donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly cloudy today. Temperatures will begin to fall this afternoon. High temperatures will likely lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 42° Newark: 42° Philadelphia: 41° Colder air will return for tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don when was the last time we had a month average below freezing? Seems to becoming much more rare. January 2018: 31.7 Last month below 30: February 2015: 23.9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 6z eps look nice for this weekend. Alot of members closer to the coast than the op. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4th highest January 24 hr temperature rise on record at Newark. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=24&month=jan&dir=warm&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 @bluewave What is the website used to pull temperature data in the form of those tables? I’d like to explore that with different parameters. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Also, what is a “KU” storm? Through context I gather it’s a historic or near historic snowstorm with feet of snowfall. But I can’t find a definition and I’ve seen the term used here frequently. I’m a long time lurker that finally made an account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Also, what is a “KU” storm? Through context I gather it’s a historic or near historic snowstorm with feet of snowfall. But I can’t find a definition and I’ve seen the term used here frequently. I’m a long time lurker that finally made an account. Kocin Ucellini they write the book Northeast Snowstorms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 If we can align this with the neutral PNA for early Feb..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: If we can align this with the neutral PNA for early Feb..... AO is all over 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Nam anafront snow for Thursday 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: 6z eps look nice for this weekend. Alot of members closer to the coast than the op. I think this comes back far enough to give us a nice little event. 2-4 3/6 type 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 First threat is a miss offshore on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Alot of vorts around Chaos for the models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: First threat is a miss offshore on the gfs The GFS still looks pretty far off at H5. GEFS still unfocused with a broad timeframe of potential threats. I almost feel like we gotta root for the Thursday "anafrontal" event now. It would be great to have a singular significant threat to track this week, but it might never happen. We gotta take what we can get. Even a dusting this evening to freshen up the muck would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The northern stream storm was too strong this go around. Next weekend it looks too weak. Meet in the middle and we have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: The northern stream storm was too strong this go around. Next weekend it looks too weak. Meet in the middle and we have something. Way too early to give up on this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Way too early to give up on this weekend Nobody's giving up. But we still need major model changes to get good snows. Once guidance locks onto a miss solution inside 5 days, the odds start to stack against us. It's been a while since we were in a good spot inside 5 days. It's nice that we haven't been shut out this year. But most everything has been nighttime and just off-center up to this point this year. A daytime, Saturday snow event would be perfect. A GFS trend towards a sharper trof would be huge to see this evening. But I'm not optimistic based on ensembles and what I've seen so far from the UK, CMC, and ICON. I expect the Euro to be fairly far offshore for Saturday too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Anafrontal lows are always tricky but I kind of like the way this one looks to be setting up. We could actually get something out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Right now only the NAM and to a lesser extent the gfs are showing the anafrontal snow. Low probability at this time but definitely could be a sneaky event though to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12z euro has the storm for next weekend 12” storm for most. 7 more days to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: If we can align this with the neutral PNA for early Feb..... The models are showing solid -PNA by the beginning of February and the signal has been very consistent. The change coming in tropical convective forcing supports it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: 12z euro has the storm for next weekend 12” storm for most. 7 more days to go. I heard it was a Monmouth County jackpot too..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I heard it was a Monmouth County jackpot too..... What’s the saying? Don’t want to be in the jackpot a week out.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Nice snow shower going on here right now, but not accumulating with the temp at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The models are showing solid -PNA by the beginning of February and the signal has been very consistent. The change coming in tropical convective forcing supports it. That's fine negative PNA in Feb is better than December and if we get a negative NAO with it, it can be magical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That's fine negative PNA in Feb is better than December and if we get a negative NAO with it, it can be magical. Yep it's not a death sentence 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: 12z euro has the storm for next weekend 12” storm for most. 7 more days to go. Actually 4.5 days until snow begins at NYC on the EC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The powerful storm that raked coastal areas with winds gusts in excess of 60 mph and brought heavy rain to the region after some snow to some areas is now moving away. Daily precipitation amounts included: Bridgeport: 0.86" (old record: 0.77", 1994) Islip: 1.48" (old record: 0.70", 1994) New York City-JFK: 0.92" New York City-LGA: 1.06" New York City-NYC: 1.15" Newark: 1.30" Tomorrow will be blustery and colder before milder air returns early on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. That front will likely bring some rain and snow showers to the region. There is a chance that the precipitation ends as a period of accumulating snow in parts of the region. Much colder air will follow for the weekend. Some of the guidance hints at the development of another storm that could impact parts of the East Coast, but uncertainty is high. The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 27th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -8.76 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.540. On January 15 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.928 (RMM). The January 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.309 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.7° (3.0° below normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Gefs is starting to look better for the anafront 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Weeklies are cold through mid February 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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