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On 12/7/2021 at 3:00 PM, Eduardo said:

I'd love to see it, but I'm skeptical.  You'd also have to do something about that pesky -PNA before a -EPO can lean on the SE ridge too.  You'd think that the pool of anomalously cold SST near western S. America would have to serve us well at some point though, even if the NPAC looks like (not-so) hot garbage.

Can someone comment on whether this has something to do with our sudden burst of cautious optimism?

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Some freezing rain is possible tomorrow before temperatures become briefly milder. An even stronger cold shot is likely early next week with temperatures remaining near or below 20° throughout the day on Tuesday. Even Washington, DC's record-smashing 1,070 day streak without a temperature in the teens could come to an end.

The subtropical jet could begin to become more active near mid-month. That could create additional opportunities for storminess.

January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was -22.65 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.768.

MJO information was not available.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.0° (1.7° below normal).

 

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In wake of polar trough, northern stream upper flow will dominate
mid to late week with E US trough amplifying in response to a series
of shortwaves moving through the flow. The shortwave energy of note
appears to be NE PAC origin, diving towards the SE US coast for
midweek. General agreement with this energy being the catalyst for
northern and southern stream phasing Thu/Fri with development of
closed low upper low and strong low pressure off the SE US coast. At
this time, model consensus is that that this phasing will take place
too far east in a progressive flow, keeping developing low pressure
well east of the region. Since this is still 5-6 days out, with
these interactions inherently tough for models to resolve, something
that bears watching through the week for development and track
closer to the coast. Otherwise, locally just a weak and dry frontal
passage on Thursday in response to digging and eastward translating
northern stream trough.
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8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah I would watch that system closely...we've seen plenty of cases of systems of that nature that look like non factors and then become hits.  Probably better chance for E LI and SNE though

Tough time with wave interference ...  

Plus, Euro tends to over amp corrections relaying logistically from D5's to 7 so a little leery from that mechanism too. 

Earlier today the EPS/GEFs were vague albeit still observably interested in D8-10, but we've also been discussing that range as negotiable ... There's plenty of room for amplitude with the clipper prior to.

Also, hmm may be a 3 to 5 day periodicity an "R-wave storm" event mid month... Last time this happened was 2015 ... 2013 back toward the Lakes...   They usually come with distinct re-enforcing events, in total taking two or three weeks to exhaust before rollout - just wondering.  Other notable years were 1995-1996 and 1977-1978 ...  ( not as analogs, but for occurrence).     Locales can amass > 50% of a seasonal quota that way. 

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11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah I would watch that system closely...we've seen plenty of cases of systems of that nature that look like non factors and then become hits.  Probably better chance for E LI and SNE though

Yes def worth keeping an eye on. Ensembles are trending towards something too.

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16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah I would watch that system closely...we've seen plenty of cases of systems of that nature that look like non factors and then become hits.  Probably better chance for E LI and SNE though

we had a few of these in 2004-05

do you remember any that backed in all the way and delivered significant snow here? In my memory the most we get is a few inches here

I think there was one in Feb 2016 that gave 4-6 inches to eastern parts of the city that was probably the biggest one I remember

 

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1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

Ah I'm sorry man.  Hope you're doing alright!

 

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Sorry for your loss, @snowman19. Thoughts and prayers. 
 

I do think rna comes back for February 

Thank you to you and everyone else. It was my Aunt, cancer, she had been fighting it for the last 17+ years, she first got diagnosed back in 2004, she finally lost her battle. At least she’s at peace now. Just an ugly, horrible disease. My hope is that one day they find a cure….

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59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some freezing rain is possible tomorrow before temperatures become briefly milder. An even stronger cold shot is likely early next week with temperatures remaining near or below 20° throughout the day on Tuesday. Even Washington, DC's record-smashing 1,070 day streak without a temperature in the teens could come to an end.

The subtropical jet could begin to become more active near mid-month. That could create additional opportunities for storminess.

January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was -22.65 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.768.

MJO information was not available.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.0° (1.7° below normal).

 

Funny, 32 F used to be above normal for Jan in the 80s

Most Jan averaged in the 20s back then

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Thank you to you and everyone else. It was my Aunt, cancer, she had been fighting it for the last 17+ years, she first got diagnosed back in 2004, she finally lost her battle. At least she’s at peace now. Just an ugly, horrible disease. My hope is that one day they find a cure….

I lost 2 aunts to cancer, you have my fullest sympathy....one had stomach cancer and the other had brain cancer

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19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we had a few of these in 2004-05

do you remember any that backed in all the way and delivered significant snow here? In my memory the most we get is a few inches here

I think there was one in Feb 2016 that gave 4-6 inches to eastern parts of the city that was probably the biggest one I remember.  

 

January 2015 bust and 2/25/99 were two I clearly remember...both obviously much better evens for SNE.  Early Jan 2017 (I think0 we had one which tracked basically from the Bahamas due north which most, including me poo pooed it 3-4 days out since rarely do systems originating in that spot ever impact us.

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20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Thank you to you and everyone else. It was my Aunt, cancer, she had been fighting it for the last 17+ years, she first got diagnosed back in 2004, she finally lost her battle. At least she’s at peace now. Just an ugly, horrible disease. My hope is that one day they find a cure….

Good evening S19. Vincenza, my partner died in my arms, just short of our 45th anniversary. All we had, during the two year battle, was hope. I now cling to it alone and pray your final sentence comes true. Stay well and firm in your position/beliefs. As always …

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56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24.png

I remember a retrograding storm like that maybe 25 years ago. It brought warning snows throughout SNE and an inch or two back to NYC at the tail end. These rarely work out. The longshot potential has been signaled for a few days now, notably by this afternoon's UKMET. This GFS run further depicts the potential realization of that potential.

If this threat has legs, it will add many additional days to our model watching.

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