January 2022

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

We've seen worse looks. 

actually it might be good that next weeks 2nd LP is offshore now to far south and east - just a few miles adjustment to the northwest and we have a snowstorm here next week - but since there is a lack of posting recently on here not many folks are thinking positively about this......

[bluewave]

The GFS is overamped on that second wave compared to the Euro, CMC, and UKMET.

 

 

 

[EasternLI]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

actually it might be good that next weeks 2nd LP is offshore now to far south and east - just a few miles adjustment to the northwest and we have a snowstorm here next week - but since there is a lack of posting recently on here not many folks are thinking positively about this......

I mean, I don't see any harm in keeping an eye on it. It's been so boring, why not. 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, EasternLI said:

I mean, I don't see any harm in keeping an eye on it. It's been so boring, why not. 

I agree 

 

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

At least for the first week of January, the convection really increased again over that record WPAC warm pool. So we have forcing north of the equator in the MJO phase 6 region. Forcing in this region during the first week of January allows amped systems to track to our west.

 

This is why posters here have warned about using the RMM plots. Forcing on our side of the hemisphere in phase 6 is definitely not good and the models reflect this for the first week of January. Also, you have this: 

 

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS is over amped on that second wave compared to the Euro, CMC, and UKMET.

 

 

 

The ICON is in the Euro, CMC, UKMET camp as well. GFS is all alone in blowing up the 2nd wave 

[EasternLI]

It's a really tricky time period. How that jet extension interacts with the Pacific Ridge will determine a lot. Not really straightforward but maybe we can grab a progressive wave there. 

[EasternLI]

The Ukie at 12z did amplify the western ridge more than 00z for whatever it's worth. 00z did not. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The ICON is in the Euro, CMC, UKMET camp as well. GFS is all alone in blowing up the 2nd wave 

Yeah, the Euro is like most of the other guidance placing the emphasis on the first wave.

 

[NEG NAO]

There is basically no second wave on the 12Z Euro - but yesterday there was so still have to wait and see

[qg_omega]

Historic torch looking likely Jan 5 to 15, even warmer than what we had most of December as we loose the blocking and RNA rages 

[Rjay]

21 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Historic torch looking likely Jan 5 to 15, even warmer than what we had most of December as we loose the blocking and RNA rages 

*Lose

I see up and down temps (AN overall).  No 10 day torch.  

 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

And I don't see that stopping anytime soon which means winters from now on should mostly be a lot milder with less snows. 

Occasionally there could still be patterns that deliver a significant snowstorms but they'll be a lot rarer. 

Our golden era is sadly over. Meanwhile the west coast and Pacific NW will have their golden era at least until the warming becomes too much. 

Many of us had above to well above average snow last winter. I agree that this Nina background state we have is lousy in general here but eventually it will change again and there will be more chances. We have boom or bust cycles in the winter and have had those as long as we have historic records. Much of the 70s-90s were horrible for snow here. We’ve been incredibly spoiled and wouldn’t surprise me at all if we enter soon a long stretch where we get smacked by the reality of where we live. It’s inevitable anyway. If you want constant stretches with heavy snow you have to live in the snow belts or favored places like the Adirondacks or northern ME. 

[EasternLI]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

thats not what DT says

Or the EPS...

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Or the EPS...

Nice PNA

Would match the mjo in 8

[EasternLI]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Nice PNA

Would match the mjo in 8

Don't have the MJO stuff loaded yet. Or the 12z gefs for that matter. It stopped at like day 10 for me.

[EasternLI]

Yeah, EPS still going for it with the MJO. Actually a day earlier now. The 7th, it was the 8th before.

[NEG NAO]

19 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, EPS still going for it with the MJO. Actually a day earlier now. The 7th, it was the 8th before.

I'd like to see this go into the COD and stay there some of our biggest snowstorms happened while the MJO was in the COD

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice PNA

Would match the mjo in 8

Better hope the PNA is correct because the -NAO. -EPO and -AO are going to be gone. Allan Huffman thinks if it does happen, it’s only a short change: 

 

[EasternLI]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

That was 00z this morning. I'm talking about the 12z run that just came out. Those charts are terrible I never use them. I'm looking at what the ensembles are actually doing with it. 

[EasternLI]

Just a general note. The COD isn't a real thing to the atmosphere. There's always forcing somewhere in the tropics. There can be different amplitudes depending on other factors. What the COD is usually indicating is interference or very low amplitude. So you'll sometimes see it go into the COD and re-emerge elsewhere as one area of convection dissipates while the other is still active. 

[NittanyWx]

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

It's a really tricky time period. How that jet extension interacts with the Pacific Ridge will determine a lot. Not really straightforward but maybe we can grab a progressive wave there. 

Essentially trying to thread the needle...any small piece goes wrong and the whole system is a dud for the immediate local area. 

 

Some interesting mid month trends, though I'd like to see this roll out of the 11-15 before getting too confident in this temporary relaxing of standing wave.

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Essentially trying to thread the needle...any small piece goes wrong and the whole system is a dud for the immediate local area. 

 

Some interesting mid month trends, though I'd like to see this roll out of the 11-15 before getting too confident in this temporary relaxing of standing wave.

Exactly. Same page. I very much appreciate your input. 

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Historic torch looking likely Jan 5 to 15, even warmer than what we had most of December as we loose the blocking and RNA rages 

Because of one OP run?

No I don't see historic.

[Allsnow]

Looks like my call for p8 (along with others here) will workout. I do agree, that the +pna won’t last long given the current state of things. We will just need to make the most of it during a short window 

[leo2000]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like my call for p8 (along with others here) will workout. I do agree, that the +pna won’t last long given the current state of things. We will just need to make the most of it during a short window 

 

I think after P8 it will most likely go to 1 then 2. Could be wrong but the stall in MJO phase 7 argues that it either goes to P8 which it is now then 1-2 or 1-2-3. It could also go to the COD. But most likely P8. 

 

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Better hope the PNA is correct because the -NAO. -EPO and -AO are going to be gone. Allan Huffman thinks if it does happen, it’s only a short change: 

 

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, leo2000 said:

 

I think after P8 it will most likely go to 1 then 2. Could be wrong but the stall in MJO phase 7 argues that it either goes to P8 which it is now then 1-2 or 1-2-3. It could also go to the COD. But most likely P8. 

 

 

8-1-2 or 8- cod would be nice. That would give us chances.

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, Rjay said:

*Lose

I see up and down temps (AN overall).  No 10 day torch.  

 

Not a torch but some above normal days the next 10 for sure though. The new 0Z guidance (Euro, GFS, CMC) are very ugly for snow right through day 10+. Ditto for the UKMET and ICON through the ends of their respective runs. If we get to mid-January without a big change or one imminent, it will be really troubling to say the least. A warmer than normal December with well below average snow during a La Niña is typically a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter…..

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Many of us had above to well above average snow last winter. I agree that this Nina background state we have is lousy in general here but eventually it will change again and there will be more chances. We have boom or bust cycles in the winter and have had those as long as we have historic records. Much of the 70s-90s were horrible for snow here. We’ve been incredibly spoiled and wouldn’t surprise me at all if we enter soon a long stretch where we get smacked by the reality of where we live. It’s inevitable anyway. If you want constant stretches with heavy snow you have to live in the snow belts or favored places like the Adirondacks or northern ME. 

I think I asked this before, how do you have a la nina background state with the oceans warming so much?  Shouldnt all the oceans be steaming hot within the next few years?

I cant wait until steam is rising from the Pacific.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Just a general note. The COD isn't a real thing to the atmosphere. There's always forcing somewhere in the tropics. There can be different amplitudes depending on other factors. What the COD is usually indicating is interference or very low amplitude. So you'll sometimes see it go into the COD and re-emerge elsewhere as one area of convection dissipates while the other is still active. 

so it's basically a transition period