January 2022

[MJO812]

46 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Don't count on it, this winter has been a disappointment thus far.

I'm only 2 inches before my totals last winter.

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

9 degrees lowest in two winters. This is real cold 

Meh 

It's a waste when it rains tomorrow night.

[MJO812]

14 here in Brooklyn 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Agreed Monday never really looked like snow even several days out. I figured the high placement was totally off. 

Ocean storm wasn't a real threat either. The real disappointments are the storm that consistently show snow only to fail 1-2 days out. 

Only 2 model runs showed snow for our area. 

[ForestHillWx]

4 currently. Isn’t bad until the wind blows. Wood stove is pumping. 

[North and West]

Don't count on it, this winter has been a disappointment thus far.

I mean, we’ve had some nice cold weather, some snow in the air, and last February, I had over 40” fall in my backyard. This is how we get averages. So, there’s still February and March, and it can snow then.

We act like if it doesn’t snow by the end of January (every year, I might add), it’s all over. Not sure if you were around for the majority of the winters in the 1980s and 1990s, but they, for the most part, were disappointments if you like snow. We’ve been spoiled like crazy the last 20+ years.


.

[EasternLI]

33 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Don't count on it, this winter has been a disappointment thus far.

Nobody is counting on anything. I merely posted ensemble guidance output. It's a period of interest nothing more. Not everything works out. Even in the very best patterns one could dream about. I do believe we've said that in here numerous times. Simply identifying a period of interest should not draw out frustration of previous events. That's forecasting based on emotion. Not all situations are the same. But I totally understand the reason for the feeling. 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, North and West said:

I mean, we’ve had some nice cold weather, some snow in the air, and last February, I had over 40” fall in my backyard. This is how we get averages. So, there’s still February and March, and it can snow then.

We act like if it doesn’t snow by the end of January (every year, I might add), it’s all over. Not sure if you were around for the majority of the winters in the 1980s and 1990s, but they, for the most part, were disappointments if you like snow. We’ve been spoiled like crazy the last 20+ years.


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I think we are all eager to cash in the next two weeks because the -pna/se ridge looks to return in February. 

[rclab]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

I mean, we’ve had some nice cold weather, some snow in the air, and last February, I had over 40” fall in my backyard. This is how we get averages. So, there’s still February and March, and it can snow then.

We act like if it doesn’t snow by the end of January (every year, I might add), it’s all over. Not sure if you were around for the majority of the winters in the 1980s and 1990s, but they, for the most part, were disappointments if you like snow. We’ve been spoiled like crazy the last 20+ years.


.

Good frigid morning N&W. I remember nearly a half century ago before WWS and WWA’s were commonly used the ominous verbiage, as the frozen precipitation approached, would be “heavy snow warning in effect” and that warning threshold was 4 inches. As always …..

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I think we are all eager to cash in the next two weeks because the -pna/se ridge looks to return in February. 

The pattern looks too good not to cash in. We would really have to be unlucky to not get anything. 

I see overrunning potential into early Feb as well as the cold air will be tough to scour out.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

This morning, the temperature fell to 11° in New York City. That was the coldest temperature since February 1, 2019 when the thermometer also dipped to 11°. Washington, DC had a preliminary low temperature of 23° amidst a record streak of 1,077 consecutive days on which the temperature had not fallen below 20°.

It will be partly sunny, breezy, and very cold. High temperatures will likely reach lower and middle 20s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 21°

Newark: 23°

Philadelphia: 27°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.2°; 15-Year: 39.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.7°

A storm will likely bring snow changing to rain late Sunday night or Monday. A small accumulation of snow and sleet is possible in Philadelphia, Newark and New York City. 

[wishcast_hater]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I think we are all eager to cash in the next two weeks because the -pna/se ridge looks to return in February. 

Looks dry for the foreseeable future.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Looks dry for the foreseeable future.

There was a time Monday looked dry .

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Looks dry for the foreseeable future.

No I don't think so. I'm looking at 21/22 for next storm possibility. 

[Cfa]

Low of 10 here.

No single digits here since Jan 31st, 2019 (1,081 days) which had a low of 3, this may change tonight (hopefully not).

[dmillz25]

10 here

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Let’s hope we can cash in in this +PNA -EPO while we have it in late January. The latest ensembles moved to the EPS idea of a pattern reversal in early February. The big ridge pulls back to the Aleutians allowing a more neutral to eventually -PNA in early February.

 

 

Can't this be a good thing though? I thought our area does well with a negative PNA in February.

[psv88]

Down to 8 in commack, nw Suffolk. Colder than expected

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Let’s hope we can cash in in this +PNA -EPO while we have it in late January. The latest ensembles moved to the EPS idea of a pattern reversal in early February. The big ridge pulls back to the Aleutians allowing a more neutral to eventually -PNA in early February.

 

 

Interesting looking at the teles. Looks to be heading to the Same December look of....

RNA

-AO

-NAO

Now we failed in December because the RNA was at historic levels AND the NAO was very negative causing a meat grinder compression effect.

Now what are the chances we get another HISTORIC RNA? I honestly feel like if the RNA is at a respectable -1 and the NAO is negative again we can actually score a decent amount of snow, especially in February.

Also the MJO is going to be at a much lower amplitude as opposed to December which must have an affect.

What is also very heartening is that timing wise we should be back at 8 for March (in a La Nina), which could lead to a grand finale.

Being 100% honest, I feel pretty good for the chances of our area reaching annual average snowfall.

Gonna go out on a limb and make my first forecast...

January is somewhat disappointing, however we get the famous pattern change storm of a general 8 to 14.

February surprises with 2 to 3 overrunning changeover storms due to the -NAO RNA combo. Approx. 5 to 10 inches for the area combined for Feb.

March starts warm and we believe an early spring may occur. However due to phase 8 la Nina March a similar setup as 2019 occurs. 2 storms within a week. One 1 to 3 and the other 4 to 8.

We end the season at or just below average for snowfall.

What can go wrong?

1. We break all records and get another historic RNA 

2. The currently modeled -NAO is positive.

3. MJO goes into the COD in liu of 8 in March.

What can go right and we eclipse average?

1. We get multiple events in the next 2  weeks.

2. The February -NAO outweighs the weak RNA and we get large overrunning events.

3. We get March/April 2018 or 2015.

 

[EastonSN+]

Our key to a successful February

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Can't this be a good thing though? I thought our area does well with a negative PNA in February.

It’s all about where the 500 mb anomalies line up. A ridge pulling back to the Aleutians could allow the trough to dig into the Western US in February. That scenario generally isn’t favorable for us since it allows systems coming east to pump the SE Ridge. That’s  why we would want to make the most of our +PNA and -EPO interval while it lasts. 

[nyrangers1022]

Too cold.  Need golf weather

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Too cold.  Need golf weather

Need snow

[donsutherland1]

59 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Can't this be a good thing though? I thought our area does well with a negative PNA in February.

Second half of February when the wave lengths shorten.

[North and West]

Our key to a successful February

This winter:



.

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s all about where the 500 mb anomalies line up. A ridge pulling back to the Aleutians could allow the trough to dig into the Western US in February. That scenario generally isn’t favorable for us since it allows systems coming east to pump the SE Ridge. That’s  why we would want to make the most of our +PNA and -EPO interval while it lasts. 

Thanks, however if the trough is less historic than December and the NAO is negative again wouldn't that beat down the SE ridge and allow for overrunning?

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Second half of February when the wave lengths shorten.

Thanks Don. Curious if there are stats on February's with an RNA negative AO combo (basically a subdued December repeat).

Like you said the larger events are probably heavily skewed towards end of the month.

[eduggs]

I'm pretty sick of hearing about the teles. They are weakly predictive of local snowfall events. Correlated yes, but weakly predictive. And in addition, the error associated with predicting their values is high. So we are left discussing highly uncertain and weakly predictive indices. 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'm pretty sick of hearing about the teles. They are weakly predictive of local snowfall events. Correlated yes, but weakly predictive. And in addition, the error associated with predicting their values is high. So we are left discussing highly uncertain and weakly predictive indices. 

I do agree. Example would be February 2018 where all the Teles we're against snowfall and we had a 4 to 8 inch snow event.

Just looking at the teles would say we had no shot at snow.

Dont fear the MJO phase 5!

[SnowGoose69]

The difference in February with a raging -PNA and -AO/NAO is that due to wavelength change the pattern would be markedly different than Dec...you would never have a massive SER in February or March under those same conditions

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'm pretty sick of hearing about the teles. They are weakly predictive of local snowfall events. Correlated yes, but weakly predictive. And in addition, the error associated with predicting their values is high. So we are left discussing highly uncertain and weakly predictive indices. 

That’s why we discuss the 500 mb patterns where the actual height anomalies are located. Raw teleconnection indices by themselves don’t tell you very much. Models are good at identifying the long range long wave patterns. These 500 mb patterns give a good broad sketch of what type of weather is possible within a certain domain. Back in December, the deep Western Trough that the models forecast from mid to late November was the dominant feature. So the lack of snow then was no surprise given the type of 500 mb pattern being shown. As soon as the trough began to lift out of the West in early January, we got the 6-10” snow event. This has matched the past climatology for our area following Pacific pattern changes.