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37 minutes ago, SHELEG said:
40 minutes ago, SHELEG said:

With all that in mind it’s a great stretch to to say that last nights airmass would have produced single digits in NYC 25 years ago. as in 1997 no way.

I agree in regards to the nyc urban heat island. It  hasn’t changed much in comparison to other city’s to our south which have experienced much more growth. In fact the NYC heat island was fully functional as early as the early 1900s. 
It’s impossible to say what any given airmass would have been like 25 years ago though. This wasn’t a true arctic cold shot with strong CAA to begin with. 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I agree in regards to the nyc urban heat island. It  hasn’t changed much in comparison to other city’s to our south which have experienced much more growth. In fact the NYC heat island was fully functional as early as the early 1900s. 
It’s impossible to say what any given airmass would have been like 25 years ago though. This wasn’t a true arctic cold shot with strong CAA to begin with. 

The only real conclusions we can draw are that single digit and below zero lows have become much less frequent.

 

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14 minutes ago, Torch said:

So, it is not a solid conclusion that it is due to the snow cover mentioned by a previous poster, but probably a combination of factors as what is almost always the case with weather.

Yep and it's the only thing we can say with any certainty at all by comparing the change of minimum temps over time, like over the decades.

It also has no connection to snowfall because the 80s lacked big storms.  Some of our best winters have had higher mins.

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Seems like we've evolved into a seasonable January around here with snow and ice opportunities and possibly some consensus on western ridge,eastern trough for at least the next two weeks.

Both GEFS/EPS have been showing low pressure off the coast in the northeast Jan 14-16 for the past two days.  That may also be an opportunity for a fairly decent ne USA system as the 500MB trough tends to deepen westward with short waves dropping down the western NAM ridge into the eastern USA. 

 

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3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Seems like we've evolved into a seasonable January around here with snow and ice opportunities and possibly some consensus on western ridge,eastern trough for at least the next two weeks.

Both GEFS/EPS have been showing low pressure off the coast in the northeast Jan 14-16 for the past two days.  That may also be an opportunity for a fairly decent ne USA system as the 500MB trough tends to deepen westward with short waves dropping down the western NAM ridge into the eastern USA. 

 

That timeframe has been showing up for a few days. Big eastern trough along with a nice ridge in the west.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy and milder. Some showers are possible. Initially, there could be some freezing rain, especially north and west of Newark and New York City. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 44°

Newark: 46°

Philadelphia: 44°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.0°; 15-Year: 40.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 40.5°; 15-Year: 41.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.8°; 15-Year: 42.8°

Another system could bring snow to parts of the region on Friday. Most of the region could be in line for a 1”-3”/2”-4” snowfall, but eastern New England and eastern Suffolk County could see an area of 3”-6” snowfall.

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The next 8 days are averaging 32degs.(27/36), or -1>>>-3 nowadays.

Reached 37 yesterday, 3:30pm.

Today: 42-46, wind w., overcast, drizzle.     2"-4" Snow Thurs. night---Fri.

35*(75%RH) here at 6am.{was 32 at midnite}.      40* at 11am.       47* at 4pm.

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New all-time December lowest monthly -PNA for the month at -2.56. So it’s no surprise that the December snowfall was so low around the area. The big rebound in recent days allowed record snows to our south. Plus our first accumulating snow potential of the season in few days. So this just goes to show how important getting a favorable Pacific is for snowfall from the mid-Atlantic to our area. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

2021   0.19  -0.31  -0.97  -1.05  -1.35   0.67   0.56   0.95   0.44   1.13   0.72  -2.56



B40E5779-49BD-495B-8F8A-74013060AC26.png.9433c7982ce75c86f621b8b9d412589d.png

1211BD81-5951-4535-9119-C4BEF21BE377.thumb.gif.8d7b5590bbb9a6f763053088b07b4ca5.gif

 

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I haven't said much about the MJO recently because it's been pretty unclear on modeling what it does moving forward. Which is still the case. NOAA'S update actually made a note about that in the update on Monday:

•MJO  propagation  has  stalled  near  the  Date  Line,  likely  due  to  the  destructive  interference  with  La Niña. 

•Dynamical  models  exhibit  large  spread  regarding  the  evolution  of  the  MJO  over  the  next  2  weeks, with  a  meandering  intraseasonal  signal  depicted  in  the  GEFS  and  ECMWF  ensembles.

•Tropical  cyclone  formation  remains  possible  across  the  South  Pacific  during  the  next  week, consistent  with  the  current  MJO  signal.

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51 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Freezing rain/drizzle over much of the area. Even in the city with temps of 33-34, some of the bridges and overpasses are beginning to get slippery. Especially Staten Island crossings.

More ice than I expected here. Boston Rd in the bx was littered with accidents and completely closed approaching the Westchester border. I could hear the bumper cars overnight. Temp 33 now. That overnight freezing rain is sneaky when it's quiet out and has a chance to form a glaze at marginal temps without the constant flow of traffic during the day.

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26 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

30F

Freezing Drizzle

Ice on everything

Going to be a real problem on roads

 

Photo says it all

6F51FE45-35EA-4861-8A82-BD3CB24BA29D.jpeg

 

Henry Hudson was a skating rink. Cars smashed everywhere, i cant believe i made it through without an issue. Thank God I get to work an hour early to avoid most disasters. My trip down from Dutchess was uneventful, some spotty rain here and there and i dont even think the roads were salted. I saw more salt on the roads as i approached Westchester. 

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