BucksCO_PA Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 40 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I noticed Millville at 5 (with calm wind) at one point this morning. They ended up bottoming out at 4 degrees shortly after 7:00. At 3:00am it was 20 degrees, between 6:00-7:00 dropped from 15 to 5 degrees when the winds went calm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, Torch said: Explain please. climate change ice cover is much less now then it was in the mid 1980;s..as sherlock holmes would say it is quite elementary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHELEG Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, SHELEG said: With all that in mind it’s a great stretch to to say that last nights airmass would have produced single digits in NYC 25 years ago. as in 1997 no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 25 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said: They ended up bottoming out at 4 degrees shortly after 7:00. At 3:00am it was 20 degrees, between 6:00-7:00 dropped from 15 to 5 degrees when the winds went calm. Millville is MJX isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Millville is MJX isn't it? MIV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: MIV Thanks, I'm looking for MJX low temps since they're usually the lowest in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks, I'm looking for MJX low temps since they're usually the lowest in that region. Their obs look incomplete on the 2 sites I use. Maybe someone else can find it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 37 minutes ago, SHELEG said: 40 minutes ago, SHELEG said: With all that in mind it’s a great stretch to to say that last nights airmass would have produced single digits in NYC 25 years ago. as in 1997 no way. I agree in regards to the nyc urban heat island. It hasn’t changed much in comparison to other city’s to our south which have experienced much more growth. In fact the NYC heat island was fully functional as early as the early 1900s. It’s impossible to say what any given airmass would have been like 25 years ago though. This wasn’t a true arctic cold shot with strong CAA to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 57 minutes ago, nycwinter said: climate change ice cover is much less now then it was in the mid 1980;s..as sherlock holmes would say it is quite elementary... ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 hours ago, nycwinter said: well central park had no snow and even without snow with this air mass would have been in the single digits 25 years ago.. Yeah, no. -8° 850s with no pack and you expect single digits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 In addition to the first 60°+ day followed by a 12” snowfall day in ACY, the temperature drop tied the all-time January record for 42 hrs. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=ACY&hours=42&month=jan&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I agree in regards to the nyc urban heat island. It hasn’t changed much in comparison to other city’s to our south which have experienced much more growth. In fact the NYC heat island was fully functional as early as the early 1900s. It’s impossible to say what any given airmass would have been like 25 years ago though. This wasn’t a true arctic cold shot with strong CAA to begin with. The only real conclusions we can draw are that single digit and below zero lows have become much less frequent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, Torch said: So, it is not a solid conclusion that it is due to the snow cover mentioned by a previous poster, but probably a combination of factors as what is almost always the case with weather. Yep and it's the only thing we can say with any certainty at all by comparing the change of minimum temps over time, like over the decades. It also has no connection to snowfall because the 80s lacked big storms. Some of our best winters have had higher mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Anybody else notice the wide range of temps on the 10PM OBS ? RWR from KOKX (cod.edu) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Anybody else notice the wide range of temps on the 10PM OBS ? RWR from KOKX (cod.edu) Radiational cooling--clear skies and calm winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Seems like we've evolved into a seasonable January around here with snow and ice opportunities and possibly some consensus on western ridge,eastern trough for at least the next two weeks. Both GEFS/EPS have been showing low pressure off the coast in the northeast Jan 14-16 for the past two days. That may also be an opportunity for a fairly decent ne USA system as the 500MB trough tends to deepen westward with short waves dropping down the western NAM ridge into the eastern USA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, wdrag said: Seems like we've evolved into a seasonable January around here with snow and ice opportunities and possibly some consensus on western ridge,eastern trough for at least the next two weeks. Both GEFS/EPS have been showing low pressure off the coast in the northeast Jan 14-16 for the past two days. That may also be an opportunity for a fairly decent ne USA system as the 500MB trough tends to deepen westward with short waves dropping down the western NAM ridge into the eastern USA. That timeframe has been showing up for a few days. Big eastern trough along with a nice ridge in the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and milder. Some showers are possible. Initially, there could be some freezing rain, especially north and west of Newark and New York City. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 44° Newark: 46° Philadelphia: 44° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 40.0°; 15-Year: 40.9° Newark: 30-Year: 40.5°; 15-Year: 41.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.8°; 15-Year: 42.8° Another system could bring snow to parts of the region on Friday. Most of the region could be in line for a 1”-3”/2”-4” snowfall, but eastern New England and eastern Suffolk County could see an area of 3”-6” snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Freezing rain/drizzle over much of the area. Even in the city with temps of 33-34, some of the bridges and overpasses are beginning to get slippery. Especially Staten Island crossings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 32degs.(27/36), or -1>>>-3 nowadays. Reached 37 yesterday, 3:30pm. Today: 42-46, wind w., overcast, drizzle. 2"-4" Snow Thurs. night---Fri. 35*(75%RH) here at 6am.{was 32 at midnite}. 40* at 11am. 47* at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That timeframe has been showing up for a few days. Big eastern trough along with a nice ridge in the west. Yeah that's a good timeframe to watch. Much more favorable PNA ridging which is really good for larger snow events here in Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 NWS expanded the WWA to include NYC, Nassau and western Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 New all-time December lowest monthly -PNA for the month at -2.56. So it’s no surprise that the December snowfall was so low around the area. The big rebound in recent days allowed record snows to our south. Plus our first accumulating snow potential of the season in few days. So this just goes to show how important getting a favorable Pacific is for snowfall from the mid-Atlantic to our area. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table 2021 0.19 -0.31 -0.97 -1.05 -1.35 0.67 0.56 0.95 0.44 1.13 0.72 -2.56 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 30F Freezing Drizzle Ice on everything Going to be a real problem on roads Photo says it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Sheet of ice here in Metuchen 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I haven't said much about the MJO recently because it's been pretty unclear on modeling what it does moving forward. Which is still the case. NOAA'S update actually made a note about that in the update on Monday: •MJO propagation has stalled near the Date Line, likely due to the destructive interference with La Niña. •Dynamical models exhibit large spread regarding the evolution of the MJO over the next 2 weeks, with a meandering intraseasonal signal depicted in the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles. •Tropical cyclone formation remains possible across the South Pacific during the next week, consistent with the current MJO signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 51 minutes ago, weathermedic said: Freezing rain/drizzle over much of the area. Even in the city with temps of 33-34, some of the bridges and overpasses are beginning to get slippery. Especially Staten Island crossings. More ice than I expected here. Boston Rd in the bx was littered with accidents and completely closed approaching the Westchester border. I could hear the bumper cars overnight. Temp 33 now. That overnight freezing rain is sneaky when it's quiet out and has a chance to form a glaze at marginal temps without the constant flow of traffic during the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 26 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: 30F Freezing Drizzle Ice on everything Going to be a real problem on roads Photo says it all Henry Hudson was a skating rink. Cars smashed everywhere, i cant believe i made it through without an issue. Thank God I get to work an hour early to avoid most disasters. My trip down from Dutchess was uneventful, some spotty rain here and there and i dont even think the roads were salted. I saw more salt on the roads as i approached Westchester. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Daylight should help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Had some glaze here which is melting now with light plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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