rgwp96 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: since 2010 have there been any DJFM periods with only one 6" or greater nyc storm? I would guess 19-20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is the only snowstorm in the area during the first week of January with a 60° high temperature. We saw the first 12”+ daily snow at ACY following a 60° day. This has been a common theme for us in recent years with record warmth and heavy snows close together. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 7 Snow 2007-01-07 72 0.0 1950-01-07 66 0.0 1993-01-07 64 T 2000-01-07 63 0.0 1998-01-07 63 0.0 2012-01-07 62 0.0 1946-01-07 62 T 2008-01-07 61 T 1997-01-07 61 0.1 2022-01-07 60 8.4 2019-01-07 60 0.0 1966-01-07 60 T baroclinicity is our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This is the most dramatic December La Niña to January positive flip without a SSW. The SSW Januaries still maintained the La Niña background forcing state. This one is all by itself with the pronounced Nino-like forcing near the dateline and WWB pattern. Good to see ENSO becoming more meaningless as time goes on this is a positive side effect of CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: well we're not in a super nino so precedent says we get at least one more significant storm One more? This was a moderate event for the most part. I say we see one twice as big as this one later this month and then maybe 1 moderate and 1 big one in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: we had a second storm in february That was a big storm here on Long Island and let's not forget it created that horrible crane accident in the city. It was also a very snowy superbowl week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Was only 2.5" much bigger just east of Manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 hours ago, bluewave said: This may be the most extreme reversal of a La Niña pattern in December to a much more Nino-like one in January. The forcing near the Dateline and WWB would be impressive for a regular El Niño January. It will be interesting to see what type of pattern shows up in February. Glad to see ENSO becoming more meaningless as time goes on, maybe people will now stop using it as a crutch in their long range forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 hours ago, Rjay said: Almost This is a good reason for not giving out participation prizes. Either you win or you lose, "almost" is the same as losing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: much bigger just east of Manhattan yeah we got 8 inches of heavy wet slop here from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 The end of January is the transition time period (convection firing in the Indian Ocean) where there will likely be some kind of winter storm, be it snow, ice or a combination of the 2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This is the only snowstorm in the area during the first week of January with a 60° high temperature. We saw the first 12”+ daily snow at ACY following a 60° day. This has been a common theme for us in recent years with record warmth and heavy snows close together. I feel about 80 years old saying this, but I often look for that warm up, followed by a quick pattern-changing event on the frontal passage... followed by another storm in like 3 days.. to really begin winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 45 minutes ago, hooralph said: I feel about 80 years old saying this, but I often look for that warm up, followed by a quick pattern-changing event on the frontal passage... followed by another storm in like 3 days.. to really begin winter. This new pattern for us emerged in January 2005 . We had one of the warmest first two weeks of January on record. Followed by a record high of 66° on the 14th and a KU on the 22nd. Seasons since 1950 when at least one station from Newark to Eastern LI recorded 40”+ and the NYC DJF average temperature. 35°+ average temperature seasons bolded 20-21….36.1 17-18….36.2 16-17….39.3 15-16….41.0 14-15…31.4 13-14…32.9 12-13…36.8 10-11….32.8 09-10…33.8 08-09…34.2 05-06…37.3 04-05…35.4 03-04…32.4 02-03…31.2 00-01….33.5 95-96…32.2 93-94…31.2 86-87….34.8 77-78….30.8 68-69….32.9 66-67….34.1 63-64…33.2 60-61….31.7 57-58…33.2 55-56…32.8 Last winter it was our best December snowstorm and -AO in years with bookend 60° days. May 2020 tied for our latest trace of snow following one of our warmest winters. 17-18 featured 30” of snow in March on Long Island after Newark hit 80° in late February. We had the blizzard in February 2017 a day after the 60s. 15-16 went +13.3 in December followed by the 30” snowstorm in January and new #1 NYC snowstorm. Even before the super El Niño, we were getting occasional patterns like this. Nemo in February 2013 following the very warm first few months of winter. The 11-12 lack of winter after the record snowstorm in late October. The February 2006 NYC #2 snow following one our warmest Januaries on record. The late winter 2005 snowstorms following one of the warmest first 2 weeks of January on record. This is a sea level version of spring in the Rockies where snow and warmth have often occurred together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: This is the most dramatic December La Niña to January positive flip without a SSW. The SSW Januaries still maintained the La Niña background forcing state. This one is all by itself with the pronounced Nino-like forcing near the dateline and WWB pattern. The big test will be the tail end of this month and February….there are growing signs that the current pattern is going to flip in a big way as we enter February: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Id say the first big test for the last few days and upcoming 10 or so failed already… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Id say the first big test for the last few days and upcoming 10 or so failed already… The real fail was the cold and snowy late November and December forecasts, that was an epic bust. I didn’t know there was a test for January, but February sure is not looking too good as of right now and there is a lot to back that up and growing….. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The real fail was the cold and snowy late November and December forecasts, that was an epic bust. I didn’t know there was a test for January, but February sure is not looking too good as of right now and there is a lot to back that up and growing….. most went for a cold Dec and a warm Jan. Bust. So who knows what Feb will bring... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The real fail was the cold and snowy late November and December forecasts, that was an epic bust. I didn’t know there was a test for January, but February sure is not looking too good as of right now and there is a lot to back that up and growing….. Just stop 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Chances are the pattern flips mild at some stage but typically its delayed after models even show it and they are yet to do that. At this point you'd think 2/1 is the earliest we see any major shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 If we get one cold month I like it being Jan. Heart of winter, coldest climo, low sun angle. Maximum snow retention! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Chances are the pattern flips mild at some stage but typically its delayed after models even show it and they are yet to do that. At this point you'd think 2/1 is the earliest we see any major shift And we know how good March usually is in terms of snowfall in la Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The real fail was the cold and snowy late November and December forecasts, that was an epic bust. I didn’t know there was a test for January, but February sure is not looking too good as of right now and there is a lot to back that up and growing….. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, BxEngine said: For Rockland: November: 0 snow, December, way above average temps and 0.5 total snow! Absolutely superb cold and snowy forecast lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: For Rockland: November: 0 snow, December, way above average temps and 0.5 total snow! Absolutely superb cold and snowy forecast lol On 1/4/2022 at 2:33 PM, snowman19 said: The fact that the EPS is even further east and weaker than the op is a bad sign. I’m batting a 1,000, thought this would trend west. I guess that very fast, progressive flow will not be denied. Also think this last storm helped to push the baroclinic zone well off shore. I should have known better when last night’s Euro was basically a non event. The Euro may have its moments of being wrong, but I seriously doubt it’s completely out to lunch this close in, especially when the Ukie, RGEM and CMC are showing a very similar scenario. 3 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 GFS operational is cold AF from like day 8 on out to the end of the run. ECWMF Ens look similar out to day 10. Maybe next weekend is when we can get something in the pipeline. Not much rn except cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: GFS operational is cold AF from like day 8 on out to the end of the run. ECWMF Ens look similar out to day 10. Maybe next weekend is when we can get something in the pipeline. Not much rn except cold. sometimes a threat pops up in the day 3-5 time frame-especially if a vort comes out of Canada from a data sparse region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, Brian5671 said: sometimes a threat pops up in the day 3-5 time frame-especially if a vort comes out of Canada from a data sparse region. That is kind of what I am thinking. Cold and an amplified pattern should work out. Somethings going to happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: For Rockland: November: 0 snow, December, way above average temps and 0.5 total snow! Absolutely superb cold and snowy forecast lol I made no such forecast. So take it up with twitter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 On 12/25/2021 at 6:59 PM, EasternLI said: WAG but I'm digging the 8-10th period to maybe do something. Fingers crossed. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: If we get one cold month I like it being Jan. Heart of winter, coldest climo, low sun angle. Maximum snow retention! The cold shot early this week will probably be our coldest air since December 17. Even better that it’s happening in January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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