LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Atlantic City is already approaching its snowiest January on record and it’s only the 8th of the month. This much snow in the past has occurred under El Niño and ENSO neutral patterns. So it goes to show the more Nino-like aspects we are seeing this month. Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall ENSO 1 1987 20.3 El Niño 2 2014 18.8 neutral 3 2022 17.2 La Niña 4 2016 16.7 Super El Niño 5 1961 15.9 neutral Maybe with ACC going forward we'll see more El Nino like patterns even outside El Ninos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Maybe with ACC going forward we'll see more El Nino like patterns even outside El Ninos? It will be interesting to see how long we can hold this pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see how long we can hold this pattern. Yeah I dont care if California and Washington and Oregon don't see a single drop of precipitation from now until the end of the season, they got theirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: How much did you get yesterday? Rutgers got 4.7 but reported a snow depth of 5 SD is reported in whole inches... 4.7 rounds up to 5. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Models all over the place after the Arctic shot though a general moderation period (4-5 days) is likely with somewhat AN temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 LOL GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: LOL GFS What's it showing? A blizzard or sunny and 60's? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: LOL GFS The trick is for the GFS to show these solutions and then lose them and then have them suddenly pop up again within a week as the STJ becomes more active. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, weathermedic said: What's it showing? A blizzard or sunny and 60's? Big snowstorm for Days 11-12. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 The First Blizzard of 2022 around January 20th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The First Blizzard of 2022 around January 20th lock it up! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The First Blizzard of 2022 around January 20th I like the Kutchera better. Plus a follow up clipper after to refresh the pack! CMC had a good looking storm too. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 39 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The First Blizzard of 2022 around January 20th that sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 36 minutes ago, wxman said: lock it up! Jan 20th has become our peak snowfall climo date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: The trick is for the GFS to show these solutions and then lose them and then have them suddenly pop up again within a week as the STJ becomes more active. thats usually the way it happens with our biggest snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I like the Kutchera better. Plus a follow up clipper after to refresh the pack! CMC had a good looking storm too. dont we usually get historic events like these just before a major pattern change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Kuchera is even more fun to look at for the GFS storm. Some eye candy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: dont we usually get historic events like these just before a major pattern change? Or a reshuffle like 03 and 96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 EURO did not have the monster but had a fairly decent miller b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: EURO did not have the monster but had a fairly decent miller b. General 3 to 6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 All globals - EC, GFS, UK, CMC - look interesting over the next 10 days. The UK actually wraps precipitation back into most of SNE and LI with the Thurs - Fri wave. But any impact from this in our region is probably very low likelihood. There should be a few threats to track thereafter, and possibly some slower, longer duration threats. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Looking at operational run snow maps out past day 7 is asking for disappointment... past day 10 is masochistic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 4 consec cycles of op EC producing spotty or greater coverage of 2" snowfall on LI. 2 consecutive GGEM runs of a winter storm for the northeast. I'm close to a thread centered on the 16th but need time to review ensembles. So either start it at 9P tonight or 730A Sunday, if the 00z cycle continues. Very broad ballpark wording (kitchen sink) that will permit honing in more likely solution with a solution from ice/rain to a snow event of varying unknown magnitude. That's a D8 risk so keeping this in mind. My feeling is we've already had a fair amount of speculation and I don't see it ebbing, yet. Later, Walt 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Individual storm details will come into focus on closer range, so I ignore snow maps this far out. What is exciting is seemingly a developing favorable overall pattern for nor easters given a more cooperative Pacific and Atlantic. Let's see if that holds with future runs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 32 minutes ago, wdrag said: 4 consec cycles of op EC producing spotty or greater coverage of 2" snowfall on LI. 2 consecutive GGEM runs of a winter storm for the northeast. I'm close to a thread centered on the 16th but need time to review ensembles. So either start it at 9P tonight or 730A Sunday, if the 00z cycle continues. Very broad ballpark wording (kitchen sink) that will permit honing in more likely solution with a solution from ice/rain to a snow event of varying unknown magnitude. That's a D8 risk so keeping this in mind. My feeling is we've already had a fair amount of speculation and I don't see it ebbing, yet. Later, Walt Agreed ... HA ... had no idea but apparently we've been parroting one another - as I've been pushing many of the same observations/ sentiments over in the NE forum... My general conflicts wrt the super synopsis centers on the apparent disconnect between the CPC EOFs, vs the graphical depictions of the EPS/GEFs blend, re the D7 - 15 time span. The EOFs don't look like the graphics ..particularly in the PNA. For confidence in issuing a thread - for me - would be better served if one agreed with the "look" of the other, for then establishing correction vectoring. The EOF telecon would be blase for amplitude; the graphics say look out for coalescing. In fact, I suspect the Euro/EPS are in neg interference ( also ..). 12z operational may merely be a step in "seeing" the potential. I've noted tendencies for the Euro op to "wash" it's D5+ with subtle amplitude. I'd be willing to hunch the clipper is being over done post Thurs, or it becomes dominant... but not both. I might thread for on Sunday - impetus, an early recognition for potential, but one I too am above the typical modeling confidence for that time range will result in tracking. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Everyone should get their sleep now because we will be tracking really soon 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, eduggs said: All globals - EC, GFS, UK, CMC - look interesting over the next 10 days. The UK actually wraps precipitation back into most of SNE and LI with the Thurs - Fri wave. But any impact from this in our region is probably very low likelihood. There should be a few threats to track thereafter, and possibly some slower, longer duration threats. The EPS is literally all over the map for next weekend, there is no clear trend on it at all to say the least lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Everyone should get their sleep now because we will be tracking really soon The ensembles look very nice after the 15th. Cold but not frigid which is good since you don't want cold/dry. We'll have a quiet period after tomorrow and then it should get very interesting for 2 weeks minimum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The EPS is literally all over the map for next weekend, there is no clear trend on it at all to say the least lol Funny how you show face now. Where were you two days ago when you were busting big time. Like a dog with its tail tucked between his legs… 4 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Just now, BlizzardNYC said: Funny how you show face now. Where were you two days ago when you were busting big time. Like a dog with its tail tucked between his legs… I was at a funeral yesterday when it was snowing that’s why I wasn’t posting during the storm. But thanks for asking. Troll 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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