Allsnow Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Nice changes with the eps this afternoon. Blocking moves into the Ap region while the low north of Japan moves into the Aleutians 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, I just don’t get why the definite statements. Take it two weeks at a time. agree, the vortex is not super strong like 19/20 where it was lights out. We will have chances in January He's an expert on the subject. But I was not a fan of his previous tweet at all either. Where he said that 50mb was heading straight to the pole to strengthen. That has not been the case since he said that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 PNA looks positive at the end of the EPS lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: PNA looks positive at the end of the EPS lol Mjo finally? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Mjo finally? Hopefully 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Mjo finally? Yeah, could be related. Looks like it's still trying to make a move east with it on this run. But it's holding firm on the date for now. Which was/is the 8th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Euro has a big cutter with wave 1 and then a follow up 2nd wave which passes south of us. Didn't have the 2nd wave at 0z. 12Z Euro similar to the 12Z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Winter is coming according to DT 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Some of the key points made in the NOAA MJO update today. Numbers 4 and 5 are related to the discussions we've been having here, so not surprising. They did note some signs of renewed eastward propagation which I think most would like to hear. -Both velocity potential based MJO and RMM indices indicate an active West Pacific MJO event with little continued eastward propagation in recent weeks. -There is disagreement among the dynamical models regarding the predicted evolution of the MJO, leading to continued uncertainty in the outlook. -Tropical cyclone formation is favored over the southern Pacific where any coherence of the MJO is more likely to manifest itself during the next two weeks. -While West Pacific MJO events typically favor colder than normal conditions across the CONUS, extended range model guidance continues to mimic more of an amplified negative Pacific North American pattern, suggestive of La Niña dominating the extratropical response over North America. -An incoherent spatial pattern remains evident in the upper-level velocity potential field, likely due to ongoing competing interference with other modes of tropical variability. -Suppressed conditions have strengthened throughout much of the Indian Ocean. -The RMM based MJO index continues to exhibit a fairly stagnant west Pacific event during the past few weeks. -However, the intraseasonal signal has shown signs of renewed eastward propagation in recent days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z Euro similar to the 12Z GFS Lock it in 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 January...climate stats from Central Park...since 1870... Decade averages... decade...ave...high...low...ave/ max min max...min...snowfall...precipitation 1870's...30.3...37.5...23.8.....53.3.....5.6...68...-4......9.6"......3.29" 1880's...28.7...39.6...24.7.....53.5.....4.3...65...-6......9.1"......4.12" 1890's...31.7...37.6...23.7......55.0.....9.0...64...-2......8.6"......3.46" 1900's...32.1...38.4...25.3.....55.2.....7.5...64...-1......8.1".......3.07" 1910's...32.4...40.9...21.7......57.1......6.6...69...-5......5.1"......3.77" 1920's...30.5...34.0...23.4.....53.9....4.6...62...-2......8.9".....3.52" 1930's...34.7...43.2...28.9.....59.9.....9.7...70...-3......6.4".....3.98" 1940's...31.0...38.6...25.0......56.2.....7.6...63....0......7.7"......3.20" 1950's...33.7...41.4...28.5......58.7....10.8...72....0......5.0"......2.75" 1960's...31.8...37.4...26.7......55.4......8.6...68...-1......7.1"......2.37" 1970's...30.6...37.3...22.1......57.5.....6.0...66...-2......8.0"......4.57" 1980's...31.3...37.4...26.1......57.4.....6.8...63...-2......7.9"......3.26" 1990's...34.8...41.4...25.6......60.9...11.2...66...-2.....6.1"......4.47" 2000's...33.1...40.9...24.7......60.8....9.8...72.....1......7.2"......3.19" 2010's...32.8...38.0...28.6.....59.2.....8.7...66....2....12.7"......3.60"..... 2020's...37.0...39.1...34.8......60.0...17.0...69...14......2.2"......2.12"...2020-2021... 1870- 2019......32.0...43.2...21.7…..57.2......8.0...72...-6.......7.8"....3.45" 1990- 2019......33.6...41.4...24.7.....60.3......9.9...72...-2......8.7"....3.75" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: you agree with this or not ? I think its 30 % ( as of now )possible - I don't think the pattern supports the second wave ( if its real )early next week passing south of us... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: you agree with this or not ? I think its 30 % ( as of now )possible - I don't think the pattern supports the second wave ( if its real )early next week passing south of us... The ridge has been our enemy all month. I think that trends north . We should be fine if there is a good amount of cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Gfs also trended flatter with the storm No 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 @Allsnow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Don't know if it's right, but yeah, the eps did actually do that again. Held firm on the date again too. Hasn't been pushed back yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Was not a fan of the ensembles today but hey, just one day maybe they are back to being better tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: At least for the first week of January, the convection really increased again over that record WPAC warm pool. So we have forcing north of the equator in the MJO phase 6 region. Forcing in this region during the first week of January allows amped systems to track to our west. At some point we have to score a storm. This year feels far less hostile than 97/98 or 01/02. However like u said it's the storm track rather than temp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 I'm noticing an awful lot of spread just after the time of the jet extension impacting the Pacific Ridge and then cutting it off. That's not really surprising. Think that's going to need to play out a little bit. Timing wise, that event is just prior to the modeled push east with the MJO as well. So that's pretty interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Things not looking so good in the medium range. But at our lat-lon they almost never do. The longwave trof axis looks to remain pretty far west predominantly. But we just have to get a little lucky with the timing of features. It doesn't look hopeless, just not imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: At least for the first week of January, the convection really increased again over that record WPAC warm pool. So we have forcing north of the equator in the MJO phase 6 region. Forcing in this region during the first week of January allows amped systems to track to our west. whats caused that warm pool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: At some point we have to score a storm. This year feels far less hostile than 97/98 or 01/02. However like u said it's the storm track rather than temp. Jan 2002 was rather cold and we had a -nao for 3 weeks but the snowstorm went into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 18 hours ago, MJO812 said: Winter is coming according to DT and right under that he asks for money for his newsletter to cover that time period LOL Not a coincidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: whats caused that warm pool? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: And I don't see that stopping anytime soon which means winters from now on should mostly be a lot milder with less snows. Occasionally there could still be patterns that deliver a significant snowstorms but they'll be a lot rarer. Our golden era is sadly over. Meanwhile the west coast and Pacific NW will have their golden era at least until the warming becomes too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 another miss to the south on 12Z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 We've seen worse looks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now