SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Eduardo said: That almost has a 2013–14 look to it! One of my favorite winters. Hopefully it delivers. So far December has been a massive disappointment and I have one 5" snow event that pretty much melted already. So there's plenty of work to be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Gotta love TWC app. It’s horrible. Tonight was forecast to be 10° but then my current temperature was 10 and so the app said it would be 9° and then my current temp dropped to eight and now my low will be 7°. They have the nerve to charge for the “premium edition” - what good is it if basic weather reporting is inaccurate. Anyway, time to jump in the hot tub! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Unsure if anyone posted but CPC has some interesting possibilities for 19th-22nd including a chance of heavy snow basically Chicago to New Haven northward and a high prob of very cold air invading the upper Midwest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 After another very cold night, tomorrow will turn less harsh as the mercury again returns to the 30s in much of the region. However, another shot of Arctic air is likely late in the week. The subtropical jet could begin to become more active near mid-month. That could create additional opportunities for storminess. January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will very likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks until late in the month. The PNA is now positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 20. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -5.04 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.773. On January 9 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.885 (RMM). The January 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.031 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.6° (2.1° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Unsure if anyone posted but CPC has some interesting possibilities for 19th-22nd including a chance of heavy snow basically Chicago to New Haven northward and a high prob of very cold air invading the upper Midwest. I like this for our biggest snow of the year, then it will warm up -PNA, but may be -NAO too into Feb-March-April. I really like -PNA March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Good radiational cooling tonight. I'm down to 5 up here in Sparta with no wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Down to 13 here. I agree that this airmass isn’t all that impressive. Here and gone in a day. We probably have a few hours left for temps to go down before the airmass rushes out and we start rising again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Single digits. I’ve got 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12.5 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 hours ago, psv88 said: Up to 20 degrees. Pretty meh arctic airmass. Low of 16 and high of 20 (midnight high of 24). 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: stayed in the upper teens here-not that windy today either. Run of the mill. Yeah, just a -14 departure in nyc during the coldest month of the year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 25 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Down to 13 here. I agree that this airmass isn’t all that impressive. Here and gone in a day. We probably have a few hours left for temps to go down before the airmass rushes out and we start rising again. Avg low is 28 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, just a -14 departure in nyc during the coldest month of the year. Cold yes, but nothing close to record breaking-records is -4 for BDR Now that's COLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Cold yes, but nothing close to record breaking-records is -14 for BDR Now that's COLD Was the forecast for record breaking cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Was the forecast for record breaking cold? never said the forecast busted just said it was cold but nothing crazy, tomorrow's 38 will feel tropical though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Was the forecast for record breaking cold? People are expecting NYC to go below zero thats like a once a decade occurrence if even that anymore, probably now more like a once every other decade occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: never said the forecast busted just said it was cold but nothing crazy, tomorrow's 38 will feel tropical though Id rather have snow over arctic cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: People are expecting NYC to go below zero thats like a once a decade occurrence if even that anymore, probably now more like a once every other decade occurrence. Tough for the city to do that. Would need a north wind too. NW wind modifies the airmass as it heads over the warmer great lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12F right now by far the coldest of the season. Good thing there's no strong wind to match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Tough for the city to do that. Would need a north wind too. NW wind modifies the airmass as it heads over the warmer great lakes Unfortunately the last few times it's happened we had no snow on the ground I'd rather have temps in the 20s with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 55 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Down to 13 here. I agree that this airmass isn’t all that impressive. Here and gone in a day. We probably have a few hours left for temps to go down before the airmass rushes out and we start rising again. Definitely overblown. I usually think about great lakes temperatures as impacting snow belt areas, but it mattered here. A friend in Tupper Lake told me they were -17 this am and barely got to 0 today. Not record cold, but definitely less modified there. 12 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Tough for the city to do that. Would need a north wind too. NW wind modifies the airmass as it heads over the warmer great lakes Yea seems some of our coldest weather can be the arctic air that comes right down the Hudson Valley. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, lee59 said: Yea seems some of our coldest weather can be the arctic air that comes right down the Hudson Valley. This. Less downsloping and when the lakes are wide open, less influence from them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Down to 6. It has that “feel” in the lungs when taking a deep breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Unfortunately the last few times it's happened we had no snow on the ground I'd rather have temps in the 20s with snow. Sub zero without snow cover bad for plumbing, good for slowing the spread of invasive species. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: This. Less downsloping and when the lakes are wide open, less influence from them. so we actually want a mild winter there sure explains 2015-16 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, NorthShoreWx said: Sub zero without snow cover bad for plumbing, good for slowing the spread of invasive species. wait does that mean sub zero with snow cover doesn't slow the spread of invasive species? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, ForestHillWx said: Down to 6. It has that “feel” in the lungs when taking a deep breath. dry cold air means we need to drink more water lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4f here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: wait does that mean sub zero with snow cover doesn't slow the spread of invasive species? Snow is a great insulator and prevent desiccation of insects and arachnids overwintering. Extreme cold with no snow cover can kill them. If you hate ticks you don’t want a lot of snow on the ground when we get the frigid weather. This weekend may beat some back! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wait does that mean sub zero with snow cover doesn't slow the spread of invasive species? Depends on the species, but a good snowpack actually keeps the ground warmer ... Plus what Justin said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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