January 2022

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(23/34) or -4.

Month to date is  32.6[-1.4].      Should be  31.5[-2.2] by the 27th.

Reached 38 here yesterday.

Today:  45-47, wind s. and breezy, then w., m. cloudy, breaks.

NBM has all its 10 day precip. on Thurs., so a boring, but BN, 10 day stint coming up.

33*(60%RH) here at 6am{was 32 at 3am}.     34* at 7am.       37* at 9am.      41* at 11am.       44* at 1pm.      Reached 49* at 3:30pm.

[bluewave]

While it has gotten much colder than December, we still have the overpowering Pacific Jet. So we have had several events get suppressed. The cutter was our most intense storm but the lack of -AO and -NAO hurt us. We generally need the northern branch to back off when there are STJ disturbances. So places to our south like ACY already have reached their normal snowfall for the entire season. At least we are close to average for January so far which is a big win coming off December. 
 

[LoboLeader1]

24 here this AM. After tomorrow's minor event and now the train wreck regarding the possibility of this weekend's storm, question is will we see any snow this month?

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While it has gotten much colder than December, we still have the overpowering Pacific Jet. So we have had several events get suppressed. The cutter was our most intense storm but the lack of -AO and -NAO hurt us. We generally need the northern branch to back off when there are STJ disturbances. So places to our south like ACY already have reached their normal snowfall for the entire season. At least we are close to average for January so far which is a big win coming off December. 
 

We'll have a chance for one big snowstorm, and it will come right before the pattern changes to warmer weather.  You agree with this, Chris?

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The tail end of the month change back to RNA has been well advertised for the past week and it has a lot of support with the ensembles now. The models did a good job showing the coming end of month change in the tropical forcing a couple of weeks back 

 

Good because this is the pattern change you mentioned-- didn't you say that there would be a good chance for  a big snowstorm just before the pattern changed to warmer?

It would be worth it to actually get something, otherwise tracking weather is an extremely boring hobby.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I’m just saying it is interesting to see MJO with the snow goggles, you with the sunglasses, and the majority of people discussing various results from cold to warm although there is a slight cold bias overall. No offense to anyone haha 

and I'm going to go back to the idea that LR forecasting is pseudoscience.  Can you imagine if physicists were given this kind of leeway when they developed the quark model?  They would be laughed out of the profession.  If you can't achieve a high verification score then it's not even worthy of pursuing.

You have all these different models etc-- which is a sign of disorder and disarray.  When physicists had a similar situation with an overabundance of particles, they developed the quark model in the 70s which consolidated and simplified everything into a few basic building blocks that explained how reality actually works.

Until LR "forecasters" are able to do that, it's hard to take them or their "science" seriously.

 

 

[BxEngine]

Ok. Heard you. Move on man. 

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We'll have a chance for one big snowstorm, and it will come right before the pattern changes to warmer weather.  You agree with this, Chris?

 

I sure hope so. NYC is going to need at least 1 KU event before the season is over to reach normal snowfall. This is the first season with the new higher 29.8” normal seasonal snowfall in NYC. Every season since 09-10 needed at least 1 KU event in the region to make it to at least normal snowfall.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	KU Storms
2022-04-30	6.8	0
2021-04-30	38.6	2
2020-04-30	4.8	0
2019-04-30	20.5	0
2018-04-30	40.9	4
2017-04-30	30.2	2
2016-04-30	32.8	1
2015-04-30	50.3	2
2014-04-30	57.4	3
2013-04-30	26.1	2
2012-04-30	7.4	0
2011-04-30	61.9	3
2010-04-30	51.4	3

 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I sure hope so. NYC is going to need at least 1 KU event before the season is over to reach normal snowfall. This is the first season with the new higher 29.8” normal seasonal snowfall in NYC. Every season since 09-10 needed at least 1 KU event in the region to make it to at least normal snowfall.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	KU Storms
2022-04-30	6.8	0
2021-04-30	38.6	2
2020-04-30	4.8	0
2019-04-30	20.5	0
2018-04-30	40.9	4
2017-04-30	30.2	2
2016-04-30	32.8	1
2015-04-30	50.3	2
2014-04-30	57.4	3
2013-04-30	26.1	2
2012-04-30	7.4	0
2011-04-30	61.9	3
2010-04-30	51.4	3

 

That's crazy.

Also amazing how such a short distance can make a huge difference in snowfall.

I still have only experienced 6 below average snowfall seasons this entire century (2 in last 3 years).

Wasn't the 1980s the same? I believe the only above average snowfall season was 1983 which was the only KU that decade.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I sure hope so. NYC is going to need at least 1 KU event before the season is over to reach normal snowfall. This is the first season with the new higher 29.8” normal seasonal snowfall in NYC. Every season since 09-10 needed at least 1 KU event in the region to make it to at least normal snowfall.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	KU Storms
2022-04-30	6.8	0
2021-04-30	38.6	2
2020-04-30	4.8	0
2019-04-30	20.5	0
2018-04-30	40.9	4
2017-04-30	30.2	2
2016-04-30	32.8	1
2015-04-30	50.3	2
2014-04-30	57.4	3
2013-04-30	26.1	2
2012-04-30	7.4	0
2011-04-30	61.9	3
2010-04-30	51.4	3

 

Looks like we didn't even make it to 10" snowfall without a KU event outside of 2018-19 which was a vast outlier with 20.5" of snow without a KU event.

 

Wait, 2017-18 had 4 KU events?!  I must've missed that!  With 40.9 inches of snow were they all 10 inch events and that's all the snow we had the entire season?

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That's crazy.

Also amazing how such a short distance can make a huge difference in snowfall.

I still have only experienced 6 below average snowfall seasons this entire century (2 in last 3 years).

Wasn't the 1980s the same? I believe the only above average snowfall season was 1983 which was the only KU that decade.

 

Yup although some consider Jan 1987 a KU storm.

NYC had no 30 inch snowfall winters between 1978-79 and 1992-93

[EastonSN+]

I get the general disappointment so far this month, however...

1.) We've had a normal January snowfall month 

2.) We still have Feb and March ( IMBY March has been snowier than December)

3.) The RNA may hurt our snow chances early February however as Don alluded to Mid Feb on the RNA is not detrimental due to shorter wavelengths (so we may see a 2 week period in early Feb of lower but not impossible snow chances)

4.) This decade, unlike the last, we've had some record breaking March/April time periods. Snowy Marches

2019/2018/2017/2015/2013 so 50/50 shot

5.) La Nina Marches tent to produce

6.) Due to the areas relatively low average annual snowfall, only takes one big storm to put us back in the game (2016/2006/2013/1993)

7.) We usually get a good storm during pattern changes, especially with a falling PNA

Yeah of course the rest of the winter may be a whimper, but I don't think just cause the RNA is returning for the above reasons we should close the blinds.

Just my opinion.

Have a great day.

[jm1220]

The fast pattern also means lots of interference with vorts that interact and prevent amplification or force amplification to an extent that the storm rides inland like the last one. Too many ducks on the pond. 

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That's crazy.

Also amazing how such a short distance can make a huge difference in snowfall.

I still have only experienced 6 below average snowfall seasons this entire century (2 in last 3 years).

Wasn't the 1980s the same? I believe the only above average snowfall season was 1983 which was the only KU that decade.

 

The bar was lower for normal snowfall in the 1980s since the 1951-1980 30 year normal was around 24.7” in NYC. So NYC had around 5 seasons in the 1980s with close to normal snowfall. We had 1KU in February 83…1 KU in April 82…2 KUs a few days apart in January 87. The 2nd event did much better in Central NJ to Eastern Long Island. There was another KU in February  87 that favored Central NJ.

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
1980-1981	T	2.8	8.0	T	8.6	0.0	19.4
1981-1982	0.0	2.1	11.8	0.4	0.7	9.6	24.6
1982-1983	0.0	3.0	1.9	21.5	T	0.8	27.2
1983-1984	T	1.6	11.7	0.2	11.9	0.0	25.4
1984-1985	T	5.5	8.4	10.0	0.2	T	24.1
1985-1986	T	0.9	2.2	9.9	T	T	13.0
1986-1987	T	0.6	13.6	7.0	1.9	0.0	23.1
1987-1988	1.1	2.6	13.9	1.5	T	0.0	19.1
1988-1989	0.0	0.3	5.0	0.3	2.5	0.0	8.1
1989-1990	4.7	1.4	1.8	1.8	3.1	0.6	13.4

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The bar was lower for normal snowfall in the 1980s since the 1951-1980 30 year normal was around 24.7” in NYC. So NYC had around 5 seasons in the 1980s with close to normal snowfall. We had 1KU in February 83…1 KU in April 82…2 KUs a few days apart in January 87. The 2nd event did much better in Central NJ to Eastern Long Island. There was another KU in February  87 that favored Central NJ.

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
1980-1981	T	2.8	8.0	T	8.6	0.0	19.4
1981-1982	0.0	2.1	11.8	0.4	0.7	9.6	24.6
1982-1983	0.0	3.0	1.9	21.5	T	0.8	27.2
1983-1984	T	1.6	11.7	0.2	11.9	0.0	25.4
1984-1985	T	5.5	8.4	10.0	0.2	T	24.1
1985-1986	T	0.9	2.2	9.9	T	T	13.0
1986-1987	T	0.6	13.6	7.0	1.9	0.0	23.1
1987-1988	1.1	2.6	13.9	1.5	T	0.0	19.1
1988-1989	0.0	0.3	5.0	0.3	2.5	0.0	8.1
1989-1990	4.7	1.4	1.8	1.8	3.1	0.6	13.4

What's the definition of KU?  I figured it was that you needed 10 inches of snow in at least one of the major cities?

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Thanks @bluewave, you answered the question I was going to ask about that time period. 
 

What has contributed to the past 20 years having so many KU storms, is it the warming SST providing ample energy and moisture? Anything else beyond just chance?

Thanks. 

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What's the definition of KU?  I figured it was that you needed 10 inches of snow in at least one of the major cities?

 

We can get a KU without NYC reaching 10”. But the lowest rank of cat 1 usually requires widespread accumulations over 10” somewhere in the NE corridor. Most KUs also produce numerous 10” + totals in our area. Sometimes the 10”+ zones are east of NYC like Nemo in Feb 2013. With Stella in March 2017, the jackpot was NW of NYC. So the normal or better snowfall winters in NYC need storms that can reach these levels somewhere in our area. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We can get a KU without NYC reaching 10”. But the lowest rank of cat 1 usually requires widespread accumulations over 10” somewhere in the NE corridor. Most KUs also produce numerous 10” + totals in our area. Sometimes the 10”+ zones are east of NYC like Nemo in Feb 2013. With Stella in March 2017, the jackpot was NW of NYC. So the normal or better snowfall winters in NYC need storms that can reach these levels somewhere in our area. 

I was shocked we had 4 KU events in 2017-18 lol.  Are we including the early April 2018 storm as one of them?  That was one of my favorite snowstorms that season.

 

[uncle W]

two analogs that might be good for this year are 1956-57 and 1984-85...

NYC got 13" of snow on December 21-22 1959 but it wasn't a KU event...it was a localized event...

 

[SnoSki14]

Things playing out like I thought except everything is delayed.

We got our snow chances in January but favorable period started later and will end by the 30th or early Feb the latest. 

First 15-20 days of Feb will be torched. Still think late winter will deliver Feb 20 - March 20. 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, uncle W said:

two analogs that might be good for this year are 1956-57 and 1984-85...

NYC got 13" of snow on December 21-22 1959 but it wasn't a KU event...it was a localized event...

 

Maybe we'll get a March 1960 event later in the season

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Thanks @bluewave, you answered the question I was going to ask about that time period. 
 

What has contributed to the past 20 years having so many KU storms, is it the warming SST providing ample energy and moisture? Anything else beyond just chance?

Thanks. 

My guess is there have been several factors contributing to the record snowfall since 02-03. Much stronger blocking patterns both in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Warming winters allow the atmosphere to hold more water vapor. Record SSTs also provide more moisture for snowstorms. The last 20 years will stand against any historic 20 year period for snowfall. But the one caveat is that older eras before the 1980s measured snowfall differently. They measured after snowstorms which allowed the snows to compact. So those older totals would be higher if they used the modern methods. 
 

https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history

[Brasiluvsnow]

As much as I love snow ,Once we get into March it does not do much for me as no matter how big the storm it is usually gone in a day or 2. Once March arrives I am in Spring mode so give me some snow now ( especially when there's cold air around ) or lets just move on. That said we still have 6 weeks of winter left can we please just take advantage of the cold air and opportunities when they are right in front of us ? Begging over,,,,,,,carry on gents

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

As much as I love snow ,Once we get into March it does not do much for me as no matter how big the storm it is usually gone in a day or 2. Once March arrives I am in Spring mode so give me some snow now ( especially when there's cold air around ) or lets just move on. That said we still have 6 weeks of winter left can we please just take advantage of the cold air and opportunities when they are right in front of us ? Begging over,,,,,,,carry on gents

Agreed. I have no use for march snow. After March 1, its time for warmth and outdoor

[SnoSki14]

Just now, psv88 said:

Agreed. I have no use for march snow. After March 1, its time for warmth and outdoor

Mother nature has other plans.

March & December have flipped past decade and March typically averages more snow than December.

To me it's still winter till March 15th. Afterwards spring can come.

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said:

24 here this AM. After tomorrow's minor event and now the train wreck regarding the possibility of this weekend's storm, question is will we see any snow this month?

We have already seen snow this month and we aren't far from normal January snowfall... For the season we are still below average, but I am personally impressed that there is still snow on the ground in Armonk in most wooded areas from the earlier storm. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Mother nature has other plans.

March & December have flipped past decade and March typically averages more snow than December.

To me it's still winter till March 15th. Afterwards spring can come.

To me winter is here till April

[JustinRP37]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

To me winter is here till April

Rank the following: Winter, snow, cold, warm, baseball, and beach. I know you are big into baseball so I'm curious to see your ranking of these!

[Brasiluvsnow]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

To me winter is here till April

Ant this is a lie , I mean I am bad but we all know that the winter cutoff for YOU is Memorial Day some would even argue 4th of July 

[MJO812]

46 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Rank the following: Winter, snow, cold, warm, baseball, and beach. I know you are big into baseball so I'm curious to see your ranking of these!

Winter then baseball