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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There’s light freezing rain in New Rochelle and multiple accidents. Both the northbound and southbound traffic on the Hutchinson River Parkway is at a standstill.

There was a 20 car pileup on I 287 and smaller piles up and closures on the Hutch, Cross County, Bronx River Pkwy, Deegan Expy. In hindsight that Winter Weather Advisory should of included NYC and southern Westchester.  They extended it after the damage already begun.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

New all-time December lowest monthly -PNA for the month at -2.56. So it’s no surprise that the December snowfall was so low around the area. The big rebound in recent days allowed record snows to our south. Plus our first accumulating snow potential of the season in few days. So this just goes to show how important getting a favorable Pacific is for snowfall from the mid-Atlantic to our area. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

2021   0.19  -0.31  -0.97  -1.05  -1.35   0.67   0.56   0.95   0.44   1.13   0.72  -2.56



B40E5779-49BD-495B-8F8A-74013060AC26.png.9433c7982ce75c86f621b8b9d412589d.png

1211BD81-5951-4535-9119-C4BEF21BE377.thumb.gif.8d7b5590bbb9a6f763053088b07b4ca5.gif

 

I wonder, with the NAO we had if the PNA was just a little less negative if we would have had average to above average snowfall for December.

I would roll the dice with another negative PNA NAO combo in February (say -1.5).

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Found this online for MJO phase 7 on Feb. Not sure if this is a good look temp wise but would imagine nothing would cut. Perhaps dry.

FebENMJOphase7gt1500mb.gif.e0183d921a9e21b71c772bbedda4d76d.gif

 

 

 

That one is for El Niño. This is the La Niña one. But we don't know what the MJO is going to do anyway yet.

nina_7_feb_ok.thumb.png.62ca5d3dc75ac220fbec753f788fc894.png

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14 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

It's a good look after day 10, but is hinting at some -PNA at the very end. Could be right, but it's just unclear at the moment IMO. We'll have to watch some future runs. 

I would take an RNA again if we get the negative NAO (and the PNA is not negative in record levels)

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1 hour ago, dWave said:

There was a 20 car pileup on I 287 and smaller piles up and closures on the Hutch, Cross County, Bronx River Pkwy, Deegan Expy. In hindsight that Winter Weather Advisory should of included NYC and southern Westchester.  They extended it after the damage already begun.

complete debacle in my area-no salt on roads, pileups just a disaster all around.

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1 hour ago, dWave said:

There was a 20 car pileup on I 287 and smaller piles up and closures on the Hutch, Cross County, Bronx River Pkwy, Deegan Expy. In hindsight that Winter Weather Advisory should of included NYC and southern Westchester.  They extended it after the damage already begun.

Unfortunately, there was a fatality in one of the accidents near where the Bronx River Parkway meets the Cross County Parkway.

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3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I would take an RNA again if we get the negative NAO (and the PNA is not negative in record levels)

I think it's going to come down to what the MJO wants to do, at least in part. I was flipping through the eps individuals vp200 and they were all over the place later on. Some in the IO, some back by the warm pool, others out in the Pacific. No idea which way this goes currently. 

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11 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

the LR isn't great, I mean looking at D10 ish.  I am not convinced there is a lot of skill in the models beyond that this season.  Heart of winter coming up and its meh looking.  

I completely disagree. There's a building western ridge that will retrograde further west over time. 

Next 10 day outlook. Friday system 1-3/2-4" followed by cold weekend, brief warm early next week followed by coldest air of the season then some more relaxation as the western ridge really builds. 

After that the stage is set for a very snowy period. Ensembles hinting at some Atlantic blocking as well. I think Jan 15-20 and possibly up till the 25th could be very good. 

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1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

It's a good look after day 10, but is hinting at some -PNA at the very end. Could be right, but it's just unclear at the moment IMO. We'll have to watch some future runs. 

The revert back to -PNA/RNA makes sense given the coupled Niña background state and severely negative PDO, you aren’t sustaining +PNA for very long. What Eric explains would basically fit canonical La Niña climo (in the absence of any SSW to shake things up) for late January and February: 

 

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30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The revert back to -PNA/RNA makes sense given the coupled Niña background state and severely negative PDO, you aren’t sustaining +PNA for very long. What Eric explains would basically fit canonical La Niña climo (in the absence of any SSW to shake things up) for late January and February: 

 

If that happens, so be it. I have no control over the weather. Not sure how he's so confident about the MJO though. When NOAA is even unsure and there is no clarity in modeling yet. Maybe he's right. Maybe he isn't. We're still waiting for that epic pattern composite he made to show up. 

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If that happens, so be it. I have no control over the weather. Not sure how he's so confident about the MJO though. When NOAA is even unsure and there is no clarity in modeling yet. Maybe he's right. Maybe he isn't. We're still waiting for that epic pattern composite he made to show up. 

He’s got a 50/50 chance, and I’ve become more convinced in my elder age that seasonal forecasting is that.


.
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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The revert back to -PNA/RNA makes sense given the coupled Niña background state and severely negative PDO, you aren’t sustaining +PNA for very long. What Eric explains would basically fit canonical La Niña climo (in the absence of any SSW to shake things up) for late January and February: 

 

A canonical La Nina would be a lot colder in December. 

However I do see -PNA conditions returning but the pattern shift may take slower than expected. 

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1 minute ago, North and West said:


He’s got a 50/50 chance, and I’ve become more convinced in my elder age that seasonal forecasting is that.


.

Seasonal forecasting is extremely difficult. There are just so many different factors in play. Not to mention, some factors are not fully understood. You can get a general idea based on mostly enso but there are usually curve balls. I enjoy reading the science on the topic and guessing. But ultimately that's all it is, a guess. Especially since the planet is warming. That's changing the equation further. 

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3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wonder, with the NAO we had if the PNA was just a little less negative if we would have had average to above average snowfall for December.

I would roll the dice with another negative PNA NAO combo in February (say -1.5).

Just avoiding a 0.0 or T was a big win in December. The Pacific was so hostile in December, that even a better Atlantic wouldn’t have helped out. When we got the Atlantic blocking in late December, everything was shearing out and hitting confluence over SE Canada. So as the record low -PNA rebounded this month, there were record snows to our south and the snow event for our region on Friday. Just a little +PNA ridging can go a long way especially at the tail end of a -AO pattern. 
 

 

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