Allsnow Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Snowiest eps run of the season. Chances every few days after the 13th 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I was at a funeral yesterday when it was snowing that’s why I wasn’t posting during the storm. But thanks for asking. Troll I’m sorry to read this. You have my fullest condolences. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 12/7/2021 at 3:00 PM, Eduardo said: I'd love to see it, but I'm skeptical. You'd also have to do something about that pesky -PNA before a -EPO can lean on the SE ridge too. You'd think that the pool of anomalously cold SST near western S. America would have to serve us well at some point though, even if the NPAC looks like (not-so) hot garbage. Can someone comment on whether this has something to do with our sudden burst of cautious optimism? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 17 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I was at a funeral yesterday when it was snowing that’s why I wasn’t posting during the storm. But thanks for asking. Troll Ah I'm sorry man. Hope you're doing alright! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Sorry for your loss, @snowman19. Thoughts and prayers. I do think rna comes back for February 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Some freezing rain is possible tomorrow before temperatures become briefly milder. An even stronger cold shot is likely early next week with temperatures remaining near or below 20° throughout the day on Tuesday. Even Washington, DC's record-smashing 1,070 day streak without a temperature in the teens could come to an end. The subtropical jet could begin to become more active near mid-month. That could create additional opportunities for storminess. January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -22.65 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.768. MJO information was not available. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.0° (1.7° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 hours ago, eduggs said: Looking at operational run snow maps out past day 7 is asking for disappointment... past day 10 is masochistic. Yes, obviously. I don't trust operationals(especially GFS) beyond 72 hours. I just posted it for shits and giggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Currently clear skies, snowpack and lite winds. Temperature down 7 degrees from the high, falling fast at 25 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Look what the gfs just did with the ocean storm lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Kuchera is even more fun to look at for the GFS storm. Some eye candy. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Look what the gfs just did with the ocean storm lol Another sharp cutoff this time from west to east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Another little storm next weekend on gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 In wake of polar trough, northern stream upper flow will dominate mid to late week with E US trough amplifying in response to a series of shortwaves moving through the flow. The shortwave energy of note appears to be NE PAC origin, diving towards the SE US coast for midweek. General agreement with this energy being the catalyst for northern and southern stream phasing Thu/Fri with development of closed low upper low and strong low pressure off the SE US coast. At this time, model consensus is that that this phasing will take place too far east in a progressive flow, keeping developing low pressure well east of the region. Since this is still 5-6 days out, with these interactions inherently tough for models to resolve, something that bears watching through the week for development and track closer to the coast. Otherwise, locally just a weak and dry frontal passage on Thursday in response to digging and eastward translating northern stream trough. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Look what the gfs just did with the ocean storm lol Yeah I would watch that system closely...we've seen plenty of cases of systems of that nature that look like non factors and then become hits. Probably better chance for E LI and SNE though 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 another bomb cyclone in this pattern or lots of fantasy?...interesting weeks ahead... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, uncle W said: another bomb cyclone in this pattern or lots of fantasy?...interesting weeks ahead... High probability with the MJO going into 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah I would watch that system closely...we've seen plenty of cases of systems of that nature that look like non factors and then become hits. Probably better chance for E LI and SNE though Tough time with wave interference ... Plus, Euro tends to over amp corrections relaying logistically from D5's to 7 so a little leery from that mechanism too. Earlier today the EPS/GEFs were vague albeit still observably interested in D8-10, but we've also been discussing that range as negotiable ... There's plenty of room for amplitude with the clipper prior to. Also, hmm may be a 3 to 5 day periodicity an "R-wave storm" event mid month... Last time this happened was 2015 ... 2013 back toward the Lakes... They usually come with distinct re-enforcing events, in total taking two or three weeks to exhaust before rollout - just wondering. Other notable years were 1995-1996 and 1977-1978 ... ( not as analogs, but for occurrence). Locales can amass > 50% of a seasonal quota that way. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah I would watch that system closely...we've seen plenty of cases of systems of that nature that look like non factors and then become hits. Probably better chance for E LI and SNE though Yes def worth keeping an eye on. Ensembles are trending towards something too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah I would watch that system closely...we've seen plenty of cases of systems of that nature that look like non factors and then become hits. Probably better chance for E LI and SNE though we had a few of these in 2004-05 do you remember any that backed in all the way and delivered significant snow here? In my memory the most we get is a few inches here I think there was one in Feb 2016 that gave 4-6 inches to eastern parts of the city that was probably the biggest one I remember 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Eduardo said: Ah I'm sorry man. Hope you're doing alright! 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Sorry for your loss, @snowman19. Thoughts and prayers. I do think rna comes back for February Thank you to you and everyone else. It was my Aunt, cancer, she had been fighting it for the last 17+ years, she first got diagnosed back in 2004, she finally lost her battle. At least she’s at peace now. Just an ugly, horrible disease. My hope is that one day they find a cure…. 8 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Some freezing rain is possible tomorrow before temperatures become briefly milder. An even stronger cold shot is likely early next week with temperatures remaining near or below 20° throughout the day on Tuesday. Even Washington, DC's record-smashing 1,070 day streak without a temperature in the teens could come to an end. The subtropical jet could begin to become more active near mid-month. That could create additional opportunities for storminess. January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -22.65 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.768. MJO information was not available. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.0° (1.7° below normal). Funny, 32 F used to be above normal for Jan in the 80s Most Jan averaged in the 20s back then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: that storm gets shoved so far west that its mixed precip on the east end lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Thank you to you and everyone else. It was my Aunt, cancer, she had been fighting it for the last 17+ years, she first got diagnosed back in 2004, she finally lost her battle. At least she’s at peace now. Just an ugly, horrible disease. My hope is that one day they find a cure…. I lost 2 aunts to cancer, you have my fullest sympathy....one had stomach cancer and the other had brain cancer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: that storm gets shoved so far west that its mixed precip on the east end lol This would be a big wind producer as modeled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: we had a few of these in 2004-05 do you remember any that backed in all the way and delivered significant snow here? In my memory the most we get is a few inches here I think there was one in Feb 2016 that gave 4-6 inches to eastern parts of the city that was probably the biggest one I remember. January 2015 bust and 2/25/99 were two I clearly remember...both obviously much better evens for SNE. Early Jan 2017 (I think0 we had one which tracked basically from the Bahamas due north which most, including me poo pooed it 3-4 days out since rarely do systems originating in that spot ever impact us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 20 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Thank you to you and everyone else. It was my Aunt, cancer, she had been fighting it for the last 17+ years, she first got diagnosed back in 2004, she finally lost her battle. At least she’s at peace now. Just an ugly, horrible disease. My hope is that one day they find a cure…. Good evening S19. Vincenza, my partner died in my arms, just short of our 45th anniversary. All we had, during the two year battle, was hope. I now cling to it alone and pray your final sentence comes true. Stay well and firm in your position/beliefs. As always … 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 56 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I remember a retrograding storm like that maybe 25 years ago. It brought warning snows throughout SNE and an inch or two back to NYC at the tail end. These rarely work out. The longshot potential has been signaled for a few days now, notably by this afternoon's UKMET. This GFS run further depicts the potential realization of that potential. If this threat has legs, it will add many additional days to our model watching. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Can we lock this in please Amen! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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