January 2022

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That's funny. Both would work for us for different reasons.

TBH I would take the EPS as the negative AO is shredding Everything. Sure we would be at a cutter risk but would setup trailing wave potential.

GEFS could still work but more light event potential.

At some point we WILL snow. 

That's some pretty good disagreement. Uncertainty seems to be on tap for now. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, EasternLI said:

That's some pretty good disagreement. Uncertainty seems to be on tap for now. 

Agreed and both would work here to some extent. Could be worse.

[EasternLI]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed and both would work here to some extent. Could be worse.

Oh yeah, it could absolutely be worse. All of the cold could be on the other side of the globe. Just would be nice to have some better agreement between those. One way or another. 

[NittanyWx]

46 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I'd be cautious of those RMM charts if I were you...

 

I say this every year and no one ever listens.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

I say this every year and no one ever listens.

I'm sorry.

[SnoSki14]

Any OP run past 5 days is in weenie land. Even 3+ days is a lot. 

Ensembles still look iffy with continued -PNA. If blocking were stronger we could've counteracted it. 

Right now things look very cutterish.

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Any OP run past 5 days is in weenie land. Even 3+ days is a lot. 

Ensembles still look iffy with continued -PNA. If blocking were stronger we could've counteracted it. 

Right now things look very cutterish.

 

I would take that over the meat grinder look we have now. Get the cutter to bring in cold and trailing weak wave to produce. NOT a great look but better than now.

[EasternLI]

19 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

I say this every year and no one ever listens.

Until I see some changes near Indonesia at this point, I'm extremely skeptical. Models have been underestimating that area the whole time. I'm interested to see NOAA's update.

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Until I see some changes near Indonesia at this point, I'm extremely skeptical. Models have been underestimating that area the whole time. I'm interested to see NOAA's update.

I agree with you. I doubt we ever see it actually go into phase 8. This is shades of several winters ago when the models wanted to go phase 8 from November through March and it never happened

[CIK62]

This GFS run takes it down 20 to 30 degrees from earlier runs:

 

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I agree with you. I doubt we ever see it actually going into phase 8. This is shades of several winters ago when the models wanted to go phase 8 from November through March and it never happened

 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The VP anomalies chart and forecast tells the whole story with the very impressive La Niña standing wave near 120 E.

 

Yeah, I mean here's today's satellite example. Just acting like the anchor that it has been all along. To me, this is the main driving force for the Pacific Ridge and resulting -PNA thus far. This is a known area for doing exactly that. We could use some subsidence to to try and knock this down somewhat. Especially on the western flank. But even the last attempt at that wasn't very effective. Models have been continually weakening this late in their runs, but its been an erroneous endeavor to date. 

[donsutherland1]

There was a question about the longest the MJO stayed in the same phase. The record is 28 days when the MJO was in Phase 2 from August 6 through September 2, 2008.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

Here’s a question for you fellas what’s the Longest the MJO has ever hung around in a certain phase?

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56480-january-2022/?do=findComment&comment=6232547

 

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There was a question about the longest the MJO stayed in the same phase. The record is 28 days when the MJO was in Phase 2 from August 6 through September 2, 2008.

Thank you for this!

I had only quickly scanned the winter months and was curious myself. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The VP anomalies history and forecast tells the whole story with the very impressive La Niña standing wave near120 E.

 

This La Niña and -PDO mean business, very well coupled. As you pointed out that Niña standing wave is one of the strongest in history. If we don’t see a major SSW and we follow Niña climo, we are probably going to torch starting by late January and February…..

[NEG NAO]

Can't make this stuff up the 12Z GFS develops the LP early next week further south and west in northern Louisiana and it moves east notheast and misses most of the area to the south

[Stormlover74]

29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Can't make this stuff up the 12Z GFS develops the LP early next week further south and west in northern Louisiana and it moves east notheast and misses most of the area to the south

So the gfs is gfsing

[NEG NAO]

The 12Z Canadian has no second storm for next week and 0 snowfall through 10 days

[snowman19]

This is not good, stronger than normal SPV continues, no signs of any SSW or SPV disruption over the next 3+ weeks: 

 

[Cfa]

Mood flakes seem to be underrated on here, I’m surprised no one’s mentioned it.

I’ll take snow squalls and mood flakes any day of the week over the higher impact systems (unless thundersnow is present).

[NittanyWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This La Niña and -PDO mean business, very well coupled. As you pointed out that Niña standing wave is one of the strongest in history. If we don’t see a major SSW and we follow Niña climo, we are probably going to torch starting by late January and February…..

It's well correlated with this impressive warm pool in the WPac.  The problem isn't just the standing wave as it's also generating Rossby waves that are continuing to cause wave breaking and amping this Aleutian ridge.  It's a tough cycle to break out of right now.

 

It can snow, but it is significantly more difficult with this background state and it continues to be conducive to causing this PNA to dip and a lack of appreciable HP in Eastern Canada, especially with the Atlantic side looking as it does.

 

I think there are sub seasonal periods where you might be able to hit the sweet spot if you can eject a KW and/or get some westward propagation from an ERW timed with that.  Breaks the cycle of wave breaking for a few days and may allow the Aleutian ridge to roll over and dump some of this further east.

 

But right now this remains a challenge.

[SnoSki14]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is not good, stronger than normal SPV continues, no signs of any SSW or SPV disruption over the next 3+ weeks: 

 

I think this is good

[thunderbolt]

47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is not good, stronger than normal SPV continues, no signs of any SSW or SPV disruption over the next 3+ weeks: 

 

Why don’t you post the rest of his Tweet

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think this is good

The only thing good, is it’s not displacing and dumping into Eurasia. Other then that it’s more of the same. 

[EasternLI]

25 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

It's well correlated with this impressive warm pool in the WPac.  The problem isn't just the standing wave as it's also generating Rossby waves that are continuing to cause wave breaking and amping this Aleutian ridge.  It's a tough cycle to break out of right now.

 

It can snow, but it is significantly more difficult with this background state and it continues to be conducive to causing this PNA to dip and a lack of appreciable HP in Eastern Canada, especially with the Atlantic side looking as it does.

 

I think there are sub seasonal periods where you might be able to hit the sweet spot if you can eject a KW and/or get some westward propagation from an ERW timed with that.  Breaks the cycle of wave breaking for a few days and may allow the Aleutian ridge to roll over and dump some of this further east.

 

But right now this remains a challenge.

Thank you for posting your thoughts on this. I'm pleased to see the first part lining up with what I was thinking on the same matter. 

[MJO812]

Euro has a big cutter with wave 1 and then a follow up 2nd wave which passes south of us. Didn't have the 2nd wave at 0z.

[Allsnow]

24 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Why don’t you post the rest of his Tweet

 

[Allsnow]

Strat forecast can only be taken 2 weeks at a time. If we were to get a ssw it wouldn’t show up in the long range. I also question that tweet a bit, as the Pv will be taken a hit to start January 

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Strat forecast can only be taken 2 weeks at a time. If we were to get a ssw it wouldn’t show up in the long range. I also question that tweet a bit, as the Pv will be taken a hit to start January 

I agree. Even 2 weeks is tentative. So much depends on the total hemispheric pattern. Which we're struggling with on guidance right now. Are we confident how that's going to look? I'm not. I do see the shots it's taking currently too. It's not like it's sitting at the pole all cozy like we've seen in the past. The continued disconnect is interesting. I feel like we don't see that very often. 

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I agree. Even 2 weeks is tentative. So much depends on the total hemispheric pattern. Which we're struggling with on guidance right now. Are we confident how that's going to look? I'm not. I do see the shots it's taking currently too. It's not like it's sitting at the pole all cozy like we've seen in the past. The continued disconnect is interesting. I feel like we don't see that very often. 

Yeah, I just don’t get why the definite statements. Take it two weeks at a time. 
 

agree, the vortex is not super strong like 19/20 where it was lights out. We will have chances in January