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44 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Didn't this similar pattern last for 2.5 months in 15/16?

Wondering if this can lock in for the remainder on the year? I know the blob was off the west coast, however heard that they still don't know if the blob was caused by the constant ridge or vise versa.

Perhaps this year we reverse 89/90 :)

 

Past dramatic December to January La Niña flips usually occurred with a SSW event. This year we did it without a SSW. The current reversal  is being driven by the convection shift from the Western to Central Pacific. Plus we already have much more snow in early January from Atlantic City to NYC Metro than in the past La Niña years. That being said, the favorable patterns in those  years lasted into the first week of February. More La Niña-like patterns made a return by the 2nd week of February. So it will be interesting to see how we can keep this pattern going.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Past dramatic December to January La Niña flips usually occurred with a SSW event. This year we did it without a SSW. The current reversal  is being driven by the convection shift from the Western to Central Pacific. Plus we already have much more snow in early January from Atlantic City to NYC Metro than in the past La Niña years. That being said, the favorable patterns in those  years lasted into the first week of February. More La Niña-like patterns made a return by the 2nd week of February. So it will be interesting to see how we can keep this pattern going.

Plus patterns lately haven’t been quick to change. We kicked the can on the December pattern improving for several weeks 

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This Arctic shot came in on a NW flow across the Great Lakes which were still very warm from December. You can see how the Arctic air moderated crossing SE of the lakes. The models did a good job with the big spread between the 850 mb temperatures and the surface. The next Arctic front will come through Friday night. This one will have more of a NNW flow avoiding the warmer lakes. So while the 850s won’t be as cold, the 2m low temperatures could be several degrees colder than today. 
 

More NNW flow for early Saturday

74806C2D-6494-4365-AC09-E5B564BBF6E8.thumb.gif.db6f4975ced7487bb895a196235f0a57.gif

 

NW flow moderating across the lakes today

 

29A38DE5-6FF6-4374-8DFE-48213594A0BE.thumb.gif.8002fe7b884254af16215416dbde18d8.gif

 

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Couldn’t have been more depressed reading the Dec thread. A member posted the table showing winters where NYC fails to record a few inches of snow in Dec and then we basically gets bagels the rest of the winter. 
 

Now look where are. Two solid storms in the books, cold and a favorable pattern, with multiple events potentially on the horizon. 

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3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah usually a snowless December during a La Nina means a terrible winter ahead, but it's not a typical La Nina pattern this year. Nice looking pattern ahead.

With increasing warming occurring by the dateline that’s progressively pushing eastward, La Niña is on its way to a quicker demise than earlier thought.  Pattern is behaving more like an El Niño. 

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The first -10 or lower temperature departure day in NYC since the July 4th and Memorial Day weekends.

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
443 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2022

...................................

...THE CENTRAL PARK NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 11 2022...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1869 TO 2022


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         24   1248 AM  69    2020  39    -15       37       
  MINIMUM         15   1058 AM   3    1968  28    -13       28       
  AVERAGE         20                        34    -14       33     
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