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8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

That’s not a doomsday post. I just said we are in a very favorable snowstorm pattern before then. There is a window. You don’t like if anyone mentions that there may be a time frame with a beginning and end to a good pattern 

the end of the good pattern will probably be the best time to get  a big storm, things look to be suppressed (cold and dry) before then.  1/20 might be our best chance again

 

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7 hours ago, eduggs said:

The enthusiasm on this subforum just collapsed. Personally my pessimism is at a high for the season. Locally we are approaching a year since the last significant snow event.

The spread in the ensembles offers some hope, but the run to run and intermodel continuity in the medium range is disheartening. 

we just had a significant event last week lol

 

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9 hours ago, uncle W said:

1984-85 vrs 2021-22...monthly average temp...2021-22 snowfall is close to what 1984-85 had on this date...it ended up with 25" for the season...Feb warmed the second half of 85 and March was mild...will it happen again???

year.....Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan...

1984...61.8...47.3...43.8...28.8

2021...62.0...46.2...43.8...??? looks cold so far...

The only thing that really stands out to me about that winter is the historic arctic shot in Jan 85, it was a mostly cold and dry month.

 

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we just had a significant event last week lol

 

Some did, other didn't. Also our local jackpot zone was mostly 0.4 to maybe 0.5 liquid. So these areas got really lucky with the ratios. Not knocking it, it was a fun event. But it was not widespread.

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43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we just had a significant event last week lol

 

Not where he lives. In N NJ it was a few inch event I think.

These +PNA, +NAO patterns can be dry/cold/suppressed which wouldn't surprise me if happened again. Also a lot of wave interference with too many S/W ruining opportunities for amplification. It's too early to write off anything but I agree the best opportunity may be as we're transitioning back to a warmer pattern.

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11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not where he lives. In N NJ it was a few inch event I think.

These +PNA, +NAO patterns can be dry/cold/suppressed which wouldn't surprise me if happened again. Also a lot of wave interference with too many S/W ruining opportunities for amplification. It's too early to write off anything but I agree the best opportunity may be as we're transitioning back to a warmer pattern.

I agree with this, and if we do get anything before the pattern was about to change, it would likely be an inch or two from a clipper.

Thats why Jan 20th is probably our best chance for a big storm, just before the pattern changes.

 

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Pretty sure eduggs is right. LGA broke the record I believe for snow ratios in a storm of a certain size with like 25/1 ratios with them getting over 9" of snow, but only .4"ish liquid. Wouldn't make sense for JFK a few miles away to be the polar opposite situation. (I live about a mile from LGA so I can report that there was a shocking amount of snow compared to the 3-5 inch forecast, which would have usually lined up better with the liquid precip)

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FWIW while everyone is watching the threat for next week don’t forget the snow showers and squalls moving down from the N and NW across the Poconos, NW NJ , and SE NY at this time.  They are starting to move in to the range of local radars.  They are producing locally heavy bursts of snow as they move through.

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1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

FWIW while everyone is watching the threat for next week don’t forget the snow showers and squalls moving down from the N and NW across the Poconos, NW NJ , and SE NY at this time.  They are starting to move in to the range of local radars.  They are producing locally heavy bursts of snow as they move through.

Yeah I was hoping they would hold together but the line has largely dissipated. Still could be a few squalls here and there. 

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8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yeah I was hoping they would hold together but the line has largely dissipated. Still could be a few squalls here and there. 

These are low topped.  The radar doesn’t show the full extent of these due to their distance from the sites at Fort Dix and BNL.  I was looking at white outs on traffic cams back in NE PA along I80 mean while the radar showed virtually nothing.

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28 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

These are low topped.  The radar doesn’t show the full extent of these due to their distance from the sites at Fort Dix and BNL.  I was looking at white outs on traffic cams back in NE PA along I80 mean while the radar showed virtually nothing.

Good call on the low topped. HRRR had this largely drying out, which matched radar returns. Turns out not the case.

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4 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

GEM has a similarly intense bomb for the 17th, but a couple 100 miles further off the coast than the GFS run. Let's hope a similarly intense storm is still showing up on the models around Thursday. Would be exciting to track a real ol' fashion nor'easter :)

Well at least it rounds the corner off the Carolinas. Digging further south will give it more time and space.

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