snowman19 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: If that happens, so be it. I have no control over the weather. Not sure how he's so confident about the MJO though. When NOAA is even unsure and there is no clarity in modeling yet. Maybe he's right. Maybe he isn't. We're still waiting for that epic pattern composite he made to show up. My concern would be this if we really lose the PAC side, showing a ++NAO for the remainder of winter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: My concern would be this if we really lose the PAC side, showing a ++NAO for the remainder of winter: For me, seasonal models are automatically tossed. Regardless of what they show. How was the epic pattern it had advertised for winter a couple of years ago? Could be right, but I don't trust those. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs barking for possible huge storm mid January. Euro shows it and cmc Pattern supports it We shall see Looks like our Arctic shot early next weeks sets up an Atlantic wave breaking event. So we get some south based Atlantic blocking. This is followed by the well advertised +PNA spike. That will be another period to watch for snow in mid-January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like our Arctic shot early next weeks sets up an Atlantic wave breaking event. So we get some south based Atlantic blocking. This is followed by the well advertised +PNA spike. That will be another period to watch for snow in mid-January. I have a feeling we might get one huge snowstorm and that's it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I have a feeling we might get one huge snowstorm and that's it Hopefully, we can keep this pattern going for as many snow chances as possible. Euro has the -EPO/+PNA /south based Atlantic block continuing into the long range. Maybe the weeklies tomorrow will have some clues for what comes even later in January. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I have a feeling we might get one huge snowstorm and that's it As long as it’s a blizzard of ‘96 redux, I’ll be satisfied. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hopefully, we can keep this pattern going for as many snow chances as possible. Euro has the -EPO/+PNA /south based Atlantic block continuing into the long range. Maybe the weeklies tomorrow will have some clues for what comes even later in January. That's a juicy look, but it's too far out for me to get excited. Ordinarily, I'd also say that the background ENSO state doesn't support it but, as @forkyfork mentioned the other day, last February's snow blitz took place despite a seemingly-unfavorable ENSO state, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Mid month period looks great. Hoping it delivers. Towards the 20th, the EPS wants to pull the ridge back in the GOA. So the trough heads west. It's done this for a couple runs now. We'll see if this continues. Monster ridge up trough Alaska. Tropical convection is re-firing back around the warm pool around this time on the mean now a little bit more clearly. So something to just keep in mind. Seems it could be gaining a bit of traction for now. That's what I'm seeing on the EPS today for whatever it's worth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 39 minutes ago, Eduardo said: That's a juicy look, but it's too far out for me to get excited. Ordinarily, I'd also say that the background ENSO state doesn't support it but, as @forkyfork mentioned the other day, last February's snow blitz took place despite a seemingly-unfavorable ENSO state, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. The last several years have been famous for weather patterns that haven’t matched the ENSO background state. Competing marine heatwaves and MJO stalls have created some very wild patterns. The current very strong VP anomalies near the Dateline is much more El Niño-like. So it’s no surprise that the recent STJ pulse produced the record snows just to jour south like in an El Niño winter. The SE trough in the long range forecast would match with such strong forcing near the Dateline. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 It will turn colder tomorrow ahead of a snowfall on Friday. At present, it appears that the storm will develop a little too far offshore and too late to deliver a significant snowfall to the region. Initial snowfall estimates: Baltimore: 2"-4" Boston: 4"-8" Bridgeport: 2"-4" Islip: 2"-4" New York City: 2"-4" Newark: 2"-4" Philadelphia: 2"-4" Poughkeepsie: 1"-3" Providence: 3"-6" Washington, DC: 1"-3" January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the overall tendency toward cooler weather is underway. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly could be near or even somewhat below normal. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada through this week. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. Arctic air could briefly reach the Middle Atlantic region during the second week of January. The colder pattern that has discontinuously developed just after the New Year last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +8.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.343 today. On January 3 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.127 (RMM). The January 2-adjusted amplitude was 2.089 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Looks like a few arctic fronts and maybe a couple nickel dimers on the GFS long range. That would be different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Definitely looks interesting mid-month. Possibly an amplified pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 6 hours ago, EasternLI said: Seasonal forecasting is extremely difficult. There are just so many different factors in play. Not to mention, some factors are not fully understood. You can get a general idea based on mostly enso but there are usually curve balls. I enjoy reading the science on the topic and guessing. But ultimately that's all it is, a guess. Especially since the planet is warming. That's changing the equation further. cant use mostly enso because enso only represents about 20% of our weather. Though I agree that chaos dwarfs any signal and long range is fundamentally unpredictable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like our Arctic shot early next weeks sets up an Atlantic wave breaking event. So we get some south based Atlantic blocking. This is followed by the well advertised +PNA spike. That will be another period to watch for snow in mid-January. How much does this resemble what happened in January 1999? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: I have a feeling we might get one huge snowstorm and that's it I have a feeling we'll have a chance to get a big one in January and then again in March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I have a feeling we'll have a chance to get a big one in January and then again in March. 2017-2018 like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 mid/late month definitely has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 31 here as of 5AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Good morning everyone...just a note on threads. Will begin the OBS thread at 8 or 9P tonight. Am looking at threads for Sunday the 9th which is trending colder - ice and or snow along or just northwest of the I95 corridor westward (too warm Long Island I think but time to change), and then the following weekend (15-16) but absolutely nothing from me til Friday or Saturday on those. Am off line til at least 6PM. Have a great day! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Morning thoughts… Clouds will increase as the day wears on. It will be colder. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 39° Newark: 40° Philadelphia: 38° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.9°; 15-Year: 40.8° Newark: 30-Year: 40.3°; 15-Year: 41.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.6°; 15-Year: 42.5° A fast moving developing storm will bring a general 2”-4” snowfall from Philadelphia to New York City with locally higher amounts. Eastern New England and much of Long Island will likely see 3”-6”. Boston will likely pick up 4”-8”. Allentown will receive its first measurable snowfall of the season, which will be its 5th latest on record. The last later first measurable snowfall occurred during winter 2015-16 on January 12th. The overnight guidance is looking more robust. If the 12z and 18z guidance holds, amounts could be increased somewhat. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(23/34) or -4>>>-6 nowadays. Reached 47 here yesterday. Today: 40 down to 34, wind w to ne., up to 4" of Snow from Midnight to Noon. 37*(73%RH) here at 6am. 40* at 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Eps took a step back from the -PNA look in the long range on the 00z run. We'll see what future runs do. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Eps took a step back from the -PNA look in the long range on the 00z run. We'll see what future runs do. That's good news 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 20 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Eps took a step back from the -PNA look in the long range on the 00z run. We'll see what future runs do. Yeah, the La Niña just became one of the most east based events on record. So Nino 4 has warmed back closer to neutral in recent weeks. This allows the forcing to stall closer to the Dateline for a while. That’s the key to maintaining more of a Nino-like +PNA. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the La Niña just became one of the most east based events on record. So Nino 4 has warmed back closer to neutral in recent weeks. This allows the forcing to stall closer to the Dateline for a while. That’s the key to maintaining more of a Nino-like +PNA. That would be a welcome development. I like how the Indonesian waters have cooled off a bit as well. That's helpful. Still some very warm water in the western Pacific. However it's a bit displaced to the east of Indonesia now. Which is a good thing. It'll be interesting to see how this all shakes out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: That would be a welcome development. I like how the Indonesian waters have cooled off a bit as well. That's helpful. Still some very warm water in the western Pacific. However it's a bit displaced to the east of Indonesia now. Which is a good thing. It'll be interesting to see how this all shakes out. It looks like the cold could possibly hold into late January with the MJO stuck in phase 7 with -GLAAM. Will be interesting to see what happens the tail end of the month, like post 1/25: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Great developments. Opportunities for rest of Jan, we warm for February and La Nina Marches usually over perform. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: It looks like the cold could possibly hold into late January with the MJO stuck in phase 7 with -GLAAM. Will be interesting to see what happens the tail end of the month, like post 1/25: One thing is for sure, I'll take a guess it won't be like February 2017 or 2018 and thats a win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Looks like a true arctic blast could come in around Tuesday of next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: It looks like the cold could possibly hold into late January with the MJO stuck in phase 7 with -GLAAM. Will be interesting to see what happens the tail end of the month, like post 1/25: Most La Nina have warm Februaries?. They didn't last year and yes we had a La Nina last year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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