NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 0Z Canadian totally different solution for next weekend VS. GFS miss to the south takes clipper and redevelops right on top of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 0Z Canadian totally different solution for next weekend VS. GFS miss to the south takes clipper and redevelops right on top of us The CMC has shown a significant event next weekend for 4 straight cycles. It's been consistent with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 hours ago, uncle W said: the first six winters I was alive for did not have a max in the teens...a max of 15 is pretty cold...more than a few snowy winters had no days with a max in the teens... single digit maxes seem to be very rare.....1993-94 had a max of 10 so barely missed.... 1984-85 had a max of 9, I remember that day well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Uncle is the 1917/18 daily max of 2 degrees the closest NYC has come to a Max of 0 or below since 1869? world war 1 and world war 2 winters were amazingly cold on both sides of the Atlantic Look how rare single digit high days are....we barely missed in 1993-94 and the one in 1984-85 I remember really well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pequest Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Arctic front must have just pushed through here. Winds have suddenly picked up at 3am. Back to bed!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 6 hours ago, eduggs said: The 0z op GFS shows why it can be so frustrating to get excited about a favorable looking "pattern." It's an op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Yeah, I mean you want to see a favorable pattern show up first. That doesn't mean it has to ever produce. However, what it does mean is that there's a higher chance of actually producing something. If models subsequently start showing snow events, they can be taken more seriously. When models show snow events without a favorable pattern, you can lean towards "forget about it". That's how "patterns" should be viewed. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 26 here as of 6AM. Seems even in a favorable pattern "we need to thread the needle", which is why I pay no mind to models 3 days and beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 6z GFS is saying what favorable pattern? Shows a big rainstorm at day 11. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Morning thoughts… In the wake of the Arctic front’s passage, temperatures are falling. It will be partly sunny, windy, and cold today. High temperatures will likely reach upper 20s and lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 28° Newark: 31° Philadelphia: 32° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.5°; 15-Year: 40.3° Newark: 30-Year: 39.9°; 15-Year: 41.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.3°; 15-Year: 42.2° Tomorrow will be the coldest day this winter so far. Temperatures will rise no higher than the upper teens and lower 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: 6z GFS is saying what favorable pattern? Shows a big rainstorm at day 11. Gone by 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 27degs.(21/32) or -6>>>-8 nowadays. Reached 41 yesterday. Today: Falling T's, 32 down to 17 tomorrow AM, wind wnw. and breezy. Variable clouds. EURO lost its Sunday storm and now the GFS has something---musical chairs? CMC is 20". 32*(50%RH) here at 6am.{was 40 at midnite} 30* at 7am. 29* at 9am. 30* at Noon. 32* at 2pm. 28* at 6pm. 27* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Anyone else rebuild their kids snowman last night while snow was wet? 26F brutal. Gusty NW wind TOGA takeoffs all around today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 8 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Uncle is the 1917/18 daily max of 2 degrees the closest NYC has come to a Max of 0 or below since 1869? yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: world war 1 and world war 2 winters were amazingly cold on both sides of the Atlantic Look how rare single digit high days are....we barely missed in 1993-94 and the one in 1984-85 I remember really well ...Max in single digits... date...............max min mean 12/20/1884.......7...-4...1.5 12/20/1942.......8...-3...2.5 12/29/1917.......8...-6...1.0 12/30/1917.......2.-13..-5.5 12/30/1880.......4...-6..-1.0 12/31/1917.......6...-7..-0.5 01/03/1879.......7...-4...1.5 01/12/1886.......8....2...5.0 01/13/1912.......8...-3...2.5 01/13/1914.......9...-3...3.0 01/21/1985.......9...-2...3.5 01/24/1882.......6...-6...0.0 02/02/1881.......9...-3...3.0 02/05/1918.......4...-6..-1.0 02/05/1886.......7...-4...1.5 02/08/1895.......8....2...5.0 02/09/1934.......8.-15..-3.5 02/10/1899.......7...-6...0.5 02/11/1899.......9...-2...3.5 02/12/1899.......9....4...6.5 02/15/1943.......8...-8...0.0 02/17/1896.......7...-5...1.0 ............................................................... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 NYC needs to get down to 13° tomorrow in order to beat the lowest temperature of the last two winters. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2021-04-30 14 0 2020-04-30 14 0 2019-04-30 2 0 2018-04-30 5 0 2017-04-30 14 0 2016-04-30 -1 0 2015-04-30 2 0 2014-04-30 4 0 2013-04-30 11 0 2012-04-30 13 0 2011-04-30 6 0 2010-04-30 13 0 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gone by 12z? Let’s hope we can score something before 1/25, because the PNA is going to tank big time again. I think we do score something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Let’s hope we can score something before 1/25, because the PNA is going to tank big time again. I think we do score something Likely the case BUT, 1. If the RNA is say -1 instead of -2 we can snow if Feb. Especially if the -NAO returns as well. 2. Sets up for a potentially great March due to La Nina and progression/loop of MJO would put us back to 8 by March if we follow the same progression from December into Jan. Will be fun to see how it unfolds in any event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Currently 25* here, feels more like 11* with the wind chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 29F right now, which is meh cold for mid Jan. We used to have highs in the teens and low single digits. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said: 6z GFS is saying what favorable pattern? Shows a big rainstorm at day 11. you forgot to mention what it showed for early next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Likely the case BUT, 1. If the RNA is say -1 instead of -2 we can snow if Feb. Especially if the -NAO returns as well. 2. Sets up for a potentially great March due to La Nina and progression/loop of MJO would put us back to 8 by March if we follow the same progression from December into Jan. Will be fun to see how it unfolds in any event. yep-we just need to avoid a crazy -PNA like we saw in December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: yep-we just need to avoid a crazy -PNA like we saw in December. I tend to doubt it will be that strong and other favorable indices will help create a more winter like pattern for us in Feb......... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said: 6z GFS is saying what favorable pattern? Shows a big rainstorm at day 11. A day 11 OP model? Really? Belongs in banter 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 29F right now, which is meh cold for mid Jan. We used to have highs in the teens and low single digits. In the tri-state? I think 20s yes, but teens for highs is a tall order due to the proximity to the ocean. Meaning, has it happened, yes, but you seem to imply those type of temps used to happen with regularity, which is not the case. In any event the projected hi temp for my area tomorrow is 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: In the tri-state? I think 20s yes, but teens for highs is a tall order due to the proximity to the ocean. Meaning, has it happened, yes, but you seem to imply those type of temps used to happen with regularity, which is not the case. In any event the projected hi temp for my area tomorrow is 17. Many areas in tri-state have little snow left on the ground also.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 hours ago, uncle W said: ...Max in single digits... date...............max min mean 12/20/1884.......7...-4...1.5 12/20/1942.......8...-3...2.5 12/29/1917.......8...-6...1.0 12/30/1917.......2.-13..-5.5 12/30/1880.......4...-6..-1.0 12/31/1917.......6...-7..-0.5 01/03/1879.......7...-4...1.5 01/12/1886.......8....2...5.0 01/13/1912.......8...-3...2.5 01/13/1914.......9...-3...3.0 01/21/1985.......9...-2...3.5 01/24/1882.......6...-6...0.0 02/02/1881.......9...-3...3.0 02/05/1918.......4...-6..-1.0 02/05/1886.......7...-4...1.5 02/08/1895.......8....2...5.0 02/09/1934.......8.-15..-3.5 02/10/1899.......7...-6...0.5 02/11/1899.......9...-2...3.5 02/12/1899.......9....4...6.5 02/15/1943.......8...-8...0.0 02/17/1896.......7...-5...1.0 ............................................................... Good morning Unc. -15, 1934 … what amazing conditions allowed for such a drop? Either UHI was a non factor then or we missed -20 because of it. I remember my Dad telling me how, waiting for the 3rd Ave streetcar he watched the temperature dropping on a visible thermometer. He was 18 at the time. He told me he was coming home from work later going to school. The story was related to me because I was complaining about far less harsh conditions only ‘ just’ going back and forth from school. Lesson learned, mouth shut. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 33 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: In the tri-state? I think 20s yes, but teens for highs is a tall order due to the proximity to the ocean. Meaning, has it happened, yes, but you seem to imply those type of temps used to happen with regularity, which is not the case. In any event the projected hi temp for my area tomorrow is 17. Yeah, I think the lowest maximum average temp in NYC is 38. This isn't exactly Minneapolis or Fargo. Yes, we get extreme cold but it's not as common as some people might think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 This LP on 12Z GFS started out in southern Canada and went south to the gulf coast caused by all the blocking??Then departs off the south/north carolina coasts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 The kicker is annoying me. Lotta potential here but it's too many little vorts and a displaced baroclinic zone. May have to wait until next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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