EastonSN+ Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 49 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I can’t remember the exact year. But sometime around 2010 didn’t we have multiple snowstorms in a row on LI? 10/11 had three blockbusters and a norlun trough. Then the pattern changed and we got 1 to 3 from a changeover storm in Feb. Then a 4.5 inch changeover event in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: 10/11 had three blockbusters and a norlun trough. Then the pattern changed and we got 1 to 3 from a changeover storm in Feb. Then a 4.5 inch changeover event in March. 2010/2011 and 2014/2015 are two of the only winters I can recall in my adult life where we truly had snow persistence on the ground throughout the winter, where fallen snow isn't immediately melted within a few days. I recall that happening more as a kid in the 90's and early 2000's (grew up in central NJ). Pretty excited for the potential here for the remainder of Jan. Everything looks like it's coming together in a way that seemed fantasylandish back in Dec. Would love for another nice storm or two + enough cold to keep it on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said: 2010/2011 and 2014/2015 are two of the only winters I can recall in my adult life where we truly had snow persistence on the ground throughout the winter, where fallen snow isn't immediately melted within a few days. I recall that happening more as a kid in the 90's and early 2000's (grew up in central NJ). Pretty excited for the potential here for the remainder of Jan. Everything looks like it's coming together in a way that seemed fantasylandish back in Dec. Would love for another nice storm or two + enough cold to keep it on the ground. I loved 13/14 the last time the polar vortex visited as well as the Winters you listed. 58 inches of snow before we were shut out in March and DC started racking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 The GFS now has the CMC Miller B storm as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Arctic air will move into the region starting late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will see the temperature remain nearly steady during the daytime before falling. Readings will likely top out in the upper 20s and perhaps lower 30s throughout much of the region. A bitterly cold day will follow on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain near or below 20° throughout the day as the core of the Arctic air mass moves through the region. Even Washington, DC's record-smashing 1,071 day streak without a temperature in the teens could come to an end. Wednesday will be less harsh as the mercury again returns to the 30s. The subtropical jet could begin to become more active near mid-month. That could create additional opportunities for storminess. January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -27.74 today. That was the lowest value since June 20, 2020 when the SOI was -33.95. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.148. MJO information was not available. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.0° (1.7° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The GFS now has the CMC Miller B storm as well. Produces a respectable light snow event. But I still hope that's not close to the final outcome for that period. There's a lot of potential, but this run there's mostly wave interference and mistiming. We could use more southern stream involvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 The next 10 days look great on the mean H5 anomaly charts, but we're still going to need some luck getting all the pieces aligned favorably. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Could be banter, but 94/95 and 95/96 were the best winters in North Jersey as a kid growing up. The mountains of snow piled at the end of the road (grew up on a dead end) were epic for neighborhood battles of king of the hill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: Produces a respectable light snow event. But I still hope that's not close to the final outcome for that period. There's a lot of potential, but this run there's mostly wave interference and mistiming. We could use more southern stream involvement. Agreed. I do think this favorable period will last longer than expected, so if the next 2 weeks do not pan out there is still time IMO. Also, the old fashioned pattern changing storm (Jan 1996) can occur if we are lucky once the pattern does relax. OT - Marches usually produce in La Ninas, hopefully this does too IF we migrate to an unfavorable pattern in FEB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 23 hours ago, snowman19 said: Thank you to you and everyone else. It was my Aunt, cancer, she had been fighting it for the last 17+ years, she first got diagnosed back in 2004, she finally lost her battle. At least she’s at peace now. Just an ugly, horrible disease. My hope is that one day they find a cure…. Sorry for your loss Snowman,,,she is in a better place than you and I hang in there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 It's like a Jackson Pollock painting of shortwaves running around. Just going to have to stay alert. Next weekend window is a legit one IMO. Let's see what ensembles do, not just today, but as the week progresses. And if it doesn't work out, there's more opportunity ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, EasternLI said: It's like a Jackson Pollock painting of shortwaves running around. Just going to have to stay alert. Next weekend window is a legit one IMO. Let's see what ensembles do, not just today, but as the week progresses. And if it doesn't work out, there's more opportunity ahead. Yeah, numerous opportunities with so many shortwaves rotating around the Hudson Bay vortex in mid to late January. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, numerous opportunities with so many shortwaves rotating around the Hudson Bay vortex in mid to late January. Yup, the EPS has really come around. The GEFS doesn't disagree. Not even any hint of breaking anything down yet either. Doesn't look like a one chance wonder at all. Which is really nice. This is a 5 day mean. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 GEFS continues to trend better for Thurs/Fri. Getting closer to something more interesting. Good lead time of 4 days. Could keep trending more favorably. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GEFS continues to trend better for Thurs/Fri. Getting closer to something more interesting. Good lead time of 4 days. Could keep trending more favorably. Is it poor form these days for peeps to post visuals of storms that are only 4/5 days out now? Not asking for clown maps, just a little more in here to see when I check in would be fun/informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Currently 36* here with light rain falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 33 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yup, the EPS has really come around. The GEFS doesn't disagree. Not even any hint of breaking anything down yet either. Doesn't look like a one chance wonder at all. Which is really nice. This is a 5 day mean. Yeah, also an impressive week 2 Arctic outbreak signal from an ensemble mean for much of the CONUS. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, also an impressive week 2 Arctic outbreak signal from an ensemble mean for much of the CONUS. Makes sense with the cross polar flow look setting up. Have you seen the arctic recently? Its frozen. I feel like we haven't seen that in forever. No open water to modify the airmass this year. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 24 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Makes sense with the cross polar flow look setting up. Have you seen the arctic recently? Its frozen. I feel like we haven't seen that in forever. No open water to modify the airmass this year. Yea been real cold in Alaska and the arctic sea ice extent is more than its been in years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 winters coldest max and total days max below 20...the last two winters had a low max of 25... winter....coldest max and number of times max temps were below 20... 2020-21...0....25 2019-20...0....25 2018-19...2....14 2017-18...5....13 2016-17...0....23 2015-16...1....15 2014-15...1....19 2013-14...3....17 2012-13...0....20 2011-12...0....27. 2010-11...0....23. 2009-10...0....20 2008-09...1....16 2007-08...0....20 2006-07...1....18 2005-06...0....24 2004-05...2....18 2003-04...4....15 2002-03...1....15 2001-02...0....31 2000-01...0....25 1999-00...1....19 1998-99...0....25. 1997-98...0....29. 1996-97...1....17 1995-96...3....17 1994-95...0....20 1993-94...5....10 1992-93...0....27 1991-92...0....23 1990-91...0....20 1989-90...1....18 1988-89...0....20. 1987-88...1....17 1986-87...1....19 1985-86...0....22 1984-85...1......9 1983-84...3....13 1982-83...0....21 1981-82...6....15 1980-81...3....14 1979-80...0....21 1978-79...6....13 1977-78...0....21 1976-77...5....12 1975-76...2....15 1974-75...0....27 1973-74...0....22 1972-73...1....18. 1971-72...1....15 1970-71...4....12 1969-70...3....14 1968-69...0....22 1967-68...4....13 1966-67...1....16 1965-66...1....19 1964-65...3....16 1963-64...0....22 1962-63...1....13 1961-62...0....24 1960-61...2....19 1959-60...0....23 1958-59...0....22 1957-58...2....10 1956-57...1....12 1955-56...1....18 1954-55...1....17 1953-54...0....21 1952-53...0....29. 1951-52...0....20 1950-51...0....20 1949-50...0....22 1948-49...0....22. 1947-48...2....18. ...................................................................... 1942-43...2......8. 1935-36...4....16 1934-35...5....16 1933-34...6......8. 1917-18...12......2. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Lake effect snow machine finally will get into action. Areas to the east of Lake Ontario could get 2 ft and more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, uncle W said: winters coldest max and total days max below 20...the last two winters had a low max of 25... winter....coldest max and number of times max temps were below 20... 2020-21...0....25 2019-20...0....25 2018-19...2....14 2017-18...5....13 2016-17...0....23 2015-16...1....15 2014-15...1....19 2013-14...3....17 2012-13...0....20 2011-12...0....27. 2010-11...0....23. 2009-10...0....20 2008-09...1....16 2007-08...0....20 2006-07...1....18 2005-06...0....24 2004-05...2....18 2003-04...4....15 2002-03...1....15 2001-02...0....31 2000-01...0....25 1999-00...1....19 1998-99...0....25. 1997-98...0....29. 1996-97...1....17 1995-96...3....17 1994-95...0....20 1993-94...5....10 1992-93...0....27 1991-92...0....23 1990-91...0....20 1989-90...1....18 1988-89...0....20. 1987-88...1....17 1986-87...1....19 1985-86...0....22 1984-85...1......9 1983-84...3....13 1982-83...0....21 1981-82...6....15 1980-81...3....14 1979-80...0....21 1978-79...6....13 1977-78...0....21 1976-77...5....12 1975-76...2....15 1974-75...0....27 1973-74...0....22 1972-73...1....18. 1971-72...1....15 1970-71...4....12 1969-70...3....14 1968-69...0....22 1967-68...4....13 1966-67...1....16 1965-66...1....19 1964-65...3....16 1963-64...0....22 1962-63...1....13 1961-62...0....24 1960-61...2....19 1959-60...0....23 1958-59...0....22 1957-58...2....10 1956-57...1....12 1955-56...1....18 1954-55...1....17 1953-54...0....21 1952-53...0....29. 1951-52...0....20 1950-51...0....20 1949-50...0....22 1948-49...0....22. 1947-48...2....18. ...................................................................... 1942-43...2......8. 1935-36...4....16 1934-35...5....16 1933-34...6......8. 1917-18...12......2. I can’t believe the crappy 2018-19 winter had some of the lowest maxes of the past couple decades 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: I can’t believe the crappy 2018-19 winter had some of the lowest maxes of the past couple decades the first six winters I was alive for did not have a max in the teens...a max of 15 is pretty cold...more than a few snowy winters had no days with a max in the teens... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Not sure we make it Tuesday with a midnight high in the 20s likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 we entered a snow blitz pattern 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 hours ago, uncle W said: winters coldest max and total days max below 20...the last two winters had a low max of 25... winter....coldest max and number of times max temps were below 20... 2020-21...0....25 2019-20...0....25 2018-19...2....14 2017-18...5....13 2016-17...0....23 2015-16...1....15 2014-15...1....19 2013-14...3....17 2012-13...0....20 2011-12...0....27. 2010-11...0....23. 2009-10...0....20 2008-09...1....16 2007-08...0....20 2006-07...1....18 2005-06...0....24 2004-05...2....18 2003-04...4....15 2002-03...1....15 2001-02...0....31 2000-01...0....25 1999-00...1....19 1998-99...0....25. 1997-98...0....29. 1996-97...1....17 1995-96...3....17 1994-95...0....20 1993-94...5....10 1992-93...0....27 1991-92...0....23 1990-91...0....20 1989-90...1....18 1988-89...0....20. 1987-88...1....17 1986-87...1....19 1985-86...0....22 1984-85...1......9 1983-84...3....13 1982-83...0....21 1981-82...6....15 1980-81...3....14 1979-80...0....21 1978-79...6....13 1977-78...0....21 1976-77...5....12 1975-76...2....15 1974-75...0....27 1973-74...0....22 1972-73...1....18. 1971-72...1....15 1970-71...4....12 1969-70...3....14 1968-69...0....22 1967-68...4....13 1966-67...1....16 1965-66...1....19 1964-65...3....16 1963-64...0....22 1962-63...1....13 1961-62...0....24 1960-61...2....19 1959-60...0....23 1958-59...0....22 1957-58...2....10 1956-57...1....12 1955-56...1....18 1954-55...1....17 1953-54...0....21 1952-53...0....29. 1951-52...0....20 1950-51...0....20 1949-50...0....22 1948-49...0....22. 1947-48...2....18. ...................................................................... 1942-43...2......8. 1935-36...4....16 1934-35...5....16 1933-34...6......8. 1917-18...12......2. Uncle is the 1917/18 daily max of 2 degrees the closest NYC has come to a Max of 0 or below since 1869? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 The 0z op GFS shows why it can be so frustrating to get excited about a favorable looking "pattern." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, eduggs said: The 0z op GFS shows why it can be so frustrating to get excited about a favorable looking "pattern." That Miller A bomb ruins it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 19 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 0z op GFS shows why it can be so frustrating to get excited about a favorable looking "pattern." Watch ensembles not OP runs. OP runs beyond 3 days are essentially useless in this pattern. Ideally the miller A trends west & hits us then becomes a 50/50 for the following shortwave that turns into a Miller B. Additionally the Miller A could miss us but still act as a 50/50 regardless and we still get our Miller B storm right after. This is probably the more likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Nibor said: That Miller A bomb ruins it. models won't start to figure this out for a few more days so expect each run to be different for a few days at least......... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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