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5 hours ago, uncle W said:

the first six winters I was alive for did not have a max in the teens...a max of 15 is pretty cold...more than a few snowy winters had no days with a max in the teens...

 

single digit maxes seem to be very rare.....1993-94 had a max of 10 so barely missed.... 1984-85 had a max of 9, I remember that day well.

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3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Uncle is the 1917/18 daily max of 2 degrees the closest NYC has come to a Max of 0 or below since 1869?

world war 1 and world war 2 winters were amazingly cold on both sides of the Atlantic

Look how rare single digit high days are....we barely missed in 1993-94 and the one in 1984-85 I remember really well

 

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Yeah, I mean you want to see a favorable pattern show up first. That doesn't mean it has to ever produce. However, what it does mean is that there's a higher chance of actually producing something. If models subsequently start showing snow events, they can be taken more seriously. When models show snow events without a favorable pattern, you can lean towards "forget about it". That's how "patterns" should be viewed. 

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Morning thoughts…

In the wake of the Arctic front’s passage, temperatures are falling. It will be partly sunny, windy, and cold today. High temperatures will likely reach upper 20s and lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 28°

Newark: 31°

Philadelphia: 32°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.5°; 15-Year: 40.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 39.9°; 15-Year: 41.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.3°; 15-Year: 42.2°

Tomorrow will be the coldest day this winter so far. Temperatures will rise no higher than the upper teens and lower 20s.

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The next 8 days are averaging 27degs.(21/32) or -6>>>-8 nowadays.

Reached 41 yesterday.

Today: Falling T's, 32 down to 17 tomorrow AM, wind wnw. and breezy.     Variable clouds.

EURO lost its Sunday storm and now the GFS has something---musical chairs?      CMC is 20".

32*(50%RH) here at 6am.{was 40 at midnite}    30* at 7am.     29* at 9am.     30* at Noon.     32* at 2pm.   28* at 6pm.       27* at 8pm.

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

world war 1 and world war 2 winters were amazingly cold on both sides of the Atlantic

Look how rare single digit high days are....we barely missed in 1993-94 and the one in 1984-85 I remember really well

 

...Max in single digits...

date...............max min mean

12/20/1884.......7...-4...1.5

12/20/1942.......8...-3...2.5

12/29/1917.......8...-6...1.0

12/30/1917.......2.-13..-5.5

12/30/1880.......4...-6..-1.0

12/31/1917.......6...-7..-0.5

01/03/1879.......7...-4...1.5

01/12/1886.......8....2...5.0

01/13/1912.......8...-3...2.5

01/13/1914.......9...-3...3.0

01/21/1985.......9...-2...3.5

01/24/1882.......6...-6...0.0

02/02/1881.......9...-3...3.0

02/05/1918.......4...-6..-1.0

02/05/1886.......7...-4...1.5

02/08/1895.......8....2...5.0

02/09/1934.......8.-15..-3.5

02/10/1899.......7...-6...0.5

02/11/1899.......9...-2...3.5

02/12/1899.......9....4...6.5

02/15/1943.......8...-8...0.0

02/17/1896.......7...-5...1.0

...............................................................

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NYC needs to get down to 13° tomorrow in order to beat the lowest temperature of the last two winters.

 

D9587492-19F8-42BD-A9A9-775ADCF7255A.thumb.gif.5f2835ffcccc876a1df46b5d6644d012.gif


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
2021-04-30 14 0
2020-04-30 14 0
2019-04-30 2 0
2018-04-30 5 0
2017-04-30 14 0
2016-04-30 -1 0
2015-04-30 2 0
2014-04-30 4 0
2013-04-30 11 0
2012-04-30 13 0
2011-04-30 6 0
2010-04-30 13 0


 

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20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Let’s hope we can score something before 1/25, because the PNA is going to tank big time again. I think we do score something 

 

Likely the case BUT,

1. If the RNA is say -1 instead of -2 we can snow if Feb. Especially if the -NAO returns as well.

2. Sets up for a potentially great March due to La Nina and progression/loop of MJO would put us back to 8 by March if we follow the same progression from December into Jan.

Will be fun to see how it unfolds in any event.

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Likely the case BUT,

1. If the RNA is say -1 instead of -2 we can snow if Feb. Especially if the -NAO returns as well.

2. Sets up for a potentially great March due to La Nina and progression/loop of MJO would put us back to 8 by March if we follow the same progression from December into Jan.

Will be fun to see how it unfolds in any event.

yep-we just need to avoid a crazy -PNA like we saw in December.

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

yep-we just need to avoid a crazy -PNA like we saw in December.

I tend to doubt it will be that strong and other favorable indices will help create a more winter like pattern for us in Feb.........

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37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

29F right now, which is meh cold for mid Jan. We used to have highs in the teens and low single digits.

In the tri-state? I think 20s yes, but teens for highs is a tall order due to the proximity to the ocean. Meaning, has it happened, yes, but you seem to imply those type of temps used to happen with regularity, which is not the case. 
 

In any event the projected hi temp for my area tomorrow is 17. 

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3 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

In the tri-state? I think 20s yes, but teens for highs is a tall order due to the proximity to the ocean. Meaning, has it happened, yes, but you seem to imply those type of temps used to happen with regularity, which is not the case. 
 

In any event the projected hi temp for my area tomorrow is 17. 

Many areas in tri-state have little snow left on the ground also....

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

...Max in single digits...

date...............max min mean

12/20/1884.......7...-4...1.5

12/20/1942.......8...-3...2.5

12/29/1917.......8...-6...1.0

12/30/1917.......2.-13..-5.5

12/30/1880.......4...-6..-1.0

12/31/1917.......6...-7..-0.5

01/03/1879.......7...-4...1.5

01/12/1886.......8....2...5.0

01/13/1912.......8...-3...2.5

01/13/1914.......9...-3...3.0

01/21/1985.......9...-2...3.5

01/24/1882.......6...-6...0.0

02/02/1881.......9...-3...3.0

02/05/1918.......4...-6..-1.0

02/05/1886.......7...-4...1.5

02/08/1895.......8....2...5.0

02/09/1934.......8.-15..-3.5

02/10/1899.......7...-6...0.5

02/11/1899.......9...-2...3.5

02/12/1899.......9....4...6.5

02/15/1943.......8...-8...0.0

02/17/1896.......7...-5...1.0

...............................................................

Good morning Unc. -15, 1934 … what amazing conditions allowed for such a drop? Either UHI was a non factor then or we missed -20 because of it. I remember my Dad telling me how, waiting for the 3rd Ave streetcar he watched the temperature dropping on a visible thermometer. He was 18 at the time. He told me he was coming home from work later going to school. The story was related to me because I was complaining about far less harsh conditions only ‘ just’ going back and forth from school. Lesson learned, mouth shut. As always ….

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33 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

In the tri-state? I think 20s yes, but teens for highs is a tall order due to the proximity to the ocean. Meaning, has it happened, yes, but you seem to imply those type of temps used to happen with regularity, which is not the case. 
 

In any event the projected hi temp for my area tomorrow is 17. 

Yeah, I think the lowest maximum average temp in NYC is 38.  This isn't exactly Minneapolis or Fargo.  Yes, we get extreme cold but it's not as common as some people might think.  

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