LibertyBell Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: That’s not a doomsday post. I just said we are in a very favorable snowstorm pattern before then. There is a window. You don’t like if anyone mentions that there may be a time frame with a beginning and end to a good pattern the end of the good pattern will probably be the best time to get a big storm, things look to be suppressed (cold and dry) before then. 1/20 might be our best chance again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 hours ago, eduggs said: The enthusiasm on this subforum just collapsed. Personally my pessimism is at a high for the season. Locally we are approaching a year since the last significant snow event. The spread in the ensembles offers some hope, but the run to run and intermodel continuity in the medium range is disheartening. we just had a significant event last week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like my other home is going to get a nice snow squall Yes it does. The squalls moving into the Scranton area are quite potent right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 hours ago, uncle W said: 1984-85 vrs 2021-22...monthly average temp...2021-22 snowfall is close to what 1984-85 had on this date...it ended up with 25" for the season...Feb warmed the second half of 85 and March was mild...will it happen again??? year.....Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan... 1984...61.8...47.3...43.8...28.8 2021...62.0...46.2...43.8...??? looks cold so far... The only thing that really stands out to me about that winter is the historic arctic shot in Jan 85, it was a mostly cold and dry month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: we just had a significant event last week lol Some did, other didn't. Also our local jackpot zone was mostly 0.4 to maybe 0.5 liquid. So these areas got really lucky with the ratios. Not knocking it, it was a fun event. But it was not widespread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 21 minutes ago, eduggs said: Some did, other didn't. Also our local jackpot zone was mostly 0.4 to maybe 0.5 liquid. So these areas got really lucky with the ratios. Not knocking it, it was a fun event. But it was not widespread. .65 here and similar from other stations in this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: .65 here and similar from other stations in this area. True. Central and eastern LI got a little more QPF. The NYC area was the approximate 0.4" line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: True. Central and eastern LI got a little more QPF. The NYC area was the approximate 0.4" line. JFK somehow had 0.9 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: we just had a significant event last week lol Not where he lives. In N NJ it was a few inch event I think. These +PNA, +NAO patterns can be dry/cold/suppressed which wouldn't surprise me if happened again. Also a lot of wave interference with too many S/W ruining opportunities for amplification. It's too early to write off anything but I agree the best opportunity may be as we're transitioning back to a warmer pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: JFK somehow had 0.9 lol Hmm. The daily climate report shows 0.31". https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JFK&product=CLI&format=CI&version=8&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, eduggs said: Hmm. The daily climate report shows 0.31". https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JFK&product=CLI&format=CI&version=8&glossary=1&highlight=off that's weird, Walt's map showed 8.1" of snow and 0.9" liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Not where he lives. In N NJ it was a few inch event I think. These +PNA, +NAO patterns can be dry/cold/suppressed which wouldn't surprise me if happened again. Also a lot of wave interference with too many S/W ruining opportunities for amplification. It's too early to write off anything but I agree the best opportunity may be as we're transitioning back to a warmer pattern. I agree with this, and if we do get anything before the pattern was about to change, it would likely be an inch or two from a clipper. Thats why Jan 20th is probably our best chance for a big storm, just before the pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Pretty sure eduggs is right. LGA broke the record I believe for snow ratios in a storm of a certain size with like 25/1 ratios with them getting over 9" of snow, but only .4"ish liquid. Wouldn't make sense for JFK a few miles away to be the polar opposite situation. (I live about a mile from LGA so I can report that there was a shocking amount of snow compared to the 3-5 inch forecast, which would have usually lined up better with the liquid precip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 FWIW while everyone is watching the threat for next week don’t forget the snow showers and squalls moving down from the N and NW across the Poconos, NW NJ , and SE NY at this time. They are starting to move in to the range of local radars. They are producing locally heavy bursts of snow as they move through. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Tatamy said: FWIW while everyone is watching the threat for next week don’t forget the snow showers and squalls moving down from the N and NW across the Poconos, NW NJ , and SE NY at this time. They are starting to move in to the range of local radars. They are producing locally heavy bursts of snow as they move through. Yeah I was hoping they would hold together but the line has largely dissipated. Still could be a few squalls here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, eduggs said: Yeah I was hoping they would hold together but the line has largely dissipated. Still could be a few squalls here and there. A special weather statement was just issued 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, eduggs said: Yeah I was hoping they would hold together but the line has largely dissipated. Still could be a few squalls here and there. These are low topped. The radar doesn’t show the full extent of these due to their distance from the sites at Fort Dix and BNL. I was looking at white outs on traffic cams back in NE PA along I80 mean while the radar showed virtually nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Picked up an inch in that line up here in Vernon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Very intense squall line through here in rockland.. whitening everything up..even the roads 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Irishmick9 said: Picked up an inch in that line up here in Vernon I have been seeing the same thing on traffic cams across NE PA for the past couple of hours. It is a quick hitter but it’s fierce as it moves through with very low visibilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, Irishmick9 said: Picked up an inch in that line up here in Vernon Nice. The band looks pretty solid into Westchester Co. too. I'll know soon how much the radar is seeing further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Yup, pretty good squall coming through central Morris Co.. Dense, small flakes, 0.75mi, everything dusted up pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 28 minutes ago, Tatamy said: These are low topped. The radar doesn’t show the full extent of these due to their distance from the sites at Fort Dix and BNL. I was looking at white outs on traffic cams back in NE PA along I80 mean while the radar showed virtually nothing. Good call on the low topped. HRRR had this largely drying out, which matched radar returns. Turns out not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Started flurrying here. I noticed a dusting on Southampton webcam from the cell out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 16° here Nice fresh coating on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Solid coating here too, maybe 1/3rd inch. Perfect for a snow walk. Good luck NYC, LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxSnowWx37 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just had a intense snow squall pass by..winds and snow almost made it to zero visibility..everything is white again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 NW Suffolk looking good on radar, but I may be a little too far east for this one. It looks like its trying to develop towards here, but can't tell. Wouldn't be the first near miss. Still flurrying and been stuck at 25 all evening. I imagine it will drop quickly behind the squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jt17 said: GEM has a similarly intense bomb for the 17th, but a couple 100 miles further off the coast than the GFS run. Let's hope a similarly intense storm is still showing up on the models around Thursday. Would be exciting to track a real ol' fashion nor'easter Well at least it rounds the corner off the Carolinas. Digging further south will give it more time and space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Quick video from around 12:40 am: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now