LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I think it's going to delay this look for a while longer. It would be nice if it could delay it till Feb 15 when -PNA starts to lose its influence. hey let it all go out in a big bang with PD3 ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Tatamy said: A lake effect streamer has set up shop over eastern PA and far western NJ. Have been seeing some light snow and flurries around for a couple of hours now. Pretty impressive streamer in western NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Unexpected heavy snow coating everything in Monroe NJ (Middlesex County, near Monmouth border) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Pretty impressive streamer in western NJ Mt. Holly has a special weather statement for this feature indicating the potential for 1/2” to 1” of accumulation for the area extending from the Lehigh Valley across central NJ down to the area of Toms River, NJ. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Mt. Holly has a special weather statement for this feature indicating the potential for 1/2” to 1” of accumulation for the area extending from the Lehigh Valley across central NJ down to the area of Toms River, NJ. Getting it up in my area too, I wonder if this will last most of the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Decent Squall at the beach now here in point pleasant 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OCEAN...MERCER...SOUTHWESTERN WARREN...SOUTHERN SOMERSET...HUNTERDON...NORTHERN BURLINGTON... MONMOUTH...MIDDLESEX...CARBON...SOUTHWESTERN MONROE...NORTHEASTERN LEHIGH...NORTHEASTERN BUCKS AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES... At 916 AM EST, a snow band capable of producing a quick half inch to an inch of snow will impact portions of eastern PA and central NJ. Temperatures are cold enough that snow is quickly accumulating on roads under the band of snow. Locations impacted include... Toms River, Trenton, New Brunswick, Long Branch, Easton, Asbury Park, Somerville, Lehighton, Somerset, Lakewood, Bethlehem, Old Bridge, Jackson, Howell, East Brunswick, South Brunswick, North Brunswick, Marlboro, Manalapan and Ewing. Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra time when traveling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Decent Squall at the beach now here in point pleasant https://www.surfchex.com/cams/manasquan-web-cam/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, dseagull said: https://www.surfchex.com/cams/manasquan-web-cam/ meanwhile the sun is out here lol just north of there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This is what conditions are like at my location currently. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OCEAN...MERCER...SOUTHWESTERN WARREN...SOUTHERN SOMERSET...HUNTERDON...NORTHERN BURLINGTON... MONMOUTH...MIDDLESEX...CARBON...SOUTHWESTERN MONROE...NORTHEASTERN LEHIGH...NORTHEASTERN BUCKS AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES... At 916 AM EST, a snow band capable of producing a quick half inch to an inch of snow will impact portions of eastern PA and central NJ. Temperatures are cold enough that snow is quickly accumulating on roads under the band of snow. Locations impacted include... Toms River, Trenton, New Brunswick, Long Branch, Easton, Asbury Park, Somerville, Lehighton, Somerset, Lakewood, Bethlehem, Old Bridge, Jackson, Howell, East Brunswick, South Brunswick, North Brunswick, Marlboro, Manalapan and Ewing. Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra time when traveling. Lehighton to Toms River is a WNW to ESE trajectory- with the wind direction I suppose? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Tatamy said: This is what conditions are like at my location currently. How heavy is it up by Albrightsville-Lake Harmony area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 58 minutes ago, bluewave said: We definitely want something like that since the Euro is gong in the opposite direction from what we want to see at the start of February. Thanks. Does it keep that look to the end of the run or is it transient? We just need to keep that delayed until the 2nd half of Feb. Like Don said RNA works starting 2nd half of February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Putting aside the model output beyond 2 weeks which is very low skill, we want at least some of the forcing to remain in areas other than the Maritime Continent like we have now. We currently have more of a Nino-like influence with the convection near and east of the date line. This has caused Nino 4 to warm back to neutral. It’s keeping the cold Pacific ridge pattern going. So if we can manage some mixed forcing in February, then maybe we can have a more serviceable shallower -PNA with ridging persisting near if just west of California. I couldn't agree more. I'm just not really looking at the long-term too much currently. With the weekend on the table. Even after the weekend, there's still some more good potential before February too. This will be interesting to monitor moving forward for sure though. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: How heavy is it up by Albrightsville-Lake Harmony area? This type of snow activity tends to be low topped and the activity up in the Poconos is not always well picked up by radar from Mt. Holly. I can’t tell you what the conditions are like up there now however in the space of 5 minutes we went from 3/8 mile visibility to just a few flurries. I would guess that conditions are improving up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: meanwhile the sun is out here lol just north of there We had some good activity in south central ocean county before the streamer migrated north. Perfect mood flakes for my day off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 flurries here in Scarsdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Flurries here in HPN as well. Currently 31*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 hours ago, bluewave said: It all depends on what the forcing does. The MJO stall in December gave us almost a super La Niña record -PNA type pattern. This month the forcing shifted east and is more Nino-like. So we are getting an active southern stream and cold Pacific ridge pattern. February will come down to where forcing goes next. Models typically don’t handle this very well beyond week 2. But if a more La Niña-like pattern shows up in February, then some version of the Aleutians Ridge and Western Trough will return. Optimally, we would want a shallower Western Trough than is being depicted by the 300hr+ Euro. We only had a few La Niña years when a very hostile December greatly improved in January. While the -PNA returned in February, it wasn’t as strong as December. So those years had some carryover of the favorable January pattern into the first week of February. But since our climate has become more extreme in recent years, I am not sure if those older analogs will still apply to this climate. The tail end of the month change back to RNA has been well advertised for the past week and it has a lot of support with the ensembles now. The models did a good job showing the coming end of month change in the tropical forcing a couple of weeks back 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The tail end of the month change back to RNA has been well advertised for the past week and it has a lot of support with the ensembles now. The models did a good job showing the coming end of month change in the tropical forcing a couple of weeks back I normally don't post about the LR, and I typically do appreciate your posts, but have you ever once showed anything that is either normal or cold? LR forecasts for January really busted hard just as those cold calls for December busted hard. This year the LR has abysmal performance despite what anyone says. Based on what I have seen, I am thinking that February will wind up closer to normal with a typical thaw week. I do think there will be storm chances or even just small nuisance storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 25 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I normally don't post about the LR, and I typically do appreciate your posts, but have you ever once showed anything that is either normal or cold? LR forecasts for January really busted hard just as those cold calls for December busted hard. This year the LR has abysmal performance despite what anyone says. Based on what I have seen, I am thinking that February will wind up closer to normal with a typical thaw week. I do think there will be storm chances or even just small nuisance storms. Ok. you’re certainly entitled to think that…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Good news is Winter is not even half over yet (March is typically snowier than December IMBY). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Milder air will return early tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. That front will likely bring some rain and snow showers to the region. There is a chance that the precipitation ends as a period of accumulating snow in parts of the region. The potential exists for a 1"-3" accumulation in parts of the region. Much colder air will follow for the weekend. Some of the guidance hints at the development of another storm that could impact parts of the East Coast, but there remains considerable uncertainty. The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 27th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -2.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.507. On January 16 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.662 (RMM). The January 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.927 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.6° (3.1° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Ok. you’re certainly entitled to think that…. I’m just saying it is interesting to see MJO with the snow goggles, you with the sunglasses, and the majority of people discussing various results from cold to warm although there is a slight cold bias overall. No offense to anyone haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I’m just saying it is interesting to see MJO with the snow goggles, you with the sunglasses, and the majority of people discussing various results from cold to warm although there is a slight cold bias overall. No offense to anyone haha Good evening JRP37. Nicely put …… when navigating the cold months and jousting with the models, the atmosphere will essentially react with ‘less than’ rather than ‘more’ of a definitive prediction. The major difficulty, it seems, is balancing between taking offense or being offensive. Have a good night. As always … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 9 hours ago, Tatamy said: This is what conditions are like at my location currently. Beautiful. I was jealous watching the radar earlier today. I feel like I've missed everything this year. Barely seen any daytime snowfall. But the stats say we're limping along just slightly below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Pattern looks good for St Patrick's day......Heavy Heavy Beer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 It will be ironic if January ends up much wetter than white considering it will very likely end up below normal temp. wise. Right now the NYC stations have reported .25-.5" frozen liquid equivalent and 2.5" liquid. So cold and rainy in summary. I hope it doesn't end that way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy and mild today. High temperatures will likely middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 46° Philadelphia: 49° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.1°; 15-Year: 39.8° Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.5° There will be a period of accumulating snow late tonight through tomorrow morning. A general 1”-3” is likely across most of the region, including New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 15 hours ago, snowman19 said: The tail end of the month change back to RNA has been well advertised for the past week and it has a lot of support with the ensembles now. The models did a good job showing the coming end of month change in the tropical forcing a couple of weeks back Well…this pattern hasnt worked for us much if you like “big” snowstorms. Becoming pretty clear that January is going to end with a lot of near misses 22F at moment 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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