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28 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

NW Suffolk looking good on radar, but I may be a little too far east for this one.  It looks like its trying to develop towards here, but can't tell.  Wouldn't be the first near miss.  Still flurrying and been stuck at 25 all evening.  I imagine it will drop quickly behind the squalls.

This is what it looks right now by me

 

https://streamable.com/q6kknc

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2 hours ago, Jt17 said:

Pretty sure eduggs is right. LGA broke the record I believe for snow ratios in a storm of a certain size with like 25/1 ratios with them getting over 9" of snow, but only .4"ish liquid. Wouldn't make sense for JFK a few miles away to be the polar opposite situation. (I live about a mile from LGA so I can report that there was a shocking amount of snow compared to the 3-5 inch forecast, which would have usually lined up better with the liquid precip)

It looked like a much wetter snow down here, tree branches were bending down with the weight of snow on them.  I guess this is why we didn't get the higher snow amounts that the north shore got....the snow was wetter down here

 

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30 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

NW Suffolk looking good on radar, but I may be a little too far east for this one.  It looks like its trying to develop towards here, but can't tell.  Wouldn't be the first near miss.  Still flurrying and been stuck at 25 all evening.  I imagine it will drop quickly behind the squalls.

Nice coating here on all surfaces! Nice surprise!

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2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This is what it looks right now by me

 

https://streamable.com/q6kknc

Nice.  Very nice..  Watched the eastern edge of this slide about a hundred meters to my west.  We got a non-measureable coating in the street, but not as much as to the west and south.  Even if it was a half inch, this type of snow will blow away and evaporate by morning.  I see psv88 replying.  I bet he had a  nice little squall in Commack.

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5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Nice.  Very nice..  Watched the eastern edge of this slide about a hundred meters to my west.  We got a non-measureable coating in the street, but not as much as to the west and south.  Even if it was a half inch, this type of snow will blow away and evaporate by morning.  I see psv88 replying.  I bet he had a  nice little squall in Commack.

Wow!  Not getting anything like that around here....why do these squalls always seem to happen at night?

A few years ago we had intense snow squalls that lasted almost half the night do you remember those? It was as if one squall ended and the next one began.  I remember they started around 4 PM and didn't end until after midnight.  The streets were snowcovered the entire time.

 

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Here is the 18z NAM FOUS for LGA-NYC: Note the large change in stability between 12-18 hours (+9C), the noticeable BL wind shift between 12 and 18 hours, the R1 over 50% at 12 hours, and the excessively steep 12z hr T1-T5 17C lapse rate.  The overnight snow showers and squalls occurrence was predictable yesterday. Basically a strong cold front with a very cold core aloft, and Great Lakes boundary layer moisture being lifted by the cold front then swept south of us. 

0.1": Wantage NJ but I've heard of more elsewhere. This was a lot more than a flurry situation. 

Screen Shot 2022-01-10 at 6.39.00 PM.png

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Also, not sure who on here in December or copied from elsewhere, predicted all of NAM turning cold in January but it seems we're on our way to a rather cold January, my guess colder than this morning.  Too much modeling keeping the 500MB trough in the east and the ridge in the west. This is a good opportunity for us. 

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The next 8 days are averaging 25degs.(20/31) or -8>>>-9 nowadays.

Reached 40 yesterday{at midnite} and 32 during the day.

Today: T steady near 20, then rising a little overnight, wind n to nw and breezy early, m. clear.

GFS Has the MEATS & Cold Cuts---other models just the Cold Cuts---over the next 10 days.     GFS has coldest T in 79 years on Jan. 26.

18*(45%RH) here at 6am.{was 25 at midnite}       17* at 8am.      16* at 10am.      21* at 2pm 

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Today is make it or break it for Friday's threat. 

Oddly enough ensembles continue to trend better for it. GEPS was particularly impressive.

There's a scenario out there where both systems, Fri & Sun/Mon deliver though the odds are very low. There's also a chance neither do. 

Either way we'll have plenty more opportunities next week and beyond.

Current temp 16F, a couple degrees warmer than expected. Weekend could be a lot colder in wake of ocean storm. Single digits perhaps?

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5 hours ago, wdrag said:

Also, not sure who on here in December or copied from elsewhere, predicted all of NAM turning cold in January but it seems we're on our way to a rather cold January, my guess colder than this morning.  Too much modeling keeping the 500MB trough in the east and the ridge in the west. This is a good opportunity for us. 

Yeah, Saturday morning looks like it will be colder than today. Both GFS and Euro drop NYC to near 10°. The next Arctic shot will come a with more NNW flow which doesn’t pass over the warmer Great Lakes like today. Models have below zero readings for the interior.

 

 


 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, Saturday morning looks like it will be colder than today. Both GFS and Euro drop NYC to near or below 10°. The next Arctic shot will come a with more NNW flow which doesn’t pass over the warmer Great Lakes like today. Models have below zero readings for the interior.

 

99CB8CD9-9FF5-49E9-98BB-EEC2C8C3E402.thumb.gif.5886952e3ac2ee70ba94273e108f18e6.gif


 

 

 

I'm looking at NAEFS 8-14 day and both 00z/11 ensemble patterns.  I think east of the Rockies it's going to get very cold for a few days.  Am thinking between the 18th-25th, somewhere in there it will be even colder than this week.  

I think the extreme of Dec has flipped coasts and I can't see this flipping back prior to February. Will need to lose the AK ridge and then I think it takes at least 5 days to lose the cold.

I need to see the NAEFS D8-14 (week two) start warming before I give up on the cold. 

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9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I'm looking at NAEFS 8-14 day and both 00z/11 ensemble patterns.  I think east of the Rockies it's going to get very cold for a few days.  Am thinking between the 18th-25th, somewhere in there it will be even colder than this week.  

I think the extreme of Dec has flipped coasts and I can't see this flipping back prior to February. Will need to lose the AK ridge and then I think it takes at least 5 days to lose the cold.

I need to see the NAEFS D8-14 (week two) start warming before I give up on the cold. 

Yeah, the models have a very strong Alaskan blocking pattern mid to late January. Starting to see some long range runs even colder than this week into the weekend. While the long range CFS has its accuracy issues, it’s now continuing the late January pattern into early February. I have  noticed that these very strong Alaska blocking patterns can take longer than the models forecast to begin to break down. So just something to watch as we approach the start of February.

New run

C512E3BD-E265-4466-BC5F-3E49C16BD655.thumb.png.7bd7e9345ac791ce40705456f3786aa7.png

Old run


FC5BF41A-91C6-42F8-9D9A-D754857E1C08.thumb.png.f7485185004190554cd4ca23dbc5f813.png

 

 

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the models have a very strong Alaskan blocking pattern mid to late January. Starting to see some long range runs even colder than this week into the weekend. While the long range CFS has its accuracy issues, it’s now continuing the late January pattern into early February. I have  noticed that these very strong Alaska blocking patterns can take longer than the models forecast to begin to break down. So just something to watch as we approach the start of February.

New run

C512E3BD-E265-4466-BC5F-3E49C16BD655.thumb.png.7bd7e9345ac791ce40705456f3786aa7.png

Old run


FC5BF41A-91C6-42F8-9D9A-D754857E1C08.thumb.png.f7485185004190554cd4ca23dbc5f813.png

 

 

Agree...

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be sunny but very cold. High temperatures will likely reach upper teens and lower 20s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 21°

Newark: 23°

Philadelphia: 25°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.4°; 15-Year: 40.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 39.9°; 15-Year: 41.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.2°; 15-Year: 42.1°

After a cold start, tomorrow will turn milder. Another shot of very cold air will move into the region late this week.

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There's some shades of 94 with that pattern in late Jan & early Feb. 

It's becoming increasingly likely the cold pattern will stick around longer than expected possibly as late as Feb 10. 

If that's the case then we've yet to experience the true cold/snows that are on the table. 

The Jan 20 - Feb 10 timeframe is also a very favorable period for big snows.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the models have a very strong Alaskan blocking pattern mid to late January. Starting to see some long range runs even colder than this week into the weekend. While the long range CFS has its accuracy issues, it’s now continuing the late January pattern into early February. I have  noticed that these very strong Alaska blocking patterns can take longer than the models forecast to begin to break down. So just something to watch as we approach the start of February.

New run

C512E3BD-E265-4466-BC5F-3E49C16BD655.thumb.png.7bd7e9345ac791ce40705456f3786aa7.png

Old run


FC5BF41A-91C6-42F8-9D9A-D754857E1C08.thumb.png.f7485185004190554cd4ca23dbc5f813.png

 

 

Didn't this similar pattern last for 2.5 months in 15/16?

Wondering if this can lock in for the remainder on the year? I know the blob was off the west coast, however heard that they still don't know if the blob was caused by the constant ridge or vise versa.

Perhaps this year we reverse 89/90 :)

 

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16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Didn't this similar pattern last for 2.5 months in 15/16?

Wondering if this can lock in for the remainder on the year? I know the blob was off the west coast, however heard that they still don't know if the blob was caused by the constant ridge or vise versa.

Perhaps this year we reverse 89/90 :)

 

That is important, chicken or the egg.  LONGGGG ways to go to forecast accurately the potential for extremes just 4 weeks ahead. Just my 2c. 

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36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's some shades of 94 with that pattern in late Jan & early Feb. 

It's becoming increasingly likely the cold pattern will stick around longer than expected possibly as late as Feb 10. 

If that's the case then we've yet to experience the true cold/snows that are on the table. 

The Jan 20 - Feb 10 timeframe is also a very favorable period for big snows.

Didn't 94 have a - EPO, +AO, +NAO regime? 

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