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2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The other thing that bothers me is the antithesis to Tom Brady is Eli Manning. Which means the antithesis to metsfan would be Snowman19 and this hurts my Giants fandom brain.

I dont think the antithesis to Tom Brady is Eli Manning.  They've both won multiple superbowls (and multiple superbowl MVPs) and they're both clutch.  The antithesis to Tom Brady should be someone like Matt Ryan, who hasn't won a single superbowl and isn't clutch.

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont think the antithesis to Tom Brady is Eli Manning.  They've both won multiple superbowls (and multiple superbowl MVPs) and they're both clutch.  The antithesis to Tom Brady should be someone like Matt Ryan, who hasn't won a single superbowl and isn't clutch.

 

Thank you for trying to console me.

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No Jan 15-16  thread til either late today or Saturday morning at the earliest. Still looks promising to me for a northeast USA snow and ice event but it could easily turn to just a cold frontal passage if the northern stream dominates. I do like the multi ensemble suggestion of something out of the Ohio Valley redeveloping mid Atlantic coast with high pressure to our north and leftover snow cover keeping ground temps cooler than without.

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3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

No Jan 15-16  thread til either late today or Saturday morning at the earliest. Still looks promising to me for a northeast USA snow and ice event but it could easily turn to just a cold frontal passage if the northern stream dominates. I do like the multi ensemble suggestion of something out of the Ohio Valley redeveloping mid Atlantic coast with high pressure to our north and leftover snow cover keeping ground temps cooler than without.

One of top analogs for that period was Jan 2005 which had a big storm due to a similar setup. 

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The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(24/33), or -4>>>-6 nowadays.

Reached 40* here yesterday.

Today:  33-35, wind n. to nw. and breezy, Snow till Noon, 23 tomorrow AM.     No more snow for 7-10 days?

29*(99%RH) here at 6am{was 36 at Midnight and did not get to 32 till 3:30AM.}, Mod./Heavy Snow.     30* at 9am and sunny.     33* at 11am.      34* at 1pm.         30* at 6pm.

 

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Morning thoughts…

Heavy snow will end this morning and the sun will return during the afternoon from west to east. It will be cold. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 34°

Newark: 36°

Philadelphia: 35°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.7°; 15-Year: 40.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 40.2°; 15-Year: 41.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.6°; 15-Year: 42.5°

Tomorrow will be sunny and cold.  An Arctic shot lies ahead for early next week.

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2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Forget the teles, just have a look at this. Then, rest assured that the EPS is also headed in this direction. Because it is. 

1139165332_gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65(1).thumb.png.e5960e24e6ce2d148b9f8399c246f6f6.png

Thanks! Looks like it lost the blocking up top but we are in the frigid trough. 

I wonder is we can avoid the RNA altogether given that people are saying now that it's and east based la Nina.

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10 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Forget the teles, just have a look at this. Then, rest assured that the EPS is also headed in this direction. Because it is. 

1139165332_gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65(1).thumb.png.e5960e24e6ce2d148b9f8399c246f6f6.png


This may be the most extreme reversal of a La Niña pattern in December to a much more Nino-like one in January. The forcing near the Dateline and WWB would be impressive for a regular El Niño January. It will be interesting to see what type of pattern shows up in February. 

D78F7B91-9605-468E-9EB2-312BB9CF0F79.thumb.png.965c080fef3f5742958b004d34c0e313.png

568DE028-8A18-4229-92BD-86648AF4BE80.thumb.png.98e4e069d86a02a258120d9f466cfe86.png

 

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10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks! Looks like it lost the blocking up top but we are in the frigid trough. 

I wonder is we can avoid the RNA altogether given that people are saying now that it's and east based la Nina.

We take the Alaska ridging with the vortex in that position. The east based nature of the la Niña certainly keeps it interesting. It's going to be interesting to see how that plays into the rest of the season. If it were a more central based event, you could forget about it. 

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2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

We take the Alaska ridging with the vortex in that position. The east based nature of the la Niña certainly keeps it interesting. It's going to be interesting to see how that plays into the rest of the season. If it were a more central based event, you could forget about it. 

East based blocking helping our chances. 

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:


This may be the most extreme reversal of a La Niña pattern in December to a much more Nino-like one in January. The forcing near the Dateline and WWB would be impressive for a regular El Niño January. It will be interesting to see what type of pattern shows up in February. 

D78F7B91-9605-468E-9EB2-312BB9CF0F79.thumb.png.965c080fef3f5742958b004d34c0e313.png

568DE028-8A18-4229-92BD-86648AF4BE80.thumb.png.98e4e069d86a02a258120d9f466cfe86.png

 

Yeah, I agree. This year has been fascinating and it continues to be. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:


This may be the most extreme reversal of a La Niña pattern in December to a much more Nino-like one in January. The forcing near the Dateline and WWB would be impressive for a regular El Niño January. It will be interesting to see what type of pattern shows up in February. 

D78F7B91-9605-468E-9EB2-312BB9CF0F79.thumb.png.965c080fef3f5742958b004d34c0e313.png

568DE028-8A18-4229-92BD-86648AF4BE80.thumb.png.98e4e069d86a02a258120d9f466cfe86.png

 

January 97 and 99 both flipped pretty hard but then reverted right back in February 

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52 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

January 97 and 99 both flipped pretty hard but then reverted right back in February 

This is the most dramatic December La Niña to January positive flip without a SSW. The SSW Januaries still maintained the La Niña background forcing state. This one is all by itself with the pronounced Nino-like forcing near the dateline and WWB pattern. 

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This is the only snowstorm in the area during the first week of January with a 60° high temperature. We saw the first 12”+ daily snow at ACY following a 60° day. This has been a common theme for us in recent years with record warmth and heavy snows close together. 
 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 7
Snow
  2007-01-07 72 0.0
  1950-01-07 66 0.0
  1993-01-07 64 T
  2000-01-07 63 0.0
  1998-01-07 63 0.0
  2012-01-07 62 0.0
  1946-01-07 62 T
  2008-01-07 61 T
  1997-01-07 61 0.1
  2022-01-07 60 8.4
  2019-01-07 60 0.0
  1966-01-07 60 T

 

 

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