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On the 18z GFS, there is a little piece of energy that escapes the stagnant cutoff off Baja CA and slowly slides east and is near the TX panhandle on day 3. This shortwave and little packet of vorticity makes it just far enough east to be on the downstream side of an approaching shortwave in the northern stream, allowing it to phase and help initiate a negative tilt to the trof.

It's a pretty spectacular progression. But it also seems like if this piece of energy is late or something else is off slightly, the trof is likely to end up too far SE. This was a fun run though!

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55 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

January 2015 bust and 2/25/99 were two I clearly remember...both obviously much better evens for SNE.  Early Jan 2017 (I think0 we had one which tracked basically from the Bahamas due north which most, including me poo pooed it 3-4 days out since rarely do systems originating in that spot ever impact us.

I remember we recently had a tropical system that went from Bermuda to SNE...weird tracks lately

 

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It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL:

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1641686400-1642204800-1643068800-10-1.thumb.gif.67d9cf20e11f461d877cc90bbf936ce4.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1641686400-1642204800-1642982400-10-1.thumb.gif.8dc23cb050fdaf231d2cc729e0339ba0.gif

This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why:

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-2766400.thumb.png.e022365678cf628e2712d4d3089b4e14.png

Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. 

The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms.

There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past.

Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table.

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The next 8 days are averaging 27degs.(21/32) or -6>>>-8 nowadays.

Month to date is  36.0[+1.4].       Should be  31.5[-2.5] by the 17th.

Reached 35 yesterday.

Today:  39-42, wind w. and breezy, cloudy, rain by 3pm, 22 by tomorrow AM.

EURO has the Snow next Sunday.     GFS has the cold, but is zippo till about the 20th.

1641686400-rqeGRbIs4dQ.png

32*(80%RH) here at 6am.{was 30 overnite}      34* at 7am.

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No thread from myself on Sunday the 16th potential event. I don't think the 00z/9 EC op very close to the coast is the most probable outcome but respecting that this might yet be only I84, holding off.  GGEM continues steady for a snow event.  

Will reevaluate for a thread at 8PM today or 6AM Monday.

Looks like a nice winter pattern for the rest of January to possibly hold onto snow cover wherever its more than 3 inches deep this morning. 

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48 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Going to need to keep an eye on next weekend. Probably best to just keep paying attention from here on out TBH. 

eps_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_180.thumb.png.ca3fc44598f6fec19fab094ee53975fb.png

Yeah, looks like a very active pattern on the EPS. This is one of the most dramatic December to January Pacific reversals that we have ever seen. The models are looking very Nino-like after one of the most extreme La Niña Decembers on record.

Recent SOI drop

9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43
8 Jan 2022 1008.45 1008.65 -22.65 9.56 9.77
7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97

E14EE528-535F-400B-BD37-F7E65BD9E101.thumb.png.550e5cb950fc2c24c94409d935153149.png

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, looks like a very active pattern on the EPS. This is one of the most dramatic December to January Pacific reversals that we have ever seen. The models are looking very Nino-like after one of the most extreme La Niña Decembers on record.

Recent SOI drop

9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43
8 Jan 2022 1008.45 1008.65 -22.65 9.56 9.77
7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97

E14EE528-535F-400B-BD37-F7E65BD9E101.thumb.png.550e5cb950fc2c24c94409d935153149.png

 

 

 

 

Yeah, potentially the most dramatic. Looks like that translated to the most negative PNA on record in December. Impressive stuff going on this year. 

 

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16 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, potentially the most dramatic. Looks like that translated to the most negative PNA on record in December. Impressive stuff going on this year. 

It will be interesting to see how long we can keep the MJO away from the Maritime Continent after the recent SST cooling in that region.

24A937A9-7502-4471-80A8-31392149E7E8.png.37f2cbc79ca8c0b8feee913556c81bcc.png

5AF563B1-B4C0-467D-A3BD-627D22FFDBF3.png.6e9c3e3e9a110f100cbd6fdf266377ef.png

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy and milder today. Some light rain is possible, with some freezing rain occurring north and west of New York City and Newark. High temperatures will likely reach upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 40°

Newark: 41°

Philadelphia: 44°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.5°; 15-Year: 40.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 40.0°; 15-Year: 41.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.4°; 15-Year: 42.3°

Arctic air will begin moving toward the region tomorrow. Tuesday will be the coldest day this winter so far.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see how long we can keep the MJO away from the Maritime Continent after the recent SST cooling in that region.

24A937A9-7502-4471-80A8-31392149E7E8.png.37f2cbc79ca8c0b8feee913556c81bcc.png

5AF563B1-B4C0-467D-A3BD-627D22FFDBF3.png.6e9c3e3e9a110f100cbd6fdf266377ef.png

 

The models are still insistent on IO convection firing at the end of the month. Guess we’ll have to wait and see if forcing really does move there or not…..

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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The models are still insistent on IO convection firing at the end of the month. Guess we’ll have to wait and see if forcing really does move there or not…..

I am very sorry for your loss. Yeah, the long range models have been pretty insistent in the IO convection firing near the warm pool south of India by February. MJO phases 2 and 3 can be good for us during a La Niña in February. But convection shifting closer to phase 4 would allow the +PNA ridge to pull back close to the Aleutians. So it will be interesting to see what the models come up with as we get closer to February.

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see how long we can keep the MJO away from the Maritime Continent after the recent SST cooling in that region.

24A937A9-7502-4471-80A8-31392149E7E8.png.37f2cbc79ca8c0b8feee913556c81bcc.png

5AF563B1-B4C0-467D-A3BD-627D22FFDBF3.png.6e9c3e3e9a110f100cbd6fdf266377ef.png

 

Yeah, it's an interesting situation. I'm not really sure what happens beyond this point. It's going to be very interesting to monitor moving forward. You would think it would circle back there at some point just going by past events. However, does the current climate care about past events? So it's interesting to think about. 

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14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

Thank you to you and everyone else. It was my Aunt, cancer, she had been fighting it for the last 17+ years, she first got diagnosed back in 2004, she finally lost her battle. At least she’s at peace now. Just an ugly, horrible disease. My hope is that one day they find a cure….

My condolences. She fought long and hard

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, looks like a very active pattern on the EPS. This is one of the most dramatic December to January Pacific reversals that we have ever seen. The models are looking very Nino-like after one of the most extreme La Niña Decembers on record.

Recent SOI drop

9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43
8 Jan 2022 1008.45 1008.65 -22.65 9.56 9.77
7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97

E14EE528-535F-400B-BD37-F7E65BD9E101.thumb.png.550e5cb950fc2c24c94409d935153149.png

 

 

 

 

Like a 14/15 flip 

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