January 2022

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Probably under 15” but above where things currently stand.

Well that doesn't sound too good for a supposedly excellent pattern for the rest of the month..... we have 6" already so that would mean less than 9" for the rest of the month.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

Both the EPS and GEFS give us a classic MJO 8 look in late January as the forcing shifts to the EPAC.

 

 

 

if we dont get a double digit snowstorm in this pattern it will be a huge failure

 

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Well that doesn't sound too good for a supposedly excellent pattern for the rest of the month..... we have 6" already so that would mean less than 9" for the rest of the month.

 

The weather experts on here have written off Monday. People looking out to next weekend…You are already down to 8 or 9 days. Would you take the over? haha

[LoboLeader1]

35* here this AM. My snowblower will likely sit idle for the rest of this month, since winter has been MIA here in the east thus far.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

if we dont get a double digit snowstorm in this pattern it will be a huge failure

 

The pattern started on January 1st and we have already had a 6”+ snowstorm. Since our snowier era began in 2003, only two Januaries had two 6”+ events. Four years had single events that went over 6”. So it would be great if we could get another event to go over 6” by late January or early February. We are already ahead of snowfall expectations in January during a La Niña that gave us under an inch in December.

La Niña years bolded

Monthly Total Snowfall for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Season
2011-2012	0.0	3.4	3.4
2006-2007	0.0	1.9	1.9
2001-2002	0.0	3.3	3.3
2018-2019	T	0.6	0.6
2015-2016	T	28.8	28.8
1999-2000	T	10.5	10.5
1994-1995	T	0.3	0.3
1986-1987	T	16.3	16.3
1972-1973	T	0.9	0.9
1971-1972	T	2.2	2.2
1965-1966	T	9.3	9.3
1953-1954	T	13.1	13.1
1943-1944	T	5.5	5.5
1941-1942	0.1	3.0	3.1
1996-1997	0.2	3.1	3.3
1978-1979	0.2	6.0	6.2
1954-1955	0.2	2.4	2.6
1977-1978	0.3	16.6	16.9
1988-1989	0.4	6.4	6.8
1974-1975	0.4	1.8	2.2
1992-1993	0.5	2.2	2.7
2021-2022	0.6	9.7	10.3
2012-2013	0.9	1.0	1.9
1985-1986	0.9	2.8	3.7
1940-1941	0.9	9.5	10.4

 

[Yanksfan]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

if we dont get a double digit snowstorm in this pattern it will be a huge failure

 

Yep. That’s a KU look.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 33degs.(27/40), or just Normal.

Reached 48 here yesterday.

Today: 42-44 early, then dropping to 15 by tomorrow AM, cloudy early then clearing, wind n. and breezy.

Sunday/Mon storm a bust? (for the snow), just wind and rain.    CMC has insisted T goes from near 0 to 50+ in a short period Sun.---Mon.,  for days now.(easterly gale will do that)       Good chance for 50mph+ gusts between 9pm Sunday-6am Monday.

42*(80%RH) here at 6am---actually since midnite.      43* at 9am.      39* at 5pm       35* at 6pm.     29* at 10pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will see clouds break and a gusty wind develop.  Temperatures will fall during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 42°

Newark: 44°

Philadelphia: 47°

Tomorrow will be a fair but vey cold day. Afterward, a storm will likely bring snow changing to rain late Sunday night or Monday. A small accumulation of snow and sleet is possible in Philadelphia, Newark and New York City. 

[bluewave]

Shallow cold air drain down the Hudson Valley gets NYC close to 10° tomorrow morning.

 

 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Shallow cold air drain down the Hudson Valley gets NYC close to 10° tomorrow morning.

 

 

Euro also gets NYC down to 10 for Sunday  morning.

[wdrag]

Might see gusts around 45 MPH near sundown. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro also gets NYC down to 10 for Sunday  morning.

The models have backed off a bit on the magnitude of the cold they were showing for late January a few days ago. I am hoping this means less of a chance for storm suppression. This more Nino-like pattern has already produced a record STJ in South Florida.

 

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models have backed off a bit on the magnitude of the cold they were showing for late January a few days ago. I am hoping this means less of a chance for storm suppression. This more Nino-like pattern has already produced a record STJ in South Florida.

 

 

No suppression with this upcoming storm. The phase is going to occur too far inland.

[EastonSN+]

Ensembles (GEFS and GEPS) look good however GEPS breaks down the look about the 27th while GEFS looks like it's starting to at day 15.

Hopefully we get one if those great pattern change storms.

This good stretch hit the minute the MJO hit late phase 7 and now 8.

Looks to move to phases 6 and 7 again. Will probably get to 8 again for March for a grand finale.

[EastonSN+]

To add to my last post, not saying we get shut out in Feb. As long as we keep the RNA at say -1.

[EasternLI]

Next weekend is still a period of interest. But it's tough to be enthused with the way things have gone.

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No suppression with this upcoming storm. The phase is going to occur too far inland.

The suppression is today with the 959 mb ocean storm and Arctic outbreak right behind it into the weekend. The PNA ridge axis was just a little too far to the east. The Monday phase matches other very active patterns in recent years. Last December featured the big snowstorm followed by the much warmer system on Christmas. We seldom get big follow up snowstorms so soon following 6-10” snowstorms like we got last week. That’s why a winter like 10-11 was so rare to produce 3 KU events in a little over a month. Most years we are lucky to just get 1 KU event. 

[lee59]

Becoming overcast here from that big ocean storm. Nantucket expecting rain to snow tonight with winds gusting to near 60-70mph. North wind picking up here.

[LoboLeader1]

Winds have picked up here in the past hour, gusting out of the NNW @ 22MPH. 38 here currently under cloudy sky.

 

[eduggs]

Yes please on the 2 day snow event shown on the CMC. But I would gladly take the shorter duration GFS storm for next Sunday. Either way, weekend potential is there.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The pattern started on January 1st and we have already had a 6”+ snowstorm. Since our snowier era began in 2003, only two Januaries had two 6”+ events. Four years had single events that went over 6”. So it would be great if we could get another event to go over 6” by late January or early February. We are already ahead of snowfall expectations in January during a La Niña that gave us under an inch in December.

La Niña years bolded

Monthly Total Snowfall for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Season
2011-2012	0.0	3.4	3.4
2006-2007	0.0	1.9	1.9
2001-2002	0.0	3.3	3.3
2018-2019	T	0.6	0.6
2015-2016	T	28.8	28.8
1999-2000	T	10.5	10.5
1994-1995	T	0.3	0.3
1986-1987	T	16.3	16.3
1972-1973	T	0.9	0.9
1971-1972	T	2.2	2.2
1965-1966	T	9.3	9.3
1953-1954	T	13.1	13.1
1943-1944	T	5.5	5.5
1941-1942	0.1	3.0	3.1
1996-1997	0.2	3.1	3.3
1978-1979	0.2	6.0	6.2
1954-1955	0.2	2.4	2.6
1977-1978	0.3	16.6	16.9
1988-1989	0.4	6.4	6.8
1974-1975	0.4	1.8	2.2
1992-1993	0.5	2.2	2.7
2021-2022	0.6	9.7	10.3
2012-2013	0.9	1.0	1.9
1985-1986	0.9	2.8	3.7
1940-1941	0.9	9.5	10.4

 

That Atlantic City had a foot plus snowstorm and we did not irks me to no end.

 

You said we might be looking at historic cold at the end of the month-- what are snowfall prospects around that time?

 

 

[tdp146]

49 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Winds have picked up here in the past hour, gusting out of the NNW @ 22MPH. 38 here currently under cloudy sky.

 

I just gusted to 21 from the NNW and my anemometer is very sheltered from the north. Can hear the wind outside now. That ocean storm means business.  Hurricane wind warnings way out. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

Might see gusts around 45 MPH near sundown. 

winds are gusty here already

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, tdp146 said:

I just gusted to 21 from the NNW and my anemometer is very sheltered from the north. Can hear the wind outside now. That ocean storm means business.  Hurricane wind warnings way out. 

if it really meant business it would be strong enough to muscle its way on over and hit us

 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That Atlantic City had a foot plus snowstorm and we did not irks me to no end.

 

You said we might be looking at historic cold at the end of the month-- what are snowfall prospects around that time?

 

 

I said some of the models were showing colder potential in late January than we’ll see this weekend. But they have been back and forth in recent days on the magnitude of the cold. Temperatures around 10° tomorrow in NYC would be the coldest in 3 years. I mentioned that less cold suppression could be good for our snowfall prospects. We already have one January 6”+ snowstorm. It would be great to get another before the month is over. The last time we pulled of an early and late January multiple 6”+ snowstorms was 2014. Since 2003, we have had an early January snowfall peak followed by a mid-January lull like this year so far. If we can score a major snowfall event near or after the 20th, then it would match recent snowfall climatology.

Snowiest January days since 2003

1-4….9.8

1-7….12.6

1-12…6.6

1-15…6.2

1-18…6.6

1-21…19.5

1-22…9.2

1-23…32.6

1-26…18.9

1-27….18.0

1-28….12.0

 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Ensembles (GEFS and GEPS) look good however GEPS breaks down the look about the 27th while GEFS looks like it's starting to at day 15.

Hopefully we get one if those great pattern change storms.

This good stretch hit the minute the MJO hit late phase 7 and now 8.

Looks to move to phases 6 and 7 again. Will probably get to 8 again for March for a grand finale.

The breakdown looks to start the last 6 days of the month or so. It probably doesn’t fall apart completely until the 1st week of February 

[LoboLeader1]

Had a wind gust over 40MPH a short time ago, knocked power out briefly.

[Brian5671]

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The breakdown looks to start the last 6 days of the month or so. It probably doesn’t fall apart completely until the 1st week of February 

models are usually too quick on pattern flips, so I'd hedge a bit later for sure.   

[Brian5671]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I said some of the models were showing colder potential in late January than we’ll see this weekend. But they have been back and forth in recent days on the magnitude of the cold. Temperatures around 10° tomorrow in NYC would be the coldest in 3 years. I mentioned that less cold suppression could be good for our snowfall prospects. We already have one January 6”+ snowstorm. It would be great to get another before the month is over. The last time we pulled of an early and late January multiple 6”+ snowstorms was 2014. Since 2003, we have had an early January snowfall peak followed by a mid-January lull like this year so far. If we can score a major snowfall event near or after the 20th, then it would match recent snowfall climatology.

Snowiest January days since 2003

1-4….9.8

1-7….12.6

1-12…6.6

1-15…6.2

1-18…6.6

1-21…19.5

1-22…9.2

1-23…32.6

1-26…18.9

1-27….18.0

1-28….12.0

 

If you look at last Feb snow blitz it was perfect-cold enough for snow but not cold enough to suppress everything OTS

[SnoSki14]

I see a few opportunities for snow before things change. Maybe the 20/21st then 24-26th and likely Jan 30-Feb 3 period.