January 2022

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

It is brutal out. 23F with a howling wind.

Love it

As Mr G would say- a three dog night!

 

[LoboLeader1]

19* here as of 2AM. Temps depicted to be near 40 on Sunday with a cold rain. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 30degs.(25/34) or -3>>>-5 nowadays.     Highest T is 37 for next 16 days.

Reached 36 yesterday(midnite) and 34 during the day.

Today:  30-32, wind w., m. clear.

22*(57%RH) here at 6am.      30* at 2pm.

[ForestHillWx]

15 here. Cold morning. 

[wdrag]

Next snow's: Small chance a period of snow around Thursday the 13th. Bigger chance sometime between 15th-17th.  

Am pretty sure (60%) there will be snow sometime between the 15th-17th, even LI, but are amounts less than 2" or do we find ourselves with another decent 2+ event. Modeling has not been excited about anything the past couple of days, I think in part because of how Thursday resolves, especially with it's potential interference developing low pressure off New England. Just need to wait it out 

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Next snow's: Small chance a period of snow around Thursday the 13th. Bigger chance sometime between 15th-17th.  

Am pretty sure (60%) there will be snow sometime between the 15th-17th, even LI, but are amounts less than 2" or do we find ourselves with another decent 2+ event. Modeling has not been excited about anything the past couple of days, I think in part because of how Thursday resolves, especially with it's potential interference developing low pressure off New England. Just need to wait it out 

Very active pattern ahead 

[Juliancolton]

6F here currently, coldest morning of the season by some margin. A little fresh snowcover goes a long way. 

[wdrag]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very active pattern ahead 

Opportunities...which if any will produce more than an inch of snow or .02 ice? I do think the northeast USA should be happy with the +NAO -PNA producing what it has so far... not too shabby.  Indicies good for patterns but part of this is timing. 

 

[wdrag]

06z GEFS snowfall... definitely stepping up amounts next weekend. Small but noticeable.

[Rtd208]

Overnight low of 18 here.

Current temp 19

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and cold today. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 30°

Newark: 32°

Philadelphia: 32°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 40.1°; 15-Year: 41.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.5°; 15-Year: 42.3°

Some light rain and ice is possible tomorrow.  An Arctic shot lies ahead for early next week.

[bluewave]

Models will probably struggle more than usual with storm details beyond 3-5 days. We are currently getting a Nino-like SOI drop. So a shift from a split flow to a dominant STJ pattern. This type of jet stream shift can introduce plenty of long range model volatility. 
 

SOI

8 Jan 2022	1008.45	1008.65	-22.65	9.56	9.77
7 Jan 2022	1011.09	1008.10	-7.63	10.53	9.97

Current split flow pattern

 

Transition to more Nino-like dominant STJ pattern 

 

[Allsnow]

@bluewave when is the next storm threat? I’m bored already 

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave when is the next storm threat? I’m bored already 

Enjoy what you have.

Jan 15-25th will be the next stormy period. The Nino look to the pattern is intriguing to say the least. 

And if it lasts then Feb could be more interesting than expected too.

It does makes sense that the strong east based Nina is acting like a Nino.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Enjoy what you have.

Jan 15-25th will be the next stormy period. The Nino look to the pattern is intriguing to say the least. 

And if it lasts then Feb could be more interesting than expected too.

How much did you get yesterday? Rutgers got 4.7 but reported a snow depth of 5

[EasternLI]

I wouldn't rule out something day 8-9 yet. Eps are Miller B ish looking. Don't think anything is going to stick out much from longer range right now. Just need to pay attention. 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I wouldn't rule out something day 8-9 yet. Eps are Miller B ish looking. Don't think anything is going to stick out much from longer range right now. Just need to pay attention. 

I know they are the Teles, however they do show the PNA dropping as well as the NAO.

I know this combo failed in December, however I still think if the RNA was not record setting, with the Negative NAO we would have scored fairly often. Negative NAO PNA combo usually provides us with overrunning events.

 

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

How much did you get yesterday? Rutgers got 4.7 but reported a snow depth of 5

A little over 5 but probably just under that after compaction so 4.7 checks out.

[EasternLI]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I know they are the Teles, however they do show the PNA dropping as well as the NAO.

I know this combo failed in December, however I still think if the RNA was not record setting, with the Negative NAO we would have scored fairly often. Negative NAO PNA combo usually provides us with overrunning events.

 

This is a good example of why you can't just look at those numbers and try to draw too many conclusions. If you look at the big picture, this is a far far different situation shaping up. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

This is a good example of why you can't just look at those numbers and try to draw too many conclusions. If you look at the big picture, this is a far far different situation shaping up. 

Way different than what happened in December. 

No GOA trough

Beautiful PNA ridge 

Nice trough in the east 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

This is a good example of why you can't just look at those numbers and try to draw too many conclusions. If you look at the big picture, this is a far far different situation shaping up. 

Shifting the Aleutian ridge further east and expanding it north makes a huge difference. 

PNA looks neutral here which is good enough given -EPO and neutral to negative NAO/AO. 

It also helps we're in the coldest month of the year. We could score even in a marginal event. 

[bluewave]

Atlantic City is already approaching its snowiest January on record and it’s only the 8th of the month. This much snow in the past has occurred under El Niño and ENSO neutral patterns. So it goes to show the more Nino-like aspects we are seeing this month. 
 

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	ENSO
1	1987	20.3	El Niño
2	2014	18.8	neutral
3	2022	17.2	La Niña
4	2016	16.7	Super El Niño
5	1961	15.9	neutral

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Atlantic City is already approaching its snowiest January on record and it’s only the 8th of the month. This much snow in the past has occurred under El Niño and ENSO neutral patterns. So it goes to show the more Nino-like aspects we are seeing this month. 
 

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	ENSO
1	1987	20.3	El Niño
2	2014	18.8	neutral
3	2022	17.2	La Niña
4	2016	16.7	Super El Niño
5	1961	15.9	neutral

They are going to surpass number 1

[EasternLI]

Split flow look out west. Can the STJ come out to play? 

[qg_omega]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Atlantic City is already approaching its snowiest January on record and it’s only the 8th of the month. This much snow in the past has occurred under El Niño and ENSO neutral patterns. So it goes to show the more Nino-like aspects we are seeing this month. 
 

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	ENSO
1	1987	20.3	El Niño
2	2014	18.8	neutral
3	2022	17.2	La Niña
4	2016	16.7	Super El Niño
5	1961	15.9	neutral

Not sure that tells anything about enso given you have two ninos two neutral and now a Nina 

[Yanksfan]

1 minute ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I can’t stress enough this pattern we’re entering has powder keg potential. The GEFS and EPS are textbook for a HECS to occur. Of course just because a pattern is ripe doesn’t mean it will produce. In the end I will be shocked if we don’t have the pattern give us at least an area wide MECS before the month comes to a close.

 

 

 

 

[EasternLI]

This is from yesterday, but is another important factor to keep tabs on. It's an interesting aspect of what's going on. 

 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Not sure that tells anything about enso given you have two ninos two neutral and now a Nina 

It’s telling us that the pattern has features resembling an El Niño even though it’s a La Niña winter.

From the CPC:

Dynamical model 500-hPa height anomaly forecasts depict a shifted pattern than what has been observed during the early Boreal winter period, indicating at least a temporary departure from the canonical La Nina response.

 

 

 

[lee59]

The closer we get to Monday night Tuesday arctic blast, the NWS keeps lowering the temps. May not get out of the teens on Tuesday. Not warming up to fast this morning either.

[eduggs]

Thursday looks mildly interesting for a longshot event. Kind of a retrograding coastal scenario. Nice high amplitude trof but too far southeast for a change! I guess there's still time for that to evolve differently, but that seems unlikely based on ensembles.

That trof looks like it affects the followup trof, which looks like the better precipitation threat for next weekend. I like the amplitude and orientation of the jet through the next 10 days. Storms that develop also probably won't be speeding along as fast as the last one. Now we wait for a favorable buckle. I would be thrilled with a series of minor snow events while we look forward to a big one in a pattern where it is possible. We could also come up completely empty if nothing breaks right. There are no slam dunks for NYC snow lovers.