snowman19 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 14 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Most La Nina have warm Februaries?. They didn't last year and yes we had a La Nina last year too. Simple reason, we had a major SSW last year and the La Niña never coupled. Neither one of those happened this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Simple reason, we had a major SSW last year and the La Niña never coupled. Neither one of those happened this time The La Nina never coupled this year. The CFS Daily looks nice 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, leo2000 said: The La Nina never coupled this year. The CFS Daily looks nice It never coupled? ROTFLMAO!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Euro has single digits for the area Wednesday morning 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro has single digits for the area Wednesday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: If we have snow cover for this Arctic airmass it would definitely help maximize it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Gefs seems to like the idea of the Alaska Ridge regime later on in the month. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I wonder if the snowcover will make the storm on Sunday more icy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 23 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Gefs seems to like the idea of the Alaska Ridge regime later on in the month. That’s a thing of beauty for peak climo. Allot would have to go wrong for us not to score in that pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s a thing of beauty for peak climo. Allot would have to go wrong for us not to score in that pattern. Yeah, thats an impressive look on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 hours ago, EasternLI said: That would be a welcome development. I like how the Indonesian waters have cooled off a bit as well. That's helpful. Still some very warm water in the western Pacific. However it's a bit displaced to the east of Indonesia now. Which is a good thing. It'll be interesting to see how this all shakes out. Yeah, the forcing keeps following where the strongest marine heatwaves are located. This month the record SSTs shifted closer to Dateline. There has been some cooling north of Australia where the convection was stalled out in December. Now the forcing forecast for a large part of January is more Nino-like near the Dateline. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I must say, it sure seems that the EPS is now slowly stepping towards what the GEFS is advertising longer range. We'll see if this continues. Very interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the forcing keeps following where the strongest marine heatwaves are located. This month the record SSTs shifted closer to Dateline. There has been some cooling north of Australia where the convection was stalled out in December. Now the forcing forecast for a large part of January is more Nino-like near the Dateline. I've been intrigued by this westerly wind anomaly planted near the dateline on the EPS. I wasn't sure what to make of it at first when it showed up. Now I'm wondering if it has something to do with the east based nature of the la Niña. Like you had mentioned earlier. Sure seems like that could possibly be the case. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The Jan ‘05 storm was a good one. I was in Albany at the time. I think we had multiple storms that month. Snowball fights in the bars. Rather epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 A fast moving storm will bring snow to the region late tonight into tomorrow. This storm will likely develop a little too far offshore and too late to deliver a significant snowfall to most of the region. However, there could be a period of heavy snow on Long Island and especially across eastern New England. The absence of blocking will inhibit prospects for a long-duration snowfall. Snowfall estimates: Baltimore: 1"-3" Boston: 4"-8" Bridgeport: 2"-4" Islip: 3"-6" New York City: 2"-4" Newark: 2"-4" Philadelphia: 2"-4" Poughkeepsie: 1"-3" Providence: 4"-8" Washington, DC: 1"-3" January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the overall tendency toward cooler weather is underway. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly could be near or even somewhat below normal. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada through this week. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. Arctic air could briefly reach the Middle Atlantic region during the second week of January. The colder pattern that has discontinuously developed just after the New Year could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +8.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was not available today. On January 4 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.861 (RMM). The January 3-adjusted amplitude was 2.127 (RMM). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 18z gfs is very cold and active going forward 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 6 hours ago, leo2000 said: Most La Nina have warm Februaries?. They didn't last year and yes we had a La Nina last year too. second year la ninas like this one are usually less productive than first year la ninas, especially ones that come after el ninos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The #1 analog for mid-January on the CPC site is the January 2005 weak El Niño. That pattern produced the late January KU snow event. So it will be interesting to see if we can eventually put something that big together. It was okay but I'd rather have a Jan 2016 repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 6 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: I wonder if the snowcover will make the storm on Sunday more icy. This shares my concern. I'm pretty sure we ice to about I95 Sunday morning-midday with sleet nw of I84... possibly ends as a period of snow sometime later Sunday near I84. My guess because of new snow cover, our grounds temps will be easily subfreezing and that puts us in line for a widespread light southerly wind icing event. The only good news, is that midday insolation will assist melting of ice on pavements. Still, I could see up to 0.2" of glaze on terrain near and above 1000 feet. Right now I'll wait til tomorrow morning to thread, if it at that time looks even more likely to occur to I95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, wdrag said: This shares my concern. I'm pretty sure we ice to about I95 Sunday morning-midday with sleet nw of I84... possibly ends as a period of snow sometime later Sunday near I84. My guess because of new snow cover, our grounds temps will be easily subfreezing and that puts us in line for a widespread light southerly wind icing event. The only good news, is that midday insolation will assist melting of ice on pavements. Still, I could see up to 0.2" of glaze on terrain near and above 1000 feet. Right now I'll wait til tomorrow morning to thread, if it at that time looks even more likely to occur to I95. I was just thinking about yesterday’s event and deep snow cover in south Jersey. Had that not been there temps may not have cut it city southeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: 18z gfs is very cold and active going forward Classic Another week at #1 for you my friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, Rjay said: Classic Another week at #1 for you my friend. He's the GOAT thats for sure. Why doesn't someone make a GOAT tag for him? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 22 minutes ago, Rjay said: Classic Another week at #1 for you my friend. I dunno man, calling for a historic torch for the time period that we had a pretty significant travel disruption due to icing, a small storm, and potential for real cold temps early next week might be enough to surpass him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, BxEngine said: I dunno man, calling for a historic torch for the time period that we had a pretty significant travel disruption due to icing, a small storm, and potential for real cold temps early next week might be enough to surpass him. You make a fair point but the classic metsfan, "the gfs is cold and stormy in the long range" post that I've been reading for a decade is just...special. There's literally no one more dedicated to these forums than him. This will really upset Forky but metsfan is the Tom Brady of weenies. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 30 minutes ago, Rjay said: You make a fair point but the classic metsfan, "the gfs is cold and stormy in the long range" post that I've been reading for a decade is just...special. There's literally no one more dedicated to these forums than him. This will really upset Forky but metsfan is the Tom Brady of weenies. Id say hes more like the 90s buffalo bills, but i see your point lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 35 minutes ago, Rjay said: You make a fair point but the classic metsfan, "the gfs is cold and stormy in the long range" post that I've been reading for a decade is just...special. There's literally no one more dedicated to these forums than him. This will really upset Forky but metsfan is the Tom Brady of weenies. Does Forky even know who Tom Brady is? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 37 minutes ago, Rjay said: You make a fair point but the classic metsfan, "the gfs is cold and stormy in the long range" post that I've been reading for a decade is just...special. There's literally no one more dedicated to these forums than him. This will really upset Forky but metsfan is the Tom Brady of weenies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 30 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Id say hes more like the 90s buffalo bills, but i see your point lol The analogy will be complete if he honks on a historic superstorm for a week and it ends up going "wide right" at the very last possible moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Dont let the upstate crew read this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 hours ago, Rjay said: You make a fair point but the classic metsfan, "the gfs is cold and stormy in the long range" post that I've been reading for a decade is just...special. There's literally no one more dedicated to these forums than him. This will really upset Forky but metsfan is the Tom Brady of weenies. The other thing that bothers me is the antithesis to Tom Brady is Eli Manning. Which means the antithesis to metsfan would be Snowman19 and that hurts my Giants fandom brain. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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