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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

A day 11 OP model? Really?  Belongs in banter

 

Yeah the ensemble looked nothing like it...it was an example though once the Pac jet gets strong of how you run into that same issue of the cold not pressing south at all...that can even happen without a SER if the Pacjet is strong enough

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I know it's crazy but I ain't giving up on the ocean storm for Friday.

The trends on the GEFS are notable. I'm giving it another day or so to see what the trends are.

That storm is a long shot. It’s best for it to get out asap to allow heights to recover enough to get the weekend storm to come up the coast. The GFS OP took a step towards that.

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2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Really think the fat lady is singing about any hope this weekend for snow. Too bad because it's going to be cold. The ocean storm and the high are just not going to let it happen. Oh well, hopefully something happens next week. 

You realize it's only Monday 

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1984-85 vrs 2021-22...monthly average temp...2021-22 snowfall is close to what 1984-85 had on this date...it ended up with 25" for the season...Feb warmed the second half of 85 and March was mild...will it happen again???

year.....Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan...

1984...61.8...47.3...43.8...28.8

2021...62.0...46.2...43.8...??? looks cold so far...

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48 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Big shift south on the CMC for the weekend. This could be painful. Still time though.

We may have to wait until after 1/18 for something. The pattern will still be favorable at that point through about 1/25. I think after 1/25 things may become hostile with a +NAO and a tanking -PNA…..

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14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We may have to wait until after 1/18 for something. The pattern will still be favorable at that point through about 1/25. I think after 1/25 things may become hostile with a +NAO and a tanking -PNA…..

Can we get through this favorable period first before posting doomsday posts.

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15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Can we get through this favorable period first before posting doomsday posts.

That’s not a doomsday post. I just said we are in a very favorable snowstorm pattern before then. There is a window. You don’t like if anyone mentions that there may be a time frame with a beginning and end to a good pattern 

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5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Day 5 on the Euro is sad. Such a potent looking wave but it will be a struggle to get it close enough to us with that suppressive Atlantic height field.

I know that things can change, but we probably need to face reality and lay low for a week until the pattern matures some and then we can come back and track more legit threats.

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The enthusiasm on this subforum just collapsed. Personally my pessimism is at a high for the season. Locally we are approaching a year since the last significant snow event.

The spread in the ensembles offers some hope, but the run to run and intermodel continuity in the medium range is disheartening. 

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