MJO812 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, Tatamy said: What ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 22 minutes ago, Tatamy said: I'm most scared of ensemble member 19. But I think something like 10, 11, or 16 is actually possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 -PNA evaporated on the EPS at 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: We may have to wait until after 1/18 for something. The pattern will still be favorable at that point through about 1/25. I think after 1/25 things may become hostile with a +NAO and a tanking -PNA….. We will def score within the next 2 weeks. If it doesn't happen this week it'll happen next week. Next week is an excellent period historically as well. I don't think we've ever seen this modeled pattern (since 2000) not produce at least one big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 43 minutes ago, EasternLI said: -PNA evaporated on the EPS at 12z 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Time to move south… wouldn’t have to deal with this cold.. who agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Greg g said: Time to move south… wouldn’t have to deal with this cold.. who agrees Me. Cold is stupid. Days are short. Can't do much outside. Season goes by the slowest out of all 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Not me, give me all the cold and snow. 10F or so is exhilarating. Beyond that, just have to dress (layer) appropriately and wear something with down insulation unless you're being active. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 No thank you.. I would take the heat over the cold any day.. that’s why Florida is on the horizon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, Greg g said: No thank you.. I would take the heat over the cold any day.. that’s why Florida is on the horizon Way more activities to do outside. So boring staying inside when you're not a skier or snowboarder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 37 minutes ago, EasternLI said: The huge error bars out past the 25th or so mean it's not really worth looking at. Almost anything is possible out there in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, eduggs said: The huge error bars out past the 25th or so mean it's not really worth looking at. Almost anything is possible out there in the LR. You're preaching to the choir. I found his comment humorous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 27 minutes ago, Greg g said: Time to move south… wouldn’t have to deal with this cold.. who agrees I hate it more when it feels like a steam bath outside for a good portion of the year honestly. That's why I would hate to live in the south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 This cold can kick rocks, especially with no snow. if its cold and dry let it fly! bring on the blizzards with this cold and i wouldn’t care 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 We are now getting some run to run consistency for (locally) terrible OP runs on all guidance through the medium range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 26 minutes ago, EasternLI said: You're preaching to the choir. I found his comment humorous. That’s why we like to look at where the actual 500mb anomalies are located. Plus the vendors have their own custom teleconnection indices which differ from the CPC official values that we are all familiar with. The Alaskan blocking signal is so strong for week 2, that it will probably hold into the last week of the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 It will be bitterly cold tomorrow. Temperatures will likely rise no higher than the upper teens and lower 20s as the core of the Arctic air mass moves through the region. Even Washington, DC's record-smashing 1,072 day streak without a temperature in the teens could come to an end tomorrow or Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be less harsh as the mercury again returns to the 30s in much of the region. The subtropical jet could begin to become more active near mid-month. That could create additional opportunities for storminess. January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will very likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks until late in the month. The PNA has just gone positive and is likely to remain positive through January 20. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -24.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.059. On January 8 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.032 (RMM). The January 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.047 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.8° (1.9° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, eduggs said: We are now getting some run to run consistency for (locally) terrible OP runs on all guidance through the medium range. Use the ensembles Op runs can change in a second 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Use the ensembles Op runs can change in a second I am using the ensembles. They have been trending in the wrong direction with a low hit ratio. There is still a chance for Fri, Sun, Tue etc, but the likelihood for each has been decreasing with every run. The shortwaves are too closely spaced. We need a pretty significant model error somewhere. It's an explosive pattern, so we can score big if something changes. But right now the odds are against us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, eduggs said: I am using the ensembles. They have been trending in the wrong direction with a low hit ratio. There is still a chance for Fri, Sun, Tue etc, but the likelihood for each has been decreasing with every run. The shortwaves are too closely spaced. We need a pretty significant model error somewhere. It's an explosive pattern, so we can score big if something changes. But right now the odds are against us. I think Walt cautioned about wave spacing, so let's keep expectations low for the next week. After mid week next week, hopefully our odds go up significantly to score, but there are never any guarantees in the weather no matter what the pattern might look like. All we can do is wait and track and hope. Do not invest emotionally either way in singular runs. Gotta watch trends and consensus only. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I'd feel better if we saw more waffling in the models... windshield wiper style. That would seemingly indicate higher uncertainty and a chance that things break more favorably. But that's not what we're seeing recently. Just slow, steady trends away from us. There will be snowstorms, but probably for others. Well I guess beyond day 7 or so we're still very much in the game. It's just not worth tracking out in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: That’s why we like to look at where the actual 500mb anomalies are located. Plus the vendors have their own custom teleconnection indices which differ from the CPC official values that we are all familiar with. The Alaskan blocking signal is so strong for week 2, that it will probably hold into the last week of the month. Agreed. In addition, I know why the EPS did what it did from 00z to 12z. It's having some difficulty with how to handle tropical convection. Which, I'm sure you already suspected as well. It's back in line with the GEFS now at 12z in that regard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 45 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Agreed. In addition, I know why the EPS did what it did from 00z to 12z. It's having some difficulty with how to handle tropical convection. Which, I'm sure you already suspected as well. It's back in line with the GEFS now at 12z in that regard. Yeah, the continued forcing near the dateline is keeping that strong Alaskan blocking pattern going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 In the meantime, do not be surprised to see a a band of snow showers, a few with SW+ thru the 184-I80 corridors into NYC-LI between 10P-3A. Think it's forming on BGM radar at 01z, with excessively steep low lvl moist lapse rates, a slight wind shift to NNW behind the band with much more stable air arriving at sunrise (and with the more notably falling temps-unsure if anyone noticed the 6C drop in BL temp between 06z and 12z on the NAM FOUS). Hopefully I was up to a dusting. Some places might get 1/2-1" fluff? Will rereview Thu night-Fri, Sunday centered snow opportunities tomorrow morning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 57 minutes ago, wdrag said: In the meantime, do not be surprised to see a a band of snow showers, a few with SW+ thru the 184-I80 corridors into NYC-LI between 10P-3A. Think it's forming on BGM radar at 01z, with excessively steep low lvl moist lapse rates, a slight wind shift to NNW behind the band with much more stable air arriving at sunrise (and with the more notably falling temps-unsure if anyone noticed the 6C drop in BL temp between 06z and 12z on the NAM FOUS). Hopefully I was up to a dusting. Some places might get 1/2-1" fluff? Will rereview Thu night-Fri, Sunday centered snow opportunities tomorrow morning. A peak at a webcam along I81 north of Scranton shows this activity is still very healthy. Visibility at this location (MM206) looked to be 1/4 mile or less. Radar up there looks good. Latest run of the HRRR (01z) indicates this activity could drop up to 1/2” across NE PA and far NW NJ and adjacent SE NY down towards the Cuomo Bridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 14 hours ago, uncle W said: ...Max in single digits... date...............max min mean 12/20/1884.......7...-4...1.5 12/20/1942.......8...-3...2.5 12/29/1917.......8...-6...1.0 12/30/1917.......2.-13..-5.5 12/30/1880.......4...-6..-1.0 12/31/1917.......6...-7..-0.5 01/03/1879.......7...-4...1.5 01/12/1886.......8....2...5.0 01/13/1912.......8...-3...2.5 01/13/1914.......9...-3...3.0 01/21/1985.......9...-2...3.5 01/24/1882.......6...-6...0.0 02/02/1881.......9...-3...3.0 02/05/1918.......4...-6..-1.0 02/05/1886.......7...-4...1.5 02/08/1895.......8....2...5.0 02/09/1934.......8.-15..-3.5 02/10/1899.......7...-6...0.5 02/11/1899.......9...-2...3.5 02/12/1899.......9....4...6.5 02/15/1943.......8...-8...0.0 02/17/1896.......7...-5...1.0 ............................................................... what the heck was going on in 1898-1899 and 1917-1918 that we had highs in the single digits 3 straight days? and there was a repeat performance in the latter winter in February! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, Tatamy said: A peak at a webcam along I81 north of Scranton shows this activity is still very healthy. Visibility at this location (MM206) looked to be 1/4 mile or less. Radar up there looks good. Latest run of the HRRR (01z) indicates this activity could drop up to 1/2” across NE PA and far NW NJ and adjacent SE NY down towards the Cuomo Bridge. Looks like my other home is going to get a nice snow squall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 hours ago, eduggs said: I'd feel better if we saw more waffling in the models... windshield wiper style. That would seemingly indicate higher uncertainty and a chance that things break more favorably. But that's not what we're seeing recently. Just slow, steady trends away from us. There will be snowstorms, but probably for others. Well I guess beyond day 7 or so we're still very much in the game. It's just not worth tracking out in fantasy land. this is exactly why we dont want a big arctic outbreak here, the storms invariably go south or east of here. Lake effect land is the best place to be for this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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