lee59 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Light snow here for the past hour or so. 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Weeklies are cold through mid February No. They are a torch for Feb 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 41 minutes ago, Allsnow said: No. They are a torch for Feb I haven't looked but someone told me they weren't. They are colder than the last weeklies so thats progression. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 I looked at the 00z/17 weeklies and imo, I think we're good for snow opportunities til about Valentines Day when the entire region in NAM north of 60N becomes cold with a dominant vortex up there (cold anomalies), where I don't think we want. So, I think this means, 2-4 more weeks of snow opportunities. Not threading Thursday morning (20th) tonight, since the 18z EC doesn't have anything going on. I am thinking the 00z/18 EC will drift over and that we'll get more consensus with this strong cold front bringing a 1-3" snowfall during rush hour with temps falling to freezing, for a significant portion of our subforum but I can't commit at this time since too many models say NO-it won't happen. Just have to sit on it til maybe there is more favorable modeling. Back in the morning. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Next week definitely also looks interesting with a lot of energy modeled rounding the base of the broad eastern trough. Definitely a lot of potential moving forward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Might need a thread for the anafront on Thursday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, wdrag said: I looked at the 00z/17 weeklies and imo, I think we're good for snow opportunities til about Valentines Day when the entire region in NAM north of 60N becomes cold with a dominant vortex up there (cold anomalies), where I don't think we want. So, I think this means, 2-4 more weeks of snow opportunities. Not threading Thursday morning (20th) tonight, since the 18z EC doesn't have anything going on. I am thinking the 00z/18 EC will drift over and that we'll get more consensus with this strong cold front bringing a 1-3" snowfall during rush hour with temps falling to freezing, for a significant portion of our subforum but I can't commit at this time since too many models say NO-it won't happen. Just have to sit on it til maybe there is more favorable modeling. Back in the morning. arctic front snowfalls do seem to be a nowcast thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: this is pretty effing cold even if it is mid Jan-mid Feb any way to isolate Feb from Jan in this map and just do the first two weeks of Feb? when I hear the word "weeklies" I assume that they give week by week anomaly maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: this is pretty effing cold even if it is mid Jan-mid Feb any way to isolate Feb from Jan in this map and just do the first two weeks of Feb? when I hear the word "weeklies" I assume that they give week by week anomaly maps First week of February: 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: First week of February: Thanks Don, looks normal to me which is fine. Do you think Walt's ideas of snowfall chances through mid Feb has merit? Do you have the anomaly map for the second week of Feb too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: First week of February: Yeah, that map metfan posted is heavily skewed by the end of January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GFS/NAM now both on board for Thursday morning frontal passage event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Don, looks normal to me which is fine. Do you think Walt's ideas of snowfall chances through mid Feb has merit? Do you have the anomaly map for the second week of Feb too? If the pattern change unfolds as shown on the latest EPS, there could be opportunities until mid-February. A faster transition would reduce the window of opportunity. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 29 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, that map metfan posted is heavily skewed by the end of January Most of the cold on the 30-day map is from January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 CMC has some snow Thursday morning too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, that map metfan posted is heavily skewed by the end of January don't need that much cold anyway, all we need is average cold and that's what it looks like we'll have in the beginning of Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: If the pattern change unfolds as shown on the latest EPS, there could be opportunities until mid-February. A faster transition would reduce the window of opportunity. Early to mid February doesn't look bad at all. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 hours ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, that map metfan posted is heavily skewed by the end of January 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Most of the cold on the 30-day map is from January. Weeklies still look good. I don't see how they are bad. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Will begin a Thursday morning thread by 745AM. 1-3" of snow looks to be coming to a part of the forum with any rain possibly washing away pre treatment brine and then snow with temps falling to freezing potentially making for a very hazardous morning commute. Timing and location of best snowfall (1/2 to 1" for 1 hour?) unknown but targeting the subforum. More at 745 AM. Will also update the 21-24 thread headline around 8A. Regarding the weeklies. I look at 500MB and noticed the 7day average weeklies start a pretty good warming of 500MB near the 12th. In that potential transition warming, I see WAA and possible snowfall before the warmth follows. These are weeklies a month in advance... only my subjective take of potentially shakey guidance 3 weeks in advance. I could be wrong. But I am telling my FB group to think winter til about Valentines Day, which is all seasonable cold with one or 2 big cold shots. Usually it can snow in seasonable cold. I do not see dominating overwhelming warmth til at least the 12th. I hope I dont eat my words - Maybe I'll have to give it up sooner, but this is a good 2- possibly 4 week pattern coming. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(24/33) or -4. Month to date is 32.6[-1.5]. Should be 31.5[-2.3]by the 26th. Reached 44 yesterday in early AM and fell to 37 during the PM. Today: 35-37, wind w. and breezy, variable skies. EURO still with 10" on the weekend as the best snow bid in the next 10 days. Weeklies looked -6 for the next 30 days and 20"+ of snow. 32*(56%RH) here at 6am.{was 31* at 4am}. 38* by 4pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Cloudy here this AM, current temp as of 6:30 is 28*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 My post to FB friends ATL-BOS: This holds till I can update a couple of threads and only my take based on modeling that we all see. The heart of winter, probably lingers til about Valentines Day with snow opportunities and a couple of real cold shots. Today: scattered morning flurries I84 to Tughill diminish midday. Thursday morning I84-NYC-PHL: Looks like 1-3" of snow in a 6 hour period centered on sunrise, with potential significant impact to morning travel due to temps falling to freezing during snowfall. There is model uncertainty on amounts. Snow could fall for an hour at 1/2-1". I84 itself seems to be on the northern fringe where snowfall could be less than 1". Amounts also depend on how fast the preceding predawn rain showers change to snow but I am confident of a snow event, just not confident who gets the biggest impact. Tomorrow morning we should have a much better idea of travel impact. East coast snowstorm potential 21st-22nd Atlanta to NYC-Boston: Uncertainty exists on best target, and also where its all snow or freezing rain-sleet. The greatest uncertainty for me is the NYC-BOSTON-I84 corridor. No matter, there does appear to be a strong likelihood of a 5-10" snowfall, especially NC-VA-MD-DE. The snow could fall as sleet-freezing rain Raleigh east. Even Atlanta may see some snow from this. A better idea of timing and target will post tomorrow. If you are interested: The European model has been targeting the entire corridor with a snow storm from near Atlanta to NYC-BOS for a couple of days now, while other models are relucant, so uncertainty exists. An experimental impact graphic follows for Friday into Saturday. It's incomplete not including the whole storm. 646A/18 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny, breezy, and cold today. High temperatures will likely middle and upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 34° Newark: 36° Philadelphia: 39° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.1°; 15-Year: 39.8° Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.6° Tomorrow will be milder ahead of the next cold front. There could be a period of snow or flurries early Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Fwiw, and it isn't much, but the CFS weeklies keep the 2m temps below normal the entire run. Warmest panel at end 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 A lake effect streamer has set up shop over eastern PA and far western NJ. Have been seeing some light snow and flurries around for a couple of hours now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 44 minutes ago, Tatamy said: A lake effect streamer has set up shop over eastern PA and far western NJ. Have been seeing some light snow and flurries around for a couple of hours now. I love these up in the mountains, you get light accumulating snow all day sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 55 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Fwiw, and it isn't much, but the CFS weeklies keep the 2m temps below normal the entire run. Warmest panel at end We definitely want something like that since the Euro is gong in the opposite direction from what we want to see at the start of February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Weeklies still look good. I don't see how they are bad. wow even that last one is good, but these have low skill beyond 2 weeks correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: We definitely want something like that since the Euro is gong in the opposite direction from what we want to see at the start of February. I think it's going to delay this look for a while longer. It would be nice if it could delay it till Feb 15 when -PNA starts to lose its influence. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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