EasternLI Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's funny how people are now worried about the next storm. Can we at least be happy the models are showing storm threats? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hopefully the Volcano helped us and will turned the pattern cold until April. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Gefs hinting at a -nao for last week of January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I have to say that 18Z GFS run made me forget about how miserable tomorrows storm is going to be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: I have to say that 18Z GFS run made me forget about how miserable tomorrows storm is going to be. The area from Buffalo thru Rochester over toward Syracuse may get about a foot and a half of snow and it won't be Lake Affect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, lee59 said: The area from Buffalo thru Rochester over toward Syracuse may get about a foot and a half of snow and it won't be Lake Affect. Finally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, lee59 said: The area from Buffalo thru Rochester over toward Syracuse may get about a foot and a half of snow and it won't be Lake Affect. Syracuse and Rochester may have precip type issues, thats how crazy far west tomorrows storm is tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I was just there yesterday and there's barely 2" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 hours ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, we're talking about a western trough, but it's not determined how deep that would be. Simply that it's a favored feature at this time as February begins. Variations matter. Regardless, like it or not, there's a couple snow threats before then as well. That’s it. A more north based -PNA with some ridging lingering near California is always preferable. It’s the deep trough digging toward the Baja that’s not what we ever want to see. Models seem to agree on the ridge pull back closer to the Aleutians. But the critical depth of the -PNA in early February will probably have to wait for later runs. As you mentioned, the AO is even less certain long range for the models. This could be related to the potential for wave breaks to pop up in the short term. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Just in time for spring…. it takes several months for the cooling to occur. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just in time for spring…. it takes several months for the cooling to occur. Actually, this might help for next fall and early winter.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 This is cool: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, North and West said: Actually, this might help for next fall and early winter. . If it turns out it was a high S02 event, absolutely. Even into next winter. Peak cooling usually last about a year after the event. It’s just unfortunate Anthony thought we would see instant cooling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Admittedly I know nothing about the relationship between eruptions and our local climate but I remember someone saying that tropical eruptions could have negative impacts on our winters. For instance, there’s some thought that the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 was a factor in our crap winters of the early 90’s. We benefit more from eruptions at higher latitudes, such as Alaska or Iceland. Again, not saying any of this if fact. Just passing along what I read. Hopefully someone with knowledge on the subject can chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 it was nothing close to pinatubo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 agreed all the fear mongers saying this was a event of the pinatubo scale what are they smoking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 agreed all the fear mongers saying this was a event of the pinatubo scale what are they smoking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 15 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Some news from your south: for the first time in 1077 days, DC (DCA) dropped below 22F. It has literally not dropped below 22F since mid Feb 2019. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Just in time for spring…. it takes several months for the cooling to occur. It's in the Southern Hemisphere isn't it? Much less effects for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHELEG Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 hours ago, Jt17 said: Looks like 20+ hours of snow And now it’s gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: it was nothing close to pinatubo also Pinatubo didn't do much for our winters, unless you think 1993-94 was influenced by Pinatubo (which I doubt....otherwise why was summer 1993 so hot?) If you want a cold winter, Pinatubo wouldnt be strong enough.....you need something on the scale of Tambora. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: it was nothing close to pinatubo and Pinatubo was nothing compared to Tambora 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 hours ago, JTA66 said: Admittedly I know nothing about the relationship between eruptions and our local climate but I remember someone saying that tropical eruptions could have negative impacts on our winters. For instance, there’s some thought that the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 was a factor in our crap winters of the early 90’s. We benefit more from eruptions at higher latitudes, such as Alaska or Iceland. Again, not saying any of this if fact. Just passing along what I read. Hopefully someone with knowledge on the subject can chime in. I was actually alive when Pinatubo erupted and our winters were shit after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: If it turns out it was a high S02 event, absolutely. Even into next winter. Peak cooling usually last about a year after the event. It’s just unfortunate Anthony thought we would see instant cooling. Volcanoes arent the slam dunk cooling that people think they are....you need something exceptional like Tambora. Pinatubo didn't improve our winters at all, so I dont get the fascination with that middling eruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: also Pinatubo didn't do much for our winters, unless you think 1993-94 was influenced by Pinatubo (which I doubt....otherwise why was summer 1993 so hot?) If you want a cold winter, Pinatubo wouldnt be strong enough.....you need something on the scale of Tambora. There is some thought that Pinatubo contributed to a cooler summer in 1992. But yes, this eruptions isn’t close to Pinatubo levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, JTA66 said: There is some thought that Pinatubo contributed to a cooler summer in 1992. But yes, this eruptions isn’t close to Pinatubo levels. Yea, that it probably did do, Summer 1992 was exceptionally cold and rainy. I wonder if volcanoes like this have much more of an effect on summer than they do on winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHELEG Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 CMC delivers the goods.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 GFS OTS, CMC a foot and a half of snow for next weekend. Going to be another long week of model following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS OTS, CMC a foot and a half of snow for next weekend. Going to be another long week of model following. At this point, seeing the GFS OTS is the BEST news we could ever hope for. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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