donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 The moderate-to-significant snowfall today was, in part, due to high snow-liquid ratios. Ratios included: New York City-NYC: 15:1 Islip: 17:1 Philadelphia: 17:1 Newark: 19:1 Bridgeport: 20:1 New York City-JFK: 20:1 New York City-LGA: 29:1 In the wake of today's snowfall, tomorrow will be mostly sunny, blustery and cold. The mercury will likely rise no higher than the lower or perhaps middle 30s. Some freezing rain is possible on Sunday. An even stronger cold shot is likely early next week. January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will likely be below normal. Arctic air could will likely reach the Middle Atlantic region early next week. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +8.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was not available today. On January 5 the MJO data was not available. The January 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.861 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.0° (1.7° below normal). 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The moderate-to-significant snowfall today was, in part, due to high snow-liquid ratios. Ratios included: New York City-NYC: 15:1 Islip: 17:1 Philadelphia: 17:1 Newark: 19:1 Bridgeport: 20:1 New York City-JFK: 20:1 New York City-LGA: 29:1 In the wake of today's snowfall, tomorrow will be mostly sunny, blustery and cold. The mercury will likely rise no higher than the lower or perhaps middle 30s. Some freezing rain is possible on Sunday. An even stronger cold shot is likely early next week. January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will likely be below normal. Arctic air could will likely reach the Middle Atlantic region early next week. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +8.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was not available today. On January 5 the MJO data was not available. The January 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.861 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.0° (1.7° below normal). Don do you remember the storm during the 03-04 winter when we had temps in the single digits and had ratios of 25:1 to 40:1 with LGA having an astounding 80:1 ratio? We had almost a foot of snow in that one. 11 inches at Far Rockaway if I remember correctly. Was that the one when we had heavy snow at sunrise and the color of the sunrise made the snow look pink as it came down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Below normal January in nyc? Nice!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Below normal January in nyc? Nice!! 20 inches of snow this month? another 10 inches in March? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don do you remember the storm during the 03-04 winter when we had temps in the single digits and had ratios of 25:1 to 40:1 with LGA having an astounding 80:1 ratio? We had almost a foot of snow in that one. 11 inches at Far Rockaway if I remember correctly. Was that the one when we had heavy snow at sunrise and the color of the sunrise made the snow look pink as it came down? Yes. I believe that was the storm with the pink hue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Yes. I believe that was the storm with the pink hue. You remembered! Do you have any pictures of that pink hue by any chance, Don? Jan 2004 I think? I wish I had taken pictures of it but I still remember it so vividly in my mind. We had a similar storm in Jan 2009....and in that occasion it was pink snow at sunset! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: You remembered! Do you have any pictures of that pink hue by any chance, Don? Jan 2004 I think? I wish I had taken pictures of it but I still remember it so vividly in my mind. We had a similar storm in Jan 2009....and in that occasion it was pink snow at sunset! It was a clipper...maybe 1/16/04....started 7-8pm, did not really get going though til close to midnight. We then cleared out too early the next day, got to like 18-19 vs the expected 14-15 and failed to go below 0 that night as a result. I think the low was either 0 or 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 LGA-Highest Snow-to-Liquid Ratios: Date Precip Snow Ratio Max Min 1/15/2004 0.02 4.6 230.0 20 4 12/24/1983 0.01 1.0 100.0 25 4 With 0.30" or more precipitation: Date Precip Snow Ratio Max Min 1/7/2022 0.33 9.7 29.4 36* 30* 12/26/2010 0.43 10.2 23.7 32 23 2/6/1978 0.56 12.8 22.9 27 20 3/9/1984 0.35 7.8 22.3 29 17 1/13/1982 0.31 6.8 21.9 23 14 2/3/1996 0.34 7.0 20.6 21 15 1/26/2015 0.30 6.0 20.0 30 22 *-Through 6 pm EST 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Next major snow events should take place during this period. The BN 850's last into Week 1 of February. SE Ridge seems to start kicking up a fuss in the southeast during Week 1 of February---but perhaps a good northeast snow cover will keep the lid on the pot. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: You remembered! Do you have any pictures of that pink hue by any chance, Don? Jan 2004 I think? I wish I had taken pictures of it but I still remember it so vividly in my mind. We had a similar storm in Jan 2009....and in that occasion it was pink snow at sunset! I have two pictures here, but camera resolution was nowhere near it is today, so the photos didn't fully capture the depth of the pinkish hue. https://wintercenter.homestead.com/photojan2004j.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, donsutherland1 said: I have two pictures here, but camera resolution was nowhere near it is today, so the photos didn't fully capture the depth of the pinkish hue. https://wintercenter.homestead.com/photojan2004j.html Thanks Don, do you also have pictures from the Jan 2009 pink sunset snowstorm? Also, I'm not sure of the exact date of this storm, based on your site it says 27-29 but based on the numbers Chris posted it happened from the 14-15th or were those two different storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It was a clipper...maybe 1/16/04....started 7-8pm, did not really get going though til close to midnight. We then cleared out too early the next day, got to like 18-19 vs the expected 14-15 and failed to go below 0 that night as a result. I think the low was either 0 or 1 Yea that was the pink snowstorm I was thinking of and we got a low of 1 on back to back nights I think? Were predicted to go below zero but it never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: LGA-Highest Snow-to-Liquid Ratios: Date Precip Snow Ratio Max Min 1/15/2004 0.02 4.6 230.0 20 4 12/24/1983 0.01 1.0 100.0 25 4 With 0.30" or more precipitation: Date Precip Snow Ratio Max Min 1/7/2022 0.33 9.7 29.4 36* 30* 12/26/2010 0.43 10.2 23.7 32 23 2/6/1978 0.56 12.8 22.9 27 20 3/9/1984 0.35 7.8 22.3 29 17 1/13/1982 0.31 6.8 21.9 23 14 2/3/1996 0.34 7.0 20.6 21 15 1/26/2015 0.30 6.0 20.0 30 22 *-Through 6 pm EST wow thats some ratio lol was 4.6 the total snowfall for the entire storm? I remember it to be somewhat higher than that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Next major snow events should take place during this period. The BN 850's last into Week 1 of February. SE Ridge seems to start kicking up a fuss in the southeast during Week 1 of February---but perhaps a good northeast snow cover will keep the lid on the pot. sort of like Feb 1994, we finally did get into a big thaw and temps in the 60s but that was after two snow storms in the same week and then got more snow in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow thats some ratio lol was 4.6 the total snowfall for the entire storm? I remember it to be somewhat higher than that.... No. The 2-day total was 6.8”. The 2-day ratio was 75.6:1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: You remembered! Do you have any pictures of that pink hue by any chance, Don? Jan 2004 I think? I wish I had taken pictures of it but I still remember it so vividly in my mind. We had a similar storm in Jan 2009....and in that occasion it was pink snow at sunset! My photos from January 2009 were not during sunset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow thats some ratio lol was 4.6 the total snowfall for the entire storm? I remember it to be somewhat higher than that.... While the ratios were very high across the area, it’s possible that some of that some of that ratio calculation was a result of ASOS error. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/96964b6457794d2196dff24d68d4688d Sometimes the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) can struggle to melt snow for liquid equivalent in heavier snowfall. This may have led to the 22:1 ratio, which is rare in this part of the country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: My photos from January 2009 were not during sunset. Don do you remember any other pink snow instances besides Jan 2004 and Jan 2009? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 Regarding next weekend: 12z/7 GEFS and more so the EPS are soft on the trough and so not much going on, whereas the GEPS is telling us be alert for an enewd moving low through our area. Outnumbered 2 to 1 No thread, yet. Part of this potential is related to how a southwestern USA trough lifts out and merges with the northern stream or does the northern stream (GEFS/EPS) leave that sw USA trough behind? Will look at it again tomorrow. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, wdrag said: Regarding next weekend: 12z/7 GEFS and more so the EPS are soft on the trough and so not much going on, whereas the GEPS is telling us be alert for an enewd moving low through our area. Outnumbered 2 to 1 No thread, yet. Part of this potential is related to how a southwestern USA trough lifts out and merges with the northern stream or does the northern stream (GEFS/EPS) leave that sw USA trough behind? Will look at it again tomorrow. is the GEPS a combo of the GEFS and EPS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don do you remember any other pink snow instances besides Jan 2004 and Jan 2009? Other than the January 2004 event, no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: is the GEPS a combo of the GEFS and EPS? No. Those are the Canadian ensembles. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 25 here currently, after a reaching high of 38 earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: is the GEPS a combo of the GEFS and EPS? No, it is the Canadian ensemble. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 some 10" or greater snowfalls in Central Park with less than 0.90" of LE... 1979....0.89".....12.7" Feb... 1964....0.88".....12.5" Jan... 1960....0.86".....15.2" Dec... 2009....0.74".....10.9" Dec... 1899....0.70".....16.0" Feb... 1916....0.59".....12.7" Dec... 1996....0.52".....10.7" Feb... 1905....0.51".....11.0" Jan... 1961....0.50"......9.9" Jan... 2014....0.48".....11.5" Jan... I don't have a list of 6" storms with a relable LE ...on Feb 8th 1974 NYC got 6.0" from 0.29" of LE... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 39 minutes ago, uncle W said: some 10" or greater snowfalls in Central Park with less than 0.90" of LE... 1979....0.89".....12.7" Feb... 1964....0.88".....12.5" Jan... 1960....0.86".....15.2" Dec... 2009....0.74".....10.9" Dec... 1899....0.70".....16.0" Feb... 1916....0.59".....12.7" Dec... 1996....0.52".....10.7" Feb... 1905....0.51".....11.0" Jan... 1961....0.50"......9.9" Jan... 2014....0.48".....11.5" Jan... I don't have a list of 6" storms with a relable LE ...on Feb 8th 1974 NYC got 6.0" from 0.29" of LE... So amazing we had a storm like that as late as 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Looking at 21 currently IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 25 degrees. Winds gusting over 30mph. Looks and feels like winter finally. Can't wait for spring lol. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 29 minutes ago, Rjay said: 25 degrees. Winds gusting over 30mph. Looks and feels like winter finally. Can't wait for spring lol. It is brutal out. 23F with a howling wind. Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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