donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Morning thoughts… Clouds will increase during the afternoon. Snow changing to rain or rain will arrive tonight. High temperatures will likely reach upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 39° Newark: 40° Philadelphia: 45° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.1°; 15-Year: 39.9° Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.7° Tomorrow will be very windy as rain ends across the region. Coastal flooding is likely during the morning high tide. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 Will start Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by coldest weather of the season around the 24th. I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid. 921A/16 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, wdrag said: Will start Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by coldest weather of the season around the 24th. I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid. 921A/16 typical of a La nina year. The cold air is uploading over Canada right now with the clipper swinging through by the end of the week. Usually an App runner sets up the next big storm in this pattern along the coast. 1950 App runner storm was similar but this storm not as deep or as powerful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, wdrag said: Will start Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by coldest weather of the season around the 24th. I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid. 921A/16 Glad your starting the new thread. When you started the thread for tonights storm, I was thinking it might be a little premature but you were spot on as far as I am concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 @bluewave any thoughts on when our next snowstorm threat could be? You do very well with pattern reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 15 now after a low of 8 this morning. Been a while since last single digit temp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Pretty big difference between the GEFS and EPS at 240. GEFS has a stark negative AO and NAO combo while the EPS has a cross polar flow (no blocking). MAJOR difference in storm track and speed impacts. Both are obviously cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 It's coming back! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 7 degrees this morning in nw Suffolk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It's coming back! Why did Allsnow put a sad face on this post lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why did Allsnow put a sad face on this post lol Cause we’re gonna freeze our asses off! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 49 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why did Allsnow put a sad face on this post lol With a -pna it’s just going to dump into the west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, Allsnow said: With a -pna it’s just going to dump into the west What shows a negative pna ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: With a -pna it’s just going to dump into the west If the PNa is not as negative as December we snow. Plus Snowgoose and Don showed how Feb is kinder to snowfall with negative PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 19 hours ago, bluewave said: Sure it was. But people that pointed it out in these threads were labeled as being anti snow or overly pessimistic. The PNA flip snowstorm potential was being discussed as far back as December. This matched past climo when long -PNA or Western Trough intervals relaxed. As for this last week, that ocean storm was reliably modeled OTS. The trailing storm system to impact the area on Monday was too amped up with no blocking to hold the high pressure in place. So the OP runs did a great job indicating the cutter track. The GEFS low resolution showing a more easterly track were never designed to handle situations like this. So its always a matter of choosing the right forecast tool for the situation. 100% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The Euro just went from a major snowstorm next weekend with a CCB ripping overhead last night to nothing, zippo today, no storm at all. Barely even FROPA now, positively tilted trough, fast flow, everything sheared and off shore. Model consistency has been pretty bad so far this winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro just went from a major snowstorm next weekend with a CCB ripping overhead last night to nothing, zippo today, no storm at all. Barely even FROPA now, positively tilted trough, fast flow, everything sheared and off shore. Model consistency has been pretty bad so far this winter Euro has been trash 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Euro has been trash None of the models have been stellar. At the end of the run, it parks a TPV over New England. If that’s the case, it’s cold and bone dry. After tonight, the Euro is dry as can be for the next 10+ days, could it be right? Who knows, but would that scenario really surprise anyone given how things have gone here since late November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: If the PNa is not as negative as December we snow. Plus Snowgoose and Don showed how Feb is kinder to snowfall with negative PNA. Depends where the TPV sets up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: If the PNa is not as negative as December we snow. Plus Snowgoose and Don showed how Feb is kinder to snowfall with negative PNA. A trough down to Southern California is bad for us. Numbers don’t matter, I don’t care if the PNA index is -1 or -2, look at the actual synoptic setup, it’s not going to magically be a good pattern for us because the PNA is only -1. If a western trough is dumped down to Tijuana, it’s a bad pattern for us. There are also hints of a +NAO in February, if that’s the case and the NAO is +, along with the RNA, we got big problems of the SE ridge type….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Low of 9. Up to 30 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro just went from a major snowstorm next weekend with a CCB ripping overhead last night to nothing, zippo today, no storm at all. Barely even FROPA now, positively tilted trough, fast flow, everything sheared and off shore. Model consistency has been pretty bad so far this winter How many times have we seen storms lost in the mid range only to be found again? If anything the amount of run to run change shows just about anything is possible. I would wait a bit before throwing up the victory flag for no snow. It would be impressive bad luck to make it to the end of this month with cold around and no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: How many times have we seen storms lost in the mid range only to be found again? If anything the amount of run to run change shows just about anything is possible. I would wait a bit before throwing up the victory flag for no snow. It would be impressive bad luck to make it to the end of this month with cold around and no snow No one should be throwing up any flags for anything. The models are all over the place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Will have to see the EPS but that is a pretty classic SRN US/MA snow setup at 140-170....and also its fairly common to see a few Op runs or even ensembles lose those sort of events at this range because they bury the shortwave in the Gulf. I would not be shocked at all if this makes a comeback and I think it does but I'd favor the SE US and SRN MA for now 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Will have to see the EPS but that is a pretty classic SRN US/MA snow setup at 140-170....and also its fairly common to see a few Op runs or even ensembles lose those sort of events at this range because they bury the shortwave in the Gulf. I would not be shocked at all if this makes a comeback and I think it does but I'd favor the SE US and SRN MA for now And to think.. I liked you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, USCG RS said: And to think.. I liked you. And the EPS has it mostly as an inland snow event LOL. So much for that prediction by me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: And the EPS has it mostly as an inland snow event LOL. So much for that prediction by me Tbh, I am with you. There is more of a suppression or OTS chance here than inland runner. Given the macro-scale players, I would think that an inland runner is just about off the table. But, that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Will have to see the EPS but that is a pretty classic SRN US/MA snow setup at 140-170....and also its fairly common to see a few Op runs or even ensembles lose those sort of events at this range because they bury the shortwave in the Gulf. I would not be shocked at all if this makes a comeback and I think it does but I'd favor the SE US and SRN MA for now I still think we wait until the PNA starts to fall and we get hammered by an 8 to 14 event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 34 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Depends where the TPV sets up 12z would be something we would want for February 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 38 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 12z would be something we would want for February Looks great but I feel like the GEFS is more accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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