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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the only snowstorm in the area during the first week of January with a 60° high temperature. We saw the first 12”+ daily snow at ACY following a 60° day. This has been a common theme for us in recent years with record warmth and heavy snows close together. 
 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 7
Snow
  2007-01-07 72 0.0
  1950-01-07 66 0.0
  1993-01-07 64 T
  2000-01-07 63 0.0
  1998-01-07 63 0.0
  2012-01-07 62 0.0
  1946-01-07 62 T
  2008-01-07 61 T
  1997-01-07 61 0.1
  2022-01-07 60 8.4
  2019-01-07 60 0.0
  1966-01-07 60 T

 

 

baroclinicity is our friend

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is the most dramatic December La Niña to January positive flip without a SSW. The SSW Januaries still maintained the La Niña background forcing state. This one is all by itself with the pronounced Nino-like forcing near the dateline and WWB pattern. 

Good to see ENSO becoming more meaningless as time goes on this is a positive side effect of CC.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:


This may be the most extreme reversal of a La Niña pattern in December to a much more Nino-like one in January. The forcing near the Dateline and WWB would be impressive for a regular El Niño January. It will be interesting to see what type of pattern shows up in February. 

D78F7B91-9605-468E-9EB2-312BB9CF0F79.thumb.png.965c080fef3f5742958b004d34c0e313.png

568DE028-8A18-4229-92BD-86648AF4BE80.thumb.png.98e4e069d86a02a258120d9f466cfe86.png

 

Glad to see ENSO becoming more meaningless as time goes on, maybe people will now stop using it as a crutch in their long range forecasting.

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is the only snowstorm in the area during the first week of January with a 60° high temperature. We saw the first 12”+ daily snow at ACY following a 60° day. This has been a common theme for us in recent years with record warmth and heavy snows close together. 
 


 

I feel about 80 years old saying this, but I often look for that warm up, followed by a quick pattern-changing event on the frontal passage... followed by another storm in like 3 days.. to really begin winter.

 

 

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45 minutes ago, hooralph said:

I feel about 80 years old saying this, but I often look for that warm up, followed by a quick pattern-changing event on the frontal passage... followed by another storm in like 3 days.. to really begin winter.

 

 

This new pattern for us emerged in January 2005 . We had one of the warmest first two weeks of January on record. Followed by a record high of 66° on the 14th and a KU on the 22nd.

Seasons since 1950 when at least one station from Newark to Eastern LI recorded 40”+ and the NYC DJF average temperature. 35°+ average temperature seasons bolded

 

20-21….36.1

17-18….36.2

16-17….39.3

15-16….41.0

14-15…31.4

13-14…32.9

12-13…36.8

10-11….32.8

09-10…33.8

08-09…34.2

05-06…37.3

04-05…35.4

03-04…32.4

02-03…31.2

00-01….33.5

95-96…32.2

93-94…31.2

86-87….34.8

 

77-78….30.8

68-69….32.9

66-67….34.1

63-64…33.2

60-61….31.7

57-58…33.2

55-56…32.8


Last winter it was our best December snowstorm and -AO in years with bookend 60° days.  May 2020 tied for our latest trace of snow following one of our warmest winters. 17-18 featured 30” of snow in March on Long Island after Newark hit 80° in late February. We had the blizzard in February 2017 a day after the 60s. 15-16 went  +13.3 in December followed by the 30” snowstorm in January and new #1 NYC snowstorm. Even before the super El Niño, we were getting occasional patterns like this. Nemo in February 2013 following the very warm first few months of winter. The 11-12 lack of winter after the record snowstorm in late October. The February 2006 NYC #2 snow following one our warmest Januaries on record. The late winter 2005 snowstorms following one of the warmest first 2 weeks of January on record. This is a sea level version of spring in the Rockies where snow and warmth have often occurred together. 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is the most dramatic December La Niña to January positive flip without a SSW. The SSW Januaries still maintained the La Niña background forcing state. This one is all by itself with the pronounced Nino-like forcing near the dateline and WWB pattern. 

The big test will be the tail end of this month and February….there are growing signs that the current pattern is going to flip in a big way as we enter February: 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Id say the first big test for the last few days and upcoming 10 or so failed already…

The real fail was the cold and snowy late November and December forecasts, that was an epic bust. I didn’t know there was a test for January, but February sure is not looking too good as of right now and there is a lot to back that up and growing…..

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The real fail was the cold and snowy late November and December forecasts, that was an epic bust. I didn’t know there was a test for January, but February sure is not looking too good as of right now and there is a lot to back that up and growing…..

most went for a cold Dec and a warm Jan.  Bust.  So who knows what Feb will bring...

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8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The real fail was the cold and snowy late November and December forecasts, that was an epic bust. I didn’t know there was a test for January, but February sure is not looking too good as of right now and there is a lot to back that up and growing…..

Just stop

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Chances are the pattern flips mild at some stage but typically its delayed after models even show it and they are yet to do that.  At this point you'd think 2/1 is the earliest we see any major shift 

And we know how good March usually is in terms of snowfall in la Nina 

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12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The real fail was the cold and snowy late November and December forecasts, that was an epic bust. I didn’t know there was a test for January, but February sure is not looking too good as of right now and there is a lot to back that up and growing…..

 

EB230B22-EA77-4FE7-BD07-D505521FA722.gif

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

For Rockland: November: 0 snow, December, way above average temps and  0.5 total snow! Absolutely superb cold and snowy forecast lol

 

On 1/4/2022 at 2:33 PM, snowman19 said:

The fact that the EPS is even further east and weaker than the op is a bad sign. I’m batting a 1,000, thought this would trend west. I guess that very fast, progressive flow will not be denied. Also think this last storm helped to push the baroclinic zone well off shore. I should have known better when last night’s Euro was basically a non event. The Euro may have its moments of being wrong, but I seriously doubt it’s completely out to lunch this close in, especially when the Ukie, RGEM and CMC are showing a very similar scenario. 

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1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

GFS operational is cold AF from like day 8 on out to the end of the run.  ECWMF Ens look similar out to day 10.  Maybe next weekend is when we can get something in the pipeline.  Not much rn except cold.  

sometimes a threat pops up in the day 3-5 time frame-especially if a vort comes out of Canada from a data sparse region.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

If we get one cold month I like it being Jan.  Heart of winter, coldest climo, low sun angle.   Maximum snow retention!

The cold shot early this week will probably be our coldest air since December 17. Even better that it’s happening in January 

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