Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,610
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Atlantic City is already approaching its snowiest January on record and it’s only the 8th of the month. This much snow in the past has occurred under El Niño and ENSO neutral patterns. So it goes to show the more Nino-like aspects we are seeing this month. 
 

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Snowfall 
ENSO
1 1987 20.3 El Niño 
2 2014 18.8 neutral 
3 2022 17.2 La Niña
4 2016 16.7 Super El Niño
5 1961 15.9 neutral 

Maybe with ACC going forward we'll see more El Nino like patterns even outside El Ninos?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All globals - EC, GFS, UK, CMC - look interesting over the next 10 days. The UK actually wraps precipitation back into most of SNE and LI with the Thurs - Fri wave. But any impact from this in our region is probably very low likelihood. There should be a few threats to track thereafter, and possibly some slower, longer duration threats.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 consec cycles of op EC producing spotty or greater coverage of 2" snowfall on LI.  2 consecutive GGEM runs of a winter storm for the northeast. 

I'm close to a thread centered on the 16th but need time to review ensembles.  So either start it at 9P tonight or 730A Sunday, if the 00z cycle continues. Very broad ballpark wording (kitchen sink) that will permit honing in more likely solution with a solution from ice/rain to a snow event of varying unknown magnitude.  That's a D8 risk so keeping this in mind.  My feeling is we've already had a fair amount of speculation and I don't see it ebbing, yet.  Later, Walt

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, wdrag said:

4 consec cycles of op EC producing spotty or greater coverage of 2" snowfall on LI.  2 consecutive GGEM runs of a winter storm for the northeast. 

I'm close to a thread centered on the 16th but need time to review ensembles.  So either start it at 9P tonight or 730A Sunday, if the 00z cycle continues. Very broad ballpark wording (kitchen sink) that will permit honing in more likely solution with a solution from ice/rain to a snow event of varying unknown magnitude.  That's a D8 risk so keeping this in mind.  My feeling is we've already had a fair amount of speculation and I don't see it ebbing, yet.  Later, Walt

Agreed ... HA ... had no idea but apparently we've been parroting one another - as I've been pushing many of the same observations/ sentiments over in the NE forum...

My general conflicts wrt the super synopsis centers on the apparent disconnect between the CPC EOFs, vs the graphical depictions of the EPS/GEFs blend, re the D7 - 15 time span.  The EOFs don't look like the graphics <_<   ..particularly in the PNA. For confidence in issuing a thread - for me - would be better served if one agreed with the "look" of the other, for then establishing correction vectoring.  The EOF telecon would be blase for amplitude; the graphics say look out for coalescing.  

In fact, I suspect the Euro/EPS are in neg interference ( also ..). 12z operational may merely be a step in "seeing" the potential.  I've noted tendencies for the Euro op to "wash" it's D5+ with subtle amplitude.  I'd be willing to hunch the clipper is being over done post Thurs, or it becomes dominant... but not both.  

I might thread for on Sunday - impetus, an early recognition for potential, but one I too am above the typical modeling confidence for that time range will result in tracking. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

All globals - EC, GFS, UK, CMC - look interesting over the next 10 days. The UK actually wraps precipitation back into most of SNE and LI with the Thurs - Fri wave. But any impact from this in our region is probably very low likelihood. There should be a few threats to track thereafter, and possibly some slower, longer duration threats.

The EPS is literally all over the map for next weekend, there is no clear trend on it at all to say the least lol

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Everyone should get their sleep now because we will be tracking really soon

The ensembles look very nice after the 15th. Cold but not frigid which is good since you don't want cold/dry. 

We'll have a quiet period after tomorrow and then it should get very interesting for 2 weeks minimum.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, BlizzardNYC said:

Funny how you show face now. Where were you two days ago when you were busting big time. Like a dog with its tail tucked between his legs…

I was at a funeral yesterday when it was snowing that’s why I wasn’t posting during the storm. But thanks for asking. Troll

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...