So it served to suppress the STJ too far to our south. Hopefully, we can get a larger snow event before the retrogression of the ridge back to the Aleutians and milder Western Trough returns in early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(24/33) or -4. Month to date is 32.9[-1.1]. Should be 31.6[-2.0] by the 28th. Reached 49 here yesterday. Today: Falling T's to 19 by tomorrow AM. Precip. till 2pm when T may have reached 32---so little white. Next 10 days BN and dry? Jan. 30 with 15"+ is next, and only, date to follow? 41*(85%RH5) here at 6am,Rain{was 46* at midnite} 40* at 7am, snow line back by Morristown now. 39* at 8am, snow approaching Newark area. 36* at 9am and snow into most of SI. Approaching Jersey City vicinity. 35* and wet snow here at 10am. 33* and wet snow, not sticking anywhere at 11am, moderate snow over and maybe 3hrs. of nothing to go. Just about over at Noon, still 33*, no snow coverage. Went back up to 35 and finally reached 32 at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Yep, need some sort of a phase with the northern stream to get the STJ to do anything for us up here. Between now and the end of the month there's still a chance of that. Although nothing looks overly exciting at the moment. I suspect the best chance is when that cutoff in the SW is ejected. Or as the ridge begins to retrograde near the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 41 minutes ago, Physicsteve said: There’s a vort that breaks off from the northern stream over the weekend that closes off and spins over Baja Peninsula and AZ for a day and a half or so before finally moving East into the flow with everything else. I think how that split goes and actual duration of that vacation in the SW determines how next week goes. We haven't had a good ol' 4 Corners Low come bowling across the country in too long. It sure would be nice to see one again. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Physicsteve Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, gravitylover said: We haven't had a good ol' 4 Corners Low come bowling across the country in too long. It sure would be nice to see one again. Encouragingly it’s been a persistent feature for a few runs on a few models. We’ll see! ETA: To be clear, it doesn’t stay closed as it moves East. Just wonder how when and where that energy eventually interacts will shape things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Morning thoughts… Rain will end as a period of snow or flurries. 1” of snow is likely in Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City with local amounts as high as 3”. The temperature will fall throughout the day. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 39° Newark: 37° Philadelphia: 40° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.1°; 15-Year: 39.7° Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.5° Tomorrow through the weekend will be cold and dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I’m just so over this winter. Hopefully we torch in February and March so it’s over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I’m just so over this winter. Hopefully we torch in February and March so it’s over. We will likely torch first 2 weeks then shorter wavelengths 2nd half of Feb and March kick in. WRT reaching average Annual snowfall it will come down to whether or not we score a good event before EOM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I actually love and prefer the cold. Not exactly a common sentiment I’m sure. Wife and I do most of our travel in the winter, lately to Iceland and hopefully Canada soon for cold weather hiking. Long term my wife and I may move north to places that are consistently colder and snowier. I’m very over living at the boring, warm coastal plain / continental shelf. While we started January rather well, this has just been a brutally disappointing ten day period, especially missing out on that massive inland storm. Here’s to hoping we score one more nice event on the pattern flip, at least. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 32 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I’m just so over this winter. Hopefully we torch in February and March so it’s over. If nothing happens before February. I'm with you. I've aways said something needed to come together in January. Watch, now we'll see a SSW in mid February and well have lousy weather until June. I'd prefer we fire up a snowman19 ridge and rip the bandaid off. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 Is anyone discussing the possible coldest temp of the season so far in NYC Saturday morning (maybe 8 or 9 above) and wind chills 5-10 below there, 15 below out here in Wantage My guess the only things rueing against, is if NYC doesn't gain an inch of snow today and the southern system makes a sudden move north (not likely) I also see the modeling trending warmer early Feb, but time for delays?? Feb 5-7 seems to be big time frame for BOS snows... 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 46 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I’m just so over this winter. Hopefully we torch in February and March so it’s over. Torch is disgusting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, EasternLI said: If nothing happens before February. I'm with you. I've aways said something needed to come together in January. Watch, now we'll see a SSW in mid February and well have lousy weather until June. I'd prefer we fire up a snowman19 ridge and rip the bandaid off. Yeah, I’m all for a snowman19 ridge. Bring us the warmth buddy 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, I’m all for a snowman19 ridge. Bring us the warmth buddy Who wants warm temps few more months than we are supposed to get ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who wants warm temps few more months than we are supposed to get ? If it's not gonna snow then I'd love an extended spring. Nothing more depressing than cold/dry, it's completely useless. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Given the surge of oil prices in the past couple of weeks, I don't mind seeing a mild winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Given the surge of oil prices in the past couple of weeks, I don't mind seeing a mild winter. No doubt! We're going to need another oil delivery in 2 weeks, I'm not looking forward to paying for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 Tonga vs Pinatubo: Climate cooling response unlikely per this article. https://www.space.com/tonga-volcano-eruption-wont-cool-climate 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Who wants warm temps few more months than we are supposed to get ? If no snow then let it torch 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Is anyone discussing the possible coldest temp of the season so far in NYC Saturday morning (maybe 8 or 9 above) and wind chills 5-10 below there, 15 below out here in Wantage My guess the only things rueing against, is if NYC doesn't gain an inch of snow today and the southern system makes a sudden move north (not likely) I also see the modeling trending warmer early Feb, but time for delays?? Feb 5-7 seems to be big time frame for BOS snows... I thought last Sat was cold, but this looks a few degrees colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 MOS guidance is warm...16F so I don't spend a lot of timing deciding what it will be. But to have MOS off by more than 6F on the cold side of a CAA situation seems a little much so that is why I decline to be confidence of below 10. You need a snow cover in CP... unsure if more than 1/2"??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: I’m just so over this winter. Hopefully we torch in February and March so it’s over. Honestly, this has the feel of a year where, after we're all lulled into Spring mode in February, shortening wavelengths yield a freak March snowstorm before Spring actually begins. I agree that it's been a frustrating winter for us snow lovers though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Tonga vs Pinatubo: Climate cooling response unlikely per this article. https://www.space.com/tonga-volcano-eruption-wont-cool-climate Was a very sulphur-poor eruption, likely a lot of sulphur leached out into the ocean. It was an exceptional blast however, quite likely the single biggest explosion on earth since Krakatau. Novarupta and Santa Maria, while both larger than Tonga in terms of volume, were at a lower minute by minute intensity. I've seen calculations that its peak energy release was even ahead of Pinatubo's climactic peak on June 15th (though again, lesser in volume).Insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: If no snow then let it torch Agreed. Cold, grey and dry is depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 LoL at the big snowstorm at the end of the month on the gfs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: LoL at the big snowstorm at the end of the month on the gfs It will be interesting to see if we can end the pattern with a nice snowstorm like we had at the beginning of it on January 7th. Sometimes we get bookend snows at the beginning and end of new patterns. Since the start of November, it has been a steady 30 day pattern followed by a shift at the beginning of each new month. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if we can end the pattern with a nice snowstorm like we had at the beginning of it on January 7th. Sometimes we get bookend snows at the beginning and end of new patterns. Since the start of November, it has been a steady 30 day pattern followed by a shift at the beginning of each new month. PNA going negative Archambault event ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: PNA going negative Archambault event ? You made me read up on this. Very interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, USCG RS said: You made me read up on this. Very interesting. This happens alot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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