Cheticus Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Hey guys, I am having an addition done in the Spring. Would like to get foundation poured early to get ahead of the rush. Am told that need a steady temperature of 27+. Based on the extreme cold at the end of this month, I assume February will torch at some point? Any ideas which week I should tell my contractor to be ready? TY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Winter then baseball baseball 100% for me... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 35 minutes ago, Cheticus said: Hey guys, I am having an addition done in the Spring. Would like to get foundation poured early to get ahead of the rush. Am told that need a steady temperature of 27+. Based on the extreme cold at the end of this month, I assume February will torch at some point? Any ideas which week I should tell my contractor to be ready? TY Honestly, don't pour concrete in February. You won't have a period of sustained 27+ temperatures and pouring when cold substantially increases the risk of cracking. It is 100% not worth it for an investment of this size. Even if February torches to daytime temps of 45+, nights can still be cold to frigid. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 @AllsnowThe RNA is real…it’s actually moving forward in time on the models instead of staying stuck in the long range….looks like we are in a healthy -PNA by the last couple of days of this month: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, snowman19 said: @AllsnowThe RNA is real…it’s actually moving forward in time on the models instead of staying stuck in the long range….looks like we are in a healthy -PNA by the last couple of days of this month: @AllsnowAlso looks like we go into a strong +AO/+NAO pattern at the same time as the RNA…..the SPV will be at record strong levels and it couples with the troposphere….something that hasn’t happened yet this winter. It may get very mild for awhile: 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The historic +13.3 departure in December 2015 marked the shift to much warmer winters. This January is only the 5th winter month out of the last 20 with below normal temperatures. The coldest departure month was December 2017 at only -2.5. NYC Jan 22….-1.4 Dec 21….+4.7 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 December of '15 was a complete torch. I remember it being something in the neighborhood of 65 on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Perhaps our best shot at something meaningful before pattern turns less favorable in the 25-27th timeframe. PNA ridge at its strongest with a combo Miller A/B setup perhaps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Perhaps our best shot at something meaningful before pattern turns less favorable in the 25-27th timeframe. PNA ridge at its strongest with a combo Miller A/B setup perhaps. I was just gonna say the ensembles are liking this period. 25-27th something to watch I guess. Hard to get invested in anything more than 3 days out it seems this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 51 minutes ago, snowman19 said: @AllsnowAlso looks like we go into a strong +AO/+NAO pattern at the same time as the RNA…..the SPV will be at record strong levels and it couples with the troposphere….something that hasn’t happened yet this winter. It may get very mild for awhile: This isn't a death sentence 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This isn't a death sentence AND it may not last through March AND shorter wavelengths 2nd half of February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This isn't a death sentence Exactly. It can still snow and it probably will, just not as probabilistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I wish spring here warmed up as quickly as DC. March has largely sucked around here for the last decade. March 2012 should be the standard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 An advancing cold front will bring rain changing to snow overnight into midday tomorrow. A general 1"-3" snowfall is likely in Philadelphia, Newark, New York City and nearby areas. Lighter amounts are likely north and west of those cities. Much colder air will follow for the weekend. The weekend will be mainly dry as a storm moves offshore well to the south and east of the region. Generally colder than normal conditions will persist through midweek next week. A pattern change toward persistent milder conditions could begin to evolve during the first week of February. At present, the CFSv2 is somewhat faster than the EPS weeklies in bringing about that transition. The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 27th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +5.75 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.161. On January 17 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.430 (RMM). The January 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.658 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.4° (3.3° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 44* here currently after reaching a high 48 earlier today. Temps are expected to be above freezing over nite as per NWS, be lucky to see an inch at best tomorrow AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Crazy how the GFS has less than a quarter inch of QPF for the next 10 days in parts of NNJ and SENY. Fortunately the CMC and Euro are wetter, but I know which I think will be right. Gotta watch the entire period from the 25th through the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 10 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: Rank the following: Winter, snow, cold, warm, baseball, and beach. I know you are big into baseball so I'm curious to see your ranking of these! Cold, baseball, winter, snow, beach, warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, A Moonlit Sky said: Cold, baseball, winter, snow, beach, warm. Hockey, golf, summer, heat, spring, beach, dentist, snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, A Moonlit Sky said: Cold, baseball, winter, snow, beach, warm. Snow, warm, baseball, winter, cold, beach.... Now I feel like I need a shrink... or just an 18-24 inch bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Can we ban the use of the word "pattern" in this subforum?! There are climate patterns. But they don't mean squat for local weather. Storm events don't follow repetitive patterns; each is unique. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Another really dry run on the GFS after tomorrow, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: Another really dry run on the GFS after tomorrow, wow. Vorts all over We will get something 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Vorts all over We will get something The best I see is clippers or some kind of redeveloper otherwise the flow is too fast for anything else. Day 5 on GFS exemplifies this perfectly. You got a good southern vortex but the northern stream is zipping along so nothing happens and vortex shears out as it heads east. This kind of pattern would've been better late winter when wavelengths change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 hours ago, eduggs said: Can we ban the use of the word "pattern" in this subforum?! There are climate patterns. But they don't mean squat for local weather. Storm events don't follow repetitive patterns; each is unique. actually this pattern was rather common in the 80s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 13 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: Honestly, don't pour concrete in February. You won't have a period of sustained 27+ temperatures and pouring when cold substantially increases the risk of cracking. It is 100% not worth it for an investment of this size. Even if February torches to daytime temps of 45+, nights can still be cold to frigid. 45 isn't torch for February....60 would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 15 hours ago, MJO812 said: To me winter is here till April we've gotten several snowstorms in the first 10 days of April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Perhaps our best shot at something meaningful before pattern turns less favorable in the 25-27th timeframe. PNA ridge at its strongest with a combo Miller A/B setup perhaps. The pattern we are currently in comes to an end by 1/28….if we haven’t gotten anything by then it will most likely have to wait awhile. It may get very mild/torch for a time with this upcoming RNA bout as it looks like it will be accompanied by +NAO/+AO, unlike the last -PNA period in December which had -NAO blocking, this time around, the SE ridge probably goes on roids as does the SPV….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: The pattern we are currently in comes to an end by 1/28….if we haven’t gotten anything by then it will most likely have to wait awhile. It may get very mild/torch for a time with this upcoming RNA bout as it looks like it will be accompanied by +NAO/+AO, unlike the last -PNA period in December which had -NAO blocking, this time around, the SE ridge probably goes on roids as does the SPV….. Our warm patterns always over preform in our new climate. We could see some very warm days in early feb. The worst part is that’s our prime snow climo. The last thing we want is to toss feb and have blocking re-emerge for March. That seems to happen about every other year now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 actually this pattern was rather common in the 80s.Yep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Yeah cold and dry for next week yeaaaaaa. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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